Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions September 19th 2024

Thursday’s Twins vs. Guardians game has a first pitch set for 1:10 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are 88-65 and are starting Joey Cantillo, while the Twins are starting Simeon Woods Richardson and are 80-72.

BSN will be televising Thursday’s Twins vs. Guardians matchup, and the Guardians are the slight favorite on the money line, with the odds sitting at -114 compared to the Twins at -104. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.

Minnesota vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Twins at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Thursday, September 19th
• Betting Odds CLE -114 | MIN -104 O/U 8.5

The Twins Can Win If…

Right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 4.08. Woods Richardson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.25, and he has turned in seven quality starts. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had given up two earned runs in three straight outings. Woods Richardson has allowed at least one homer in three straight starts.

Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as his 22 homers are the best mark on the team. He also comes into the game swinging a hot bat, going 10/32 (.312) with two homers over his last eight games. Ryan Jeffers and Willi Castro are also near the top of the Twins’ home run list, with 20 and 12 homers, respectively. Jeffers is 2nd on the team with 62 RBIs, while Castro is 3rd with 57.

As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game and are 10th in the league in home runs. They are also one of the better slugging teams in the league, with a team slugging percentage of .419. Collectively, the Twins are batting .249, which is the 7th best mark in the league.

• The Twins are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Twins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Minnesota has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Twins have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Twins are 3-7
• Looking back across the Twins last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Minnesota has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Twins have averaged 2.7 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Joey Cantillo will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that start vs. the Rays, he went five innings and gave up six hits. Looking back further, Cantillo has made six starts and has a record of 2-3. His ERA for the season is 4.99, along with a WHIP of 1.17. Opposing batters are hitting .222 off Cantillo this season. So far, he has turned in one quality start and is averaging 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Cantillo has given up six homers. Per nine innings, he is allowing 2.93 walks.

The Guardians offense has been pretty solid this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .238, which is 14th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in terms of avoiding strikeouts.

José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have been the team’s top power hitters this season, with 35 and 31 home runs, respectively. Both players are also near the top of the league in terms of RBIs. Naylor has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 6/19 with two homers over his last five games. Lane Thomas has also hit two homers in his last five games but is batting just .158 over that stretch.

• The Guardians are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 3.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 6-4
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

Guardians Aim to Continue Comeback Magic in Series Finale Against Twins

The Cleveland Guardians are playing with a postseason mindset as they prepare to wrap up their four-game series against the Minnesota Twins on Thursday afternoon. The Guardians (88-65) have been relentless in their pursuit of the AL Central title and showed their resilience once again with a thrilling 5-4 extra-inning victory on Wednesday. They now sit comfortably atop the division and look to build momentum as the postseason nears.

Meanwhile, the Twins (80-72) are fighting for the final AL wild-card spot, but their recent struggles, including dropping nine of 12 matchups against Cleveland this season, have hurt their postseason chances. As both teams gear up for the series finale, the stakes are high for Minnesota, while Cleveland looks to solidify their standing.

Guardians’ Late-Game Heroics Continue

Cleveland’s success has been fueled by their relentless ability to come from behind. Wednesday’s game was no exception, with Josh Naylor leading the charge, hitting two game-tying solo home runs, and Brayan Rocchio delivering the game-winning RBI single in the 10th inning. The Guardians have an MLB-leading 41 comeback wins this season, a testament to their never-quit attitude.

Manager Stephen Vogt praised his team’s resilience, saying, “When you come from behind late or outlast a team in extra innings, it gives you confidence that we can win big games.” That confidence will be key as they make their push toward the postseason.

Naylor has been particularly impactful, with 31 home runs and clutch hitting driving Cleveland’s offense. His recent hot streak includes batting .320 with three home runs and 13 RBIs over his last 19 games, a critical factor as the Guardians inch closer to the playoffs.

Cantillo Looks to Continue Recent Success

The Guardians will send left-hander Joey Cantillo (2-3, 4.99 ERA) to the mound, hoping to extend their series dominance. After a rocky start to his MLB career, Cantillo has found his form in September, allowing just one run over 12 innings in his last two starts while striking out 16 batters. In his most recent outing, Cantillo pitched five scoreless innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, giving up just three hits and leading Cleveland to a 6-1 victory.

Cantillo’s previous outing against Minnesota, on Aug. 9, saw him allow three runs over 5 2/3 innings, including home runs to Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers. He’ll be looking for redemption as he continues to show growth heading into 2024.

Twins Struggling to Stay Afloat

The Twins are in a precarious spot, clinging to the final AL wild-card berth with the season winding down. They’ve gone 10-19 since Aug. 18, a major factor in their diminishing playoff hopes. Despite their recent struggles, Carlos Correa has been a bright spot, batting .315 since returning from a foot injury. Correa drove in all four of the Twins’ runs on Wednesday, showcasing his ability to deliver in big moments.

Minnesota will turn to right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson (5-5, 4.08 ERA) to help stop the bleeding. The rookie has been reliable throughout the season but has struggled in recent outings, failing to complete five innings in any of his last four starts while posting a 6.89 ERA. Despite his recent woes, Woods Richardson has pitched well against Cleveland, holding a 2.19 ERA in two career starts, although the Twins lost both games.

Key Matchups to Watch

• Josh Naylor vs. Simeon Woods Richardson: Naylor has been on fire lately, and his power will be tested against Woods Richardson, who has allowed at least one home run in three straight starts. Naylor’s ability to deliver in the clutch could be pivotal.
• Joey Cantillo vs. Twins Offense: Cantillo’s recent success will be challenged by a Minnesota lineup that has the potential to hit home runs but has struggled to find consistency. The Guardians will rely on Cantillo to keep the Twins’ sluggers in check and give their bullpen a breather.

What’s at Stake

For the Guardians, the goal is clear: maintain momentum and build confidence as they close in on a division title. Their strong form, especially in comeback situations, has them poised for a playoff run. For the Twins, Thursday’s game is a must-win if they hope to keep pace in the wild-card race. A loss could significantly damage their postseason aspirations.

With Joey Cantillo continuing to impress and Simeon Woods Richardson struggling, the advantage seems to lie with Cleveland, but in a game where both teams have so much to play for, anything can happen.

The Lean

For a money-line pick, our lean would be to take the Twins to come out on top. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 4th lowest-scoring game of the day, and this one has the 2nd lowest combined hits projection. Minnesota is 7th in our home run projection, and Simeon Woods Richardson is 14th in our starting pitcher strikeout projection compared to Joey Cantillo, who is 2nd best.