Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Predictions September 22nd 2024

The Falcons, with a money line of +155, will host the Chiefs at 8:20 ET on Sunday, September 22nd at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Chiefs are favored on the road in this non-conference matchup, with their money line at -185 and a point spread of -3.5. This week three game is being televised on NBC, and the over/under line is set at 46.5 points.

Kansas City vs. Atlanta Key Information

Despite trailing for much of the game, the Chiefs pulled off a late comeback to beat the Bengals 26-25, improving to 2-0 for the season. Kansas City had to fight back in the 4th quarter, as they were down 23-25 with 0:48 left on the clock. A late field goal from Harrison Butker sealed the win for the Chiefs. Even though they won, the Chiefs didn’t cover the spread, as they were -6.5 point favorites, and the game was much closer than expected, with a 1 point margin.

The game was tied 3-3 after the 1st quarter, and the Chiefs fell behind in the 2nd quarter after a field goal from Evan McPherson. After trading touchdowns in the 3rd quarter, the Chiefs were down 22-17 heading into the 4th. The Chiefs took a brief 25-23 lead with 9:33 left in the 4th after a touchdown and a two-point conversion, but another field goal from the Bengals put them behind, 25-26, before pulling off the late comeback.

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The Chiefs’ offense finished with 149 yards on the ground on 32 attempts in their 26-25 win over the Bengals, but they struggled through the air, managing just 137 yards on 25 passing attempts. Patrick Mahomes completed 18 of 25 passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw two interceptions. The offense had a tough time on third down, converting only 12.5% of their chances.

Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing with 90 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt and adding 21 yards on 5 receptions. Rashee Rice was the top receiver with 75 yards and a touchdown, including a 44-yard reception. Mahomes also ran for 29 yards.

In their 26-25 win over the Bengals, the Chiefs’ defense gave up 246 passing yards and 74 rushing yards on 22 attempts. The Bengals finished with 320 total yards, converting 30.8% of their third down attempts. Kansas City’s defense recorded three sacks and held Cincinnati to a 63.9% completion percentage.The Chiefs allowed two passing touchdowns in the game, but they did well to limit the Bengals’ ground game, giving up just 3.4 yards per attempt on the 22 rushes. Additionally, Kansas City’s defense had a positive impact on the game, with more tackles for loss and a higher number of quarterback hits than their opponents.

Despite not scoring in the 1st quarter, the Falcons rallied to beat the Eagles 22-21, improving their record to 1-1. Atlanta was +5.5 point underdogs on the road and won straight-up, with the 43 combined points falling short of the O/U line of 46.5 points. The Falcons’ 22 points were capped off by a late touchdown from Kirk Cousins to Drake London with 38 seconds left.

Atlanta took a 15-10 lead in the 3rd quarter with a late 1st quarter touchdown from Jalen Hurts. The Falcons responded with a touchdown of their own, as Kirk Cousins found Darnell Mooney for a 1-yard touchdown with 1:20 remaining. The Falcons capped off the comeback with another touchdown from Mooney, this time with 1:42 remaining in the 4th quarter.

Atlanta’s offense had 22 first downs and 152 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their 22-21 win over the Eagles. The Falcons’ passing game was efficient, with Kirk Cousins completing 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta’s passing attack also had 233 yards, with a completion percentage of 69%.

Bijan Robinson was Atlanta’s top rusher, gaining 97 yards on 14 attempts and adding 25 receiving yards. Darnell Mooney led the team in receiving with 88 yards and a touchdown, including a long catch of 41 yards. The Falcons struggled on third down, converting only 22.2% of their third down attempts.

Despite giving up 186 rushing yards on 37 attempts, the Falcons’ defense helped secure a 22-21 win over the Eagles in their most recent game. The Falcons’ run defense struggled, but they defended the pass well, allowing just 179 yards through the air. Philadelphia finished with 365 total yards, and Atlanta’s defense forced the Eagles to convert on only 46.2% of their third down attempts.

Atlanta’s defense also came up with one interception and limited the Eagles to just one touchdown. They managed one sack and had three more quarterback hits than Philadelphia. The Eagles completed 76.7% of their passes against the Falcons.

Our pick against the spread is to take the Falcons to cover, as they are currently sitting at +3.5 point home underdogs in their week three matchup against the Chiefs. However, despite this line, our model has the Chiefs coming out on top by a score of 25-24.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over with a projected 49 combined points, and with the line sitting at 46.5 points, there is a good amount of value on the over.

Falcons Hope to Ride Monday Night Momentum into Matchup with Chiefs

As the Atlanta Falcons prepare to host the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in a highly anticipated Week 3 Sunday night matchup, both teams are coming off narrow victories that showcased their ability to grind out wins in tightly contested games.

Chiefs Battle-Tested After Close Calls

The Chiefs (2-0) have already had their mettle tested early in the season. In Week 1, they outlasted the Baltimore Ravens 27-20 in a physical contest that was decided in the final minutes. Kansas City followed that up with another dramatic victory in Week 2, as Harrison Butker’s 51-yard field goal with three seconds remaining secured a 31-30 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

For the first time this season, Kansas City will hit the road as they travel to Atlanta for the first time since 2016. The Chiefs have won eight straight games, including last season’s playoff run, but will be without their leading rusher, Isiah Pacheco, who fractured his right fibula during last week’s victory. Pacheco’s absence leaves a hole in the Chiefs’ running game, but Kansas City brought back former running back Kareem Hunt to help fill the void. Hunt, who rushed for over 2,000 yards with the team from 2017-18, is expected to play a key role moving forward.

Despite Pacheco’s injury, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid remains optimistic about his team’s prospects heading into Sunday.

“Looking forward to the challenge of playing the Falcons,” Reid said. “That’s a great environment down there at their stadium. Raheem’s done a heck of a job with that group.”

Falcons Building Momentum After Monday Night Thriller

The Falcons (1-1) avoided a potentially devastating 0-2 start to the season by pulling off a thrilling 22-21 comeback victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. After a lackluster Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta’s offense found its rhythm in the final minutes of the Eagles game, with quarterback Kirk Cousins engineering a game-winning drive.

Cousins, in his first season with the Falcons after signing a four-year, $180 million contract, led the Falcons on a six-play, 70-yard drive in the final 1:39 to steal the win. His poise and leadership have quickly made an impact on the team, as head coach Raheem Morris praised his quarterback’s performance.

“I know what his confidence looks like from practice, from every day walking down the hall with him,” Morris said. “Before the game, we said we’re going to do it for each other, and that’s exactly what they did.”

Now, the Falcons are looking to carry that momentum into their first Sunday Night Football appearance since 2019. With Cousins at the helm and a rejuvenated fan base, Atlanta is seeking to prove they can compete with the NFL’s elite, especially against a team as formidable as the Chiefs.

Mahomes Looks to Rebound

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, a two-time NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP, is coming off a rare underwhelming performance by his standards. Although he threw for two touchdowns in last week’s victory over the Bengals, he was intercepted twice and posted just 151 passing yards—his lowest total since 2019. Despite the down game, Mahomes is still one of the league’s most dangerous playmakers, and the Falcons’ defense will have its hands full trying to contain him.

Mahomes and the Chiefs hold a 7-3 all-time series lead over the Falcons, with Kansas City winning their most recent meeting in 2020. Atlanta, on the other hand, is looking for its first victory over the Chiefs since Week 1 of the 2012 season.

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Key Matchups and Players to Watch

1. Kirk Cousins vs. Chiefs Defense: Cousins showcased his leadership and playmaking ability in Monday’s win, but he’ll face a much tougher challenge in the Chiefs’ defense. How he handles the pressure from Kansas City’s pass rush and secondary will be key to Atlanta’s chances.
2. Patrick Mahomes vs. Falcons Secondary: Mahomes had an off week by his standards, but he’s still the most dynamic quarterback in the game. Atlanta’s defense, particularly its secondary, will need to find ways to slow down the Chiefs’ aerial attack.
3. Kareem Hunt’s Return: With Isiah Pacheco out, Kareem Hunt will be thrust back into action for Kansas City. How quickly he can regain his form and contribute to the Chiefs’ running game will be crucial, especially against a Falcons team that will look to limit Mahomes’ passing opportunities.
4. Falcons’ Running Game: Atlanta’s running back Tyler Allgeier was limited in practice this week, and his status could impact the Falcons’ ability to control the tempo of the game. Atlanta will need a balanced offensive attack to keep Mahomes off the field.

Injury Report

For the Falcons, running back Tyler Allgeier, cornerback Antonio Hamilton Sr., and defensive linemen James Smith-Williams and Ta’Quon Graham were limited in practice this week. Kansas City, meanwhile, has been relatively healthy, with all players fully participating in practice except for Pacheco, who is out for the foreseeable future following surgery.

Final Thoughts

The Falcons hope to build on their thrilling Monday night win and use the energy of a prime-time home game to knock off the Chiefs. Atlanta’s defense will need to be at its best to contain Mahomes, while Cousins will be counted on to lead the offense in what promises to be a high-stakes, competitive game.

For Kansas City, the road to maintaining their perfect record continues as they aim to extend their win streak to nine games. Even without Pacheco, the Chiefs have enough weapons to remain dangerous, and Mahomes will be eager to bounce back after last week’s subpar performance.

With both teams eager to prove themselves under the bright lights, Sunday night’s showdown is shaping up to be a must-watch battle.