Missouri Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

Missouri is the heavy favorite in this week four matchup against Vanderbilt, with the point spread set at -21 in favor of the Tigers. The game is scheduled for 4:15 ET on Saturday, September 21st, at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, and can be viewed on SECN. The over/under line is at 53.5 points. Missouri comes in with a 3-0 record, while Vanderbilt is 2-1 on the season.

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Key Information

Vanderbilt is looking to bounce back after a road loss to Georgia State, where they were favored by -8.5 but ended up losing 36-32. This was the Commodores’ first failed cover of the season, and they also lost straight-up, moving to 2-1 for the season. The over/under line for the game was 44.5 points, and the teams combined for 68 points, hitting the over.

Trailing 3-0 after the first quarter, Vanderbilt took a 10-9 lead in the second. However, Georgia State outscored them 10-0 in the third quarter, and despite an 8-point rally in the fourth, the Commodores fell short.

Vanderbilt’s offense, led by quarterback Diego Pavia, put up 381 yards in their 36-32 loss to Georgia State. Pavia threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns, completing 54.5% of his passes and earning a passer rating of 101.83. Eli Stowers was his top target, hauling in nine receptions for 110 yards.

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The Commodores’ offense moved the chains 23 times but struggled to establish the run, finishing with just 111 rushing yards on 33 attempts. Sedrick Alexander led the ground game with 42 yards on 11 carries and added a rushing touchdown.

Vanderbilt’s defense will be looking for a better performance after giving up 426 total yards and 36 points in their most recent game. They allowed 269 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air, and Georgia State completed 26 of 41 pass attempts. On the ground, the Commodores gave up 157 yards and one rushing touchdown. Vanderbilt’s defense did manage to come up with one interception in the game.

Missouri is off to a strong start this season, moving to 3-0 after a 27-21 win over Boston College. The Tigers, who were -14.5 point favorites, won the game but failed to cover the spread. The over/under line was set at 52 points, but the game finished with a total of 48 points, hitting the under.

Missouri trailed 7-3 after the first quarter but managed to take a 17-14 lead by halftime. The Tigers extended their lead to 24-14 in the third quarter, and despite Boston College narrowing the gap in the fourth quarter, Missouri held on for the win.

Quarterback Brady Cook led Missouri’s offense to a 27-21 win over Boston College, throwing for 264 yards and completing 70% of his passes. Cook’s top target was Luther Burden III, who caught six passes for 117 yards and a touchdown.

The Tigers’ offense totaled 448 yards, with 184 yards coming on the ground. Nate Noel was the leading rusher, gaining 121 yards on 22 carries. Missouri’s offense moved the chains 22 times, and they found the end zone once on the ground and once through the air.

Missouri’s defense gave up 249 passing yards in their most recent game, but they managed to come up with two interceptions. Overall, they allowed 298 total yards and 27 points. The Tigers’ run defense was solid, holding Boston College to just 49 rushing yards on 26 attempts.

Missouri is favored by -21 points in their week four matchup against Vanderbilt. We expect the Tigers to win by a score of 35-12, making them the pick to cover the spread as the heavy favorite at home.

With the over/under line set at 53.5 points, our projection of 47 total points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this game.

Missouri Hosts Improved Vanderbilt in SEC Opener

No. 7 Missouri will kick off their Southeastern Conference (SEC) campaign this Saturday, hosting an improved Vanderbilt team at Faurot Field. After a shaky Week 3 performance, the Tigers hope to capitalize on their recent momentum, while the Commodores aim to bounce back from a tough loss.

Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC) survived an 11-point second-quarter deficit to defeat Boston College 27-21 last week, a victory that served as a valuable learning experience for a team still finding its rhythm. Vanderbilt (2-1, 0-0 SEC), on the other hand, is eager to recover from a disappointing 36-32 loss to Georgia State.

Missouri Builds Confidence from Adversity

In their first two games of the season, Missouri cruised past Murray State and Buffalo, winning 51-0 and 38-0, respectively. But in Week 3, they faced adversity for the first time, and it was a crucial test of character for the Tigers.

“For us to have to face some adversity and then figure out who we are, who we can count on, what you’re going to do when your back’s against the wall and you’re tired—that was really important,” said Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz.

Quarterback Brady Cook led the charge in the comeback win, completing 69-of-97 passes for 720 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception on the season. Cook has also shown his mobility, rushing for 90 yards and four touchdowns. However, the passing game hasn’t quite hit full stride yet, as Cook has faced heavy pressure from opposing defenses.

“We’ve got to firm up the middle of the pocket,” Drinkwitz emphasized. “When we have confusion about what we’re doing in protection, we’ve still got to be solid.”

The Tigers have showcased a balanced offense, alternating between running backs Nate Noel (242 yards, two touchdowns) and Marcus Carroll (151 yards, one touchdown). Wide receivers Theo Wease Jr. (21 catches, 232 yards) and Luther Burden III (13 catches, 181 yards, two touchdowns) have been Cook’s primary targets, and Missouri’s deep receiving corps has the potential to cause headaches for defenses as the season progresses.

Defensively, Missouri has been solid, especially against the run. The Tigers have held opponents to just 73.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 19th in the nation in that category.

Vanderbilt Seeks Redemption After Heartbreaking Loss

Vanderbilt’s 36-32 loss to Georgia State was a bitter pill to swallow. After rallying from a 29-17 fourth-quarter deficit, the Commodores allowed a last-minute touchdown drive that sealed their defeat. For head coach Clark Lea, the problem wasn’t physical preparation but mental focus.

“It wasn’t the physical work that bothered me last week,” Lea explained. “It was more along the lines of focus and approach. Guys being on time, being disciplined, being consistent.”

The Commodores have shown flashes of promise this season, with dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia leading the charge. Pavia has completed 40-of-62 passes for 543 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 195 yards and two additional scores. Running back Sedrick Alexander (165 yards, three touchdowns) and tight end Eli Stowers (12 catches, 163 yards, one touchdown) have been consistent offensive contributors.

Vanderbilt’s early season success included a 34-27 overtime victory over Virginia Tech and a 55-0 rout of Alcorn State. Now, they hope to regain that form against a strong Missouri team.

Injury Concerns for Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s defense, which has been hit hard by injuries, will be a key factor in this matchup. Edge defenders Khordae Sydnor and Boubacar Diakite missed the Georgia State game, while defensive lineman Zaylin Wood and safety De’Rickey Wright were injured during the game. Wood is unlikely to play against Missouri, and Sydnor remains questionable. Safety CJ Taylor could also miss the first half due to a targeting penalty.

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These absences may leave the Commodores vulnerable, especially against Missouri’s talented offense.

“Vandy, I think, has always been a very difficult out for us,” said Missouri’s Drinkwitz. “This is Clark’s best team since he’s been there.”

Lea knows his team has a tough challenge ahead.

“We’ve got to find different ways to get things done because they’re big, they’re powerful, super strong, athletic,” Lea said about Missouri. “Everything that you would think of when it comes to an SEC team.”

Key to the Game: Discipline and Penalties

Both teams will need to clean up their penalties to succeed in this SEC opener. Vanderbilt was penalized nine times for 85 yards against Georgia State, while Missouri committed eight penalties for 91 yards in their win over Boston College.

“The lack of discipline is the result of lack of accountability,” Drinkwitz said, emphasizing the need for improvement. “Selfish penalties cannot happen. The team’s mission is way more important than any individual’s hurt feelings.”

For Missouri, limiting mistakes and shoring up protection for Cook will be critical in their SEC opener. For Vanderbilt, maintaining focus and discipline, while overcoming injuries, will be the key to competing against the Tigers.

Conclusion: A Tough SEC Battle Ahead

As the two teams gear up for their most memorable SEC trial of the season, Missouri hopes to maintain its undefeated record, while Vanderbilt desires to demonstrate they can compete with a top-level gathering rival. With the two squads looking to address discipline issues and overcome their individual challenges, this game is shaping up to be a wild battle.

Missouri will lean on its profundity and balanced play to control the game, while Vanderbilt aims to fight at a surprisingly high level and demonstrate they can hang with the best in the SEC.