Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions September 20th 2024

From Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, we have the Pirates and Reds facing off in an NL Central matchup. The money line odds have the Reds favored at -124, while the Pirates are sitting at +105. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and SN PT is carrying this game on TV.

First pitch for Friday’s matchup is set for 6:40 PM ET. Nick Martinez gets the start for the Reds, and he will be facing off against Mitch Keller. The Reds are 74-80, while the Pirates are 72-81, and the under is 2-115 in this game.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati Key Information

Mitch Keller will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Royals, as he gets the start for the Pirates today. In that September 14th start, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in six innings of work. Keller has given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Looking at his overall numbers, Keller has a record of 11-10 and an ERA of 3.87. Opponents are batting .247 off Keller this season. He has made 29 starts, one complete game, and 15 quality starts this year. Keller’s ERA on the road is 5.34, compared to 3.24 at home.

Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the MLB. This season, they have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, they are near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a collective batting average of .236, which is 15th in the league.

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Bryan Reynolds and Bryan De La Cruz have been the Pirates’ top power threats this season, with Reynolds leading the team with 22 homers and De La Cruz right behind him with 20. Reynolds also comes into the game with a team-high 85 RBIs and a batting average of .280. De La Cruz has struggled of late, going just 2/14 in his last four games. Billy Cook has gone 3/10 in his last four games, including a home run.

Cincinnati starter Nick Martinez has been pitching well lately, as he has picked up the win in each of his last three outings. Most recently, he went six innings vs. the Twins, giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Martinez has made 14 starts, 40 appearances, and has a record of 9-6. His ERA for the season is 3.37, along with a WHIP of 1.08. Opponents are batting .236 off Martinez this year. Out of his 14 starts, Martinez has four quality starts and is averaging 7.29 strikeouts per nine innings.

Elly De La Cruz comes into today’s game as the Reds’ top home run hitter this season, and he is also batting a solid .260 this season. De La Cruz has also been hot of late, as he is currently on a four-game hitting streak. Over his last five games, TJ Friedl has gone 9/19 with two homers and six RBIs. For the season, Friedl is batting .229 with 16 homers.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. This season, they have been a below-average hitting team, with a team batting average of just .233. However, they do have three players with at least 20 homers, and they are 15th in the league in home runs.

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Pirates vs. Reds matchup is to take the Reds to come out on top. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the under, as this is projected to be the 3rd lowest-scoring game of the day. This one has the 8th highest total hits projection and the lowest home run projection. Looking at today’s starters, neither Nick Martinez nor Mitch Keller are big strikeout pitchers, but we have Nick Martinez working deeper into the game for the Reds.

Blake Dunn Aims to Spark Reds as They Face Pirates in Series Opener

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates for a three-game series starting Friday night, rookie Blake Dunn will be looking to give his team a much-needed boost. The Reds (74-80) were officially eliminated from playoff contention earlier in the week after a loss to the Atlanta Braves, followed by a tough 15-3 blowout on Thursday. Despite the disappointment, Dunn’s recent performance has given Reds fans something to cheer about as the team seeks to finish the season on a high note.

Blake Dunn Shines Despite Reds’ Struggles

In Thursday’s loss to Atlanta, Dunn provided a rare bright spot for Cincinnati. The rookie hit his first career major league home run, part of a strong 2-for-3 performance in which he also walked, scored three times, and stole two bases. Dunn’s performance was a reminder that there is still plenty to play for, even as the Reds’ postseason hopes have been dashed.

Reds manager David Bell is hopeful that Dunn can continue to bring energy to the team over the final stretch of the season.

“He was doing well (in the minors at Triple-A Louisville) before he came back to us,” Bell said. “There hadn’t been a lot of playing time. He (and) the other guys that aren’t playing are doing a great job of staying ready. … We like Blake Dunn a lot, so it’s nice to get him into the action.”

Dunn’s emergence could provide a spark for the Reds, who are looking to finish the season strong despite being out of the playoff race. With only a few games remaining, young players like Dunn have an opportunity to make a case for a larger role next season.

Nick Martinez on the Mound for Reds

Veteran right-hander Nick Martinez (9-6, 3.37 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds on Friday. Martinez, 34, has been in excellent form recently, winning each of his last three starts. In his most recent outing, he allowed just one run on three hits over six innings against the Minnesota Twins, continuing his solid stretch of performances.

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While Martinez has been strong this season, his career numbers against the Pirates are less impressive. In five career appearances (one start) against Pittsburgh, he holds an 0-1 record with an 11.12 ERA. He’ll be looking to turn those numbers around as he faces a Pirates team that has already clinched the season series against Cincinnati, leading 7-3 in their head-to-head matchups.

Pirates Seek to Build Off Win Against Cardinals

Like the Reds, the Pirates (72-81) are out of the playoff race, but they’re still looking to finish the season on a positive note. Pittsburgh is coming off a 3-2 win over the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, a game in which they rallied late to take the lead on a go-ahead RBI single from Nick Gonzales in the eighth inning.

Gonzales has been a standout performer for the Pirates recently, hitting .417 (5-for-12) with two doubles, a triple, and two runs in the four-game series against the Cardinals. The rookie infielder has shown flashes of his potential and will be aiming to continue his strong play as the season winds down.

“It’s good to finish strong,” Gonzales said. “I just want to hit on all cylinders. Throughout the year, you’re going to have ups and downs. I’m trying to minimize as much as I can. Try to stay locked in as much as I can.”

Another player on a hot streak for Pittsburgh is infielder Jared Triolo, who has recorded hits in eight of his last 10 games. Over that span, Triolo has gone 11-for-34 (.324) with one home run, one RBI, and five runs scored. The Pirates will be looking for continued contributions from their young players as they face the Reds.

Mitch Keller Takes the Hill for Pirates

The Pirates will counter with right-hander Mitch Keller (11-10, 3.87 ERA), who has struggled recently, losing three consecutive decisions. In his most recent start against the Kansas City Royals, Keller allowed four runs (three earned) over six innings, but the Pirates were unable to provide enough run support.

Keller has had mixed results against the Reds in his career, going 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA over 16 starts. He’ll be looking to snap his losing streak and help the Pirates secure another win against Cincinnati, a team they’ve already beaten seven times this season.

Season Series and Playoff Picture

Friday’s game marks the 11th meeting between the Reds and Pirates this season, with Pittsburgh holding a 7-3 advantage in the season series. While both teams are out of the playoff race, this series represents an opportunity for each team to finish the season on a positive note and build momentum heading into the offseason.

For Cincinnati, the focus will be on giving young players like Blake Dunn more opportunities to showcase their talents, while the Pirates will be looking to carry the good vibes from their recent win over St. Louis into this series.

With both teams playing for pride, Friday’s game could offer a glimpse into the future for both organizations as they evaluate their young talent and set the stage for the 2024 season.