Indianapolis Colts vs Chicago Bears Picks and Predictions September 22nd 2024

Bears, Colts eager to define identity growing pains for young QBs

The over/under line is set at 43 points for the week three non-conference matchup between the Bears and Colts. The game, which kicks off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Colts are the slight favorite with a -1.5 point spread and money line odds of -121. You can catch the game on CBS.

Chicago vs. Indianapolis Key Information

• Teams: Bears at Colts
• Where: Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis
• Date: Sunday, September 22nd
• Betting Odds IND -121 | CHI +100 O/U 43

The Bears Can Win If…

The Bears are now 1-1 after their 19-13 loss to the Texans. Chicago’s only touchdown came from Khalil Herbert with just over a minute left in the 2nd quarter, bringing the score to 16-10 in favor of Houston. The Bears initially tied the game at 3 in the 1st quarter, but the Texans took control in the 2nd quarter, scoring 10 unanswered points until Herbert’s touchdown.Chicago’s defense couldn’t keep the Texans out of the endzone in the 4th quarter, as Houston added a late touchdown to put the game out of reach. Chicago did manage to keep the game close, as they were +6.5 point underdogs and their 6-point loss meant they covered the spread. The combined 32 points was lower than the over/under line of 45.5 points.

The Bears’ offense struggled in their 19-13 loss to the Texans, managing just 134 yards passing. Chicago’s offensive line allowed seven sacks, and they finished with a passer rating of only 50. The running game didn’t help much, with just 71 yards on 22 attempts.

Quarterback Caleb Williams threw for 174 yards, completing 23 of 37 passes, but he didn’t manage any touchdowns and threw two interceptions. Williams also led the team in rushing with 44 yards, while DJ Moore was the leading receiver with 53 yards.

In their 19-13 loss to the Texans, the Bears’ defense allowed 235 passing yards on 23 completions. Despite this, they did hold Houston to a 28.6% conversion rate on third down. Chicago’s run defense was solid, giving up just 75 yards on 22 attempts (3.4 yards per attempt). They also managed three sacks in the game.The Bears’ defense did struggle to generate consistent pressure, as they had a -7 differential in quarterback hits and a -3 differential in tackles for loss. Additionally, they allowed one passing touchdown and a 63.9% completion percentage to Houston.

• Across Chicago’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. They have held up well vs the spread in these matchups, going 2-1 as well as an over-under record of 0-3.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Chicago has a record of 6-4. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-2-1 and an over-under mark of 3-7.

The Colts Can Win If…

The Colts’ most recent game ended in a 16-10 loss to the Packers, dropping their season record to 0-2. Despite being on the road, the Colts were actually favored by -2.5 in this one. The 26 combined points were lower than the over/under line of 41.5 points. Indianapolis didn’t just lose straight-up, they also failed to cover the spread with their 6-point loss.Indianapolis fell behind early, as the Packers led 10-0 after the 1st quarter. The Colts managed to kick a field goal in the 3rd quarter and added a late touchdown in the 4th, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the early deficit. This one was tied at 13 until the Packers retook the lead with a touchdown with 10:54 remaining in the 4th. The Colts took a 28-16 lead over the Packers in the 4th quarter, but the Packers came back to win 35-28.

In their 16-10 loss to the Packers, the Colts’ offense struggled to move the ball consistently, finishing with just 19 first downs and 198 yards passing. They did have some success in the running game, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt on 18 rushes, but they only managed 140 yards on the ground. The passing game was hurt by three interceptions and a 50% completion rate for quarterback Anthony Richardson, who threw for 204 yards and one touchdown.Jonathan Taylor led the team with 103 yards rushing, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, but he only had 12 carries. Alec Pierce was the top receiver with 56 yards and one touchdown. The Colts also struggled on third down, converting only 22.2% of their third down attempts.

Despite their struggles against the run, the Colts’ defense limited the Packers to just 122 yards passing in their 16-10 loss. Green Bay ran for 261 yards on 53 attempts, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Indianapolis allowed one passing touchdown and struggled to get off the field, as the Packers converted 58.8% of their third down attempts.

The Colts’ defense didn’t record a sack in this game and allowed the Packers to complete 85.7% of their passes. However, they did manage to outperform Green Bay in tackles for loss, even though they lost the QB hit differential.

• Across Indianapolis’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Against the spread, Indianapolis went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Across Indianapolis’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 4-6. In these contests, the team went just 5-5 against the spread, while going 8-2 on the over-under.

The Lean

Our model has the Bears coming out on top by a score of 26-20 in this week three matchup between the Bears and Colts. With the point spread sitting at -1.5 in favor of the Bears, we like Chicago to cover as road favorites.

For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 46 points and the O/U line currently at 43 points.

The Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts are entering Week 3 of the NFL season facing significant growing pains as they navigate the challenges of developing young quarterbacks. Both teams are grappling with offensive struggles, protection issues, and early season adversity that will play a critical role in shaping their identity for the remainder of the season.

Bears’ Caleb Williams: Battling Pressure and Protection Problems

The Chicago Bears selected quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, expecting him to be the centerpiece of their offensive rebuild. However, through two games, Williams has struggled to find his rhythm, largely due to heavy pressure from opposing defenses. In Week 2 against the Houston Texans, Williams was sacked seven times and hit repeatedly, raising concerns about the Bears’ offensive line.

Despite these issues, head coach Matt Eberflus has expressed confidence in his rookie quarterback and the offensive unit, insisting that there will be “no changes” to the personnel tasked with protecting Williams. The coach highlighted the learning opportunities that come with these early struggles. “There’s some great learning moments there in terms of the pressure,” Eberflus said, acknowledging the growing pains but remaining optimistic.

Williams’ performance has been underwhelming so far. He leads the Bears in rushing yards with just 59, and has thrown no touchdown passes while completing only one throw over 20 yards. His struggles have been particularly pronounced under pressure, with a completion percentage below 35% and two interceptions when blitzed by Houston. However, Williams recognizes the challenge, stating, “I’m a little bruised up still… Body-wise, moving all of that, I feel good throwing and running around.”

The Bears’ offense managed a comeback victory in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans, overcoming a 17-point deficit with just 148 yards of total offense. But the lack of consistency has been troubling, and the team has converted just 26.7% of their third downs, signaling that the offense has yet to find its groove.

Offensive Identity: Run-First or Pass-First?

The Bears’ offense, under new coordinator Shane Waldron, has shown a lack of direction. With a run-pass ratio of 44-66 through two games, the team appears uncertain about its identity. DJ Moore, the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, voiced his frustration after the Week 2 loss, emphasizing the need for clarity. “We need to hone in on our identity, whether it’s going to be running the ball or passing the ball,” Moore said.

Moore was not listed on the injury report, but other key players, including wide receivers Keenan Allen (heel) and Rome Odunze (knee), are not at full strength. The Bears’ injury concerns extend to the offensive line, with guards Teven Jenkins (thigh) and Nate Davis (groin) potentially missing Sunday’s game against the Colts.

Colts’ Anthony Richardson: Growing Pains and Turnovers

Much like the Bears, the Indianapolis Colts are relying on a young quarterback, Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Richardson, making his seventh career start, has also struggled with turnovers and the overall speed of the NFL game. His three interceptions in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers highlight the adjustment period he faces. With a passer rating of 63.1, Richardson is still finding his way in the Colts’ offense.

Head coach Shane Steichen, who previously helped develop Justin Herbert with the Los Angeles Chargers, is taking a patient approach with Richardson. Steichen emphasized that progress takes time, pointing to Herbert’s improvement during his rookie season. “As long as the ball is going to the right spot, it just takes time. It’s a process going through this thing with young quarterbacks. But he’s a helluva football player, and we’re excited to have him,” Steichen said.

Despite Richardson’s turnovers, the Colts have been able to lean on their strong running game. Richardson has rushed for 93 yards on 10 carries, and star running back Jonathan Taylor has added 151 rushing yards, giving the Colts a balanced offensive attack. However, the passing game must improve if Indianapolis hopes to compete consistently.

Offensive Line and Injury Concerns

Both teams face critical offensive line issues, which have directly impacted their young quarterbacks. The Bears’ offensive line has been overwhelmed by opposing defenses, and Williams has taken the brunt of it, being sacked nine times in two games. Chicago’s health concerns extend to the offensive line, with key guards Teven Jenkins and Nate Davis both potentially missing Sunday’s game.

For the Colts, the absence of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who landed on injured reserve with an ankle injury, weakens their front line, particularly against the run. Buckner’s injury is a major setback, and Colts coach Shane Steichen called it a “huge blow” to the team. Indianapolis may have to rely on rookie defensive end Laiatu Latu, who is also battling a hip injury, to step up and fill the void.

Defensive Matchups: Opportunities for Both Teams

Sunday’s matchup between the Bears and Colts could come down to which team is better able to exploit the other’s vulnerabilities. For the Bears, the Colts’ reconfigured defensive front presents an opportunity to test their run game. Indianapolis has allowed 474 rushing yards through two games and an average of 5.1 yards per carry, making it a potential weakness for the Bears to attack.

The Colts, meanwhile, will likely rely on their ground game to counter Chicago’s aggressive front seven. The Bears’ defense has shown flashes of brilliance, including four takeaways and a blocked punt, and will look to capitalize on Richardson’s inexperience and turnover tendencies. Richardson’s mobility, however, could pose a challenge to the Bears’ defense, as the Colts have been effective running the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per carry.

Coaching Connections and Strategy

Sunday’s game also marks a return to familiar territory for Bears head coach Matt Eberflus, who previously served as the Colts’ defensive coordinator before being hired by Chicago. Eberflus is familiar with the Colts’ personnel and schemes, which could give the Bears a strategic advantage. However, his tenure as Bears head coach has been challenging, with an overall record of 11-25, and he faces increasing pressure to turn the team around.

For Shane Steichen, the focus will be on continuing to develop Richardson while finding a way to start games faster. The Colts have struggled offensively in the early stages of games, scoring just 16 points in the first three quarters of their first two contests. Steichen believes that getting wide receiver Josh Downs back on the field will help, as he and Richardson had a strong connection last season. Downs could provide a valuable outlet in the passing game.

Conclusion: A Critical Week 3 Showdown

As the Bears and Colts prepare to face off, both teams are at a crossroads, searching for their offensive identity and looking to solidify the development of their young quarterbacks. For the Bears, protecting Caleb Williams and establishing an offensive direction are key to their success. The Colts, meanwhile, need Anthony Richardson to cut down on turnovers and continue to lean on their powerful running game.

The outcome of Sunday’s game will be a significant milestone in each team’s journey to define their identity, but the growing pains of their young quarterbacks will likely continue to be the central theme as the season progresses.

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