Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

ESPN will be covering the week four matchup between the Florida Gators and Mississippi State Bulldogs, scheduled for 12:00 ET on Saturday, September 21st, at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. The Gators are favored at -5.5 points, with the over/under line set at 58 points. Both teams come into this game with a 1-2 record for the season.

Florida vs. Mississippi State Key Information

Florida is looking to bounce back after a 33-20 loss to Texas A&M in their most recent game. The Gators, who were +3 point underdogs at home, not only lost straight-up but also failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 53 points surpassed the over/under line of 45.5 points, resulting in an over. This game dropped Florida’s record to 1-2 for the season.

Florida fell behind early, with Texas A&M taking a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. The Gators were unable to score in the second quarter, heading into halftime down 20-0. They managed to close the gap to 20-14 by the end of the third quarter, but Texas A&M added a field goal in the fourth quarter before Florida scored again, making the final score 33-20.

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Florida’s offense, led by quarterback Graham Mertz, put up 301 total yards in their 33-20 loss to Texas A&M. Mertz completed 12 of 15 passes for 195 yards and one touchdown, ending the game with a passer rating of 113.19. The Gators’ passing game accounted for 249 yards, with Mertz’s three interceptions being the only blemish.

On the ground, Florida managed just 52 yards rushing on 25 attempts. Treyaun Webb was the team’s top rusher, gaining 37 yards on six carries. Elijhah Badger led the receiving corps with five receptions for 94 yards.

Florida’s defense will be looking for a major improvement after giving up 488 total yards to Texas A&M. The Gators were especially vulnerable against the run, allowing 310 yards on the ground and 7.6 yards per carry. They also struggled to get off the field, giving up 27 first downs. Despite holding the Aggies to 178 passing yards on 11 completions, Florida’s defense allowed two passing touchdowns.

Mississippi State is looking to bounce back after a 41-17 loss to Toledo in their last game. The Bulldogs, who were -10.5 point favorites, not only lost straight-up but also failed to cover the spread. This game’s total was set at 57.5 points, with the teams combining for 58 points.

After falling behind 7-0 early, Mississippi State was outscored 21-3 in the second quarter, putting them in a deep hole at halftime. The Bulldogs managed to add a touchdown in the third quarter, but Toledo matched it, and Mississippi State’s 7-6 advantage in the fourth quarter was not enough to overcome the deficit.

Mississippi State’s offense, led by quarterback Blake Shapen, totaled 385 yards in their 41-17 loss to Toledo. Shapen completed 71.8% of his passes for 319 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception, resulting in a passer rating of 102.4. Kevin Coleman Jr. was his top target, catching seven passes for 77 yards.

The Bulldogs’ offense moved the chains 21 times but struggled to establish a run game, finishing with just 66 rushing yards on 27 attempts. Johnnie Daniels was the leading rusher, gaining 59 yards on 10 carries.

Mississippi State’s defense will be looking to bounce back after giving up 454 total yards and 41 points to Toledo. The Bulldogs struggled to contain Toledo’s passing attack, allowing 285 yards and three touchdowns through the air. On the ground, they gave up 169 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Overall, Mississippi State allowed 26 first downs in the game.

Florida is favored by -5.5 points in their week four matchup against Mississippi State, but we like the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Our projected final score is 32-28 in favor of the Gators, but the Bulldogs should cover the spread as home underdogs.

With the over/under line set at 58 points, our projection of 60 total points suggests taking the over as the best play for this game.

Gators Stick with Two-QB System as They Prepare for Mississippi State

As the Florida Gators prepare to face Mississippi State in Starkville this Saturday, the two teams are needing a success to salvage their seasons. The Gators (1-2, 0-1 SEC) have had an unpleasant start, featured by a season-opening victory misfortune to Miami and a disappointing 33-20 home defeat to Texas A&M last end of the week. Similarly, Mississippi State (1-2) is also faltering from an extreme stretch, punctuated by a 41-17 misfortune to Toledo, their most unbalanced nonconference home defeat in nearly two decades.

For Florida, third-year head coach Billy Napier is under increasing strain, with fans and intellectuals already speculating about his future. Meanwhile, first-year Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby is also searching for answers after his team’s sluggish start.

Florida’s Quarterback Conundrum Continues

Florida’s offensive strategy has revolved around the use of two quarterbacks, and Napier has shown no signs of moving away from this approach. Senior Graham Mertz and freshman DJ Lagway have both seen action this season, and Napier plans to stick with the dual-quarterback system moving forward.

“The impressive thing to me is just how both these guys have handled themselves, how they’re working together, the camaraderie they have,” Napier said. “Ultimately, my expectation is they both prepare well, they both practice well and they both play lights-out when given a chance.”

Mertz, the more experienced of the two, has been the primary starter so far, but Lagway’s athleticism and potential have earned him significant playing time. Napier’s decision to rotate quarterbacks has been met with mixed results, and some critics have suggested that the lack of consistency under center has contributed to the Gators’ slow start.

Despite the criticism, Napier believes the two-QB system is the best approach for now, allowing both players to develop and showcase their strengths. As the Gators head into their first SEC road game of the season, the quarterback situation will continue to be a focal point of their offensive strategy.

Napier Under Pressure to Turn Things Around

The Gators’ 1-2 start has sparked speculation about Napier’s future, with many questioning whether he can turn the program around after two lackluster seasons. Since taking over, Napier’s teams have gone a combined 11-14, a far cry from the championship expectations that come with coaching at a school with Florida’s storied history.

“Everything that happens within our team and organization is my responsibility,” Napier said, acknowledging the growing pressure. “This place has great history and tradition. You want to get it back there. It’s one of the reasons you take the job and accept the challenge.”

Florida fans have been eager for the Gators to return to prominence in the SEC, and patience is running thin. A win against Mississippi State would go a long way toward restoring some confidence in the program, but a loss could deepen the questions surrounding Napier’s tenure.

Mississippi State’s Offensive Struggles

Mississippi State’s first-year head coach Jeff Lebby is also feeling the heat after his team’s sluggish start to the season. The Bulldogs’ recent 41-17 loss to Toledo at home was particularly alarming, as it marked the program’s most lopsided nonconference home defeat since 2006.

“Both sides of the ball, the self-inflicted wounds and the facts of not being able to get out of our own way at times was probably the most disappointing thing,” Lebby said, reflecting on the loss.

Mississippi State’s offense has been particularly problematic, failing to gain a first down on its first three possessions against Toledo and not scoring a touchdown until the third quarter. Lebby pointed to negative plays and missed opportunities as key factors in the team’s struggles.

“Negative plays on the first three drives of the game put us in such bad situations,” Lebby said. “The messaging to our guys is focusing incredibly small, everybody understanding we’ve got this job to do, us as coaches and us as players, and to just do our job and focus solely on that.”

With the Bulldogs preparing for their SEC opener against Florida, the focus will be on executing better offensively and avoiding the mistakes that have plagued them in the early part of the season.

Keys to Victory for Both Teams

For Florida, cleaning up their hostile execution will be crucial, especially as they keep on navigating the two-quarterback system. The Gators need a more predictable passing attack from Mertz and Lagway, while also depending on their surging game to assist with controlling the tempo.

Protectively, Florida should apply pressure early and frequently to upset Mississippi State’s rhythm, particularly as the Bulldogs have attempted to get moving unpleasantly.

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Mississippi State, then again, must figure out how to generate more offense in the early stages of the game. Their inability to move the ball actually in the first half has placed them in quite a while, and they’ll have to avoid exorbitant mistakes against Florida’s guard.

The two teams are searching for a spark to turn their seasons around, and this matchup could be pivotal for each program. For Florida, quieting the developing questions about Napier’s leadership is a chance. For Mississippi State, it’s a chance for Jeff Lebby to get a much-required success and establish his team’s character moving forward.

A Must-Win Situation for The two Teams

As Florida and Mississippi State square off in Starkville, obviously the two programs are facing crucial moments in their seasons. A success for either team could give a much-required increase in certainty and momentum as they go on through the challenging SEC timetable.

For Florida, the emphasis will be on staying trained and tracking down hostile consistency, while Mississippi State should sharpen their execution and avoid the early-game battles that have kept them down. With the two teams hungry for a triumph, this SEC matchup promises to be a hard-taken on conflict.