Chi. Cubs vs Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

Kyle Hendricks aims to extends Cubs’ perfect mark vs. Nats

At 2:20 PM ET, the Nationals and Cubs face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Nationals are looking to snap a five-game losing streak. They are 68-86, while the Cubs, who have won two straight, are 79-75.

Chicago is favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -141 compared to the Nationals at +119. Saturday’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and MASN will be televising this one.

Washington vs. Chicago Key Information

• Teams: Nationals at Cubs
• Where: Wrigley Field Chicago
• Date: Saturday, September 21st
• Betting Odds CHC -141 | WSH +119 O/U 8.5

The Nationals Can Win If…

Left-hander MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 9-12 with an ERA of 4.17. Gore’s WHIP for the season is 1.49. In his 30 appearances, he has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 9.57 strikeouts per nine innings. Gore’s last outing came on September 15th, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.

Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 23rd in the MLB. They have also been one of the worst home run-hitting teams in the league, coming in 26th in the league. However, they are batting .242 as a team, which is 11th in the league.

CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have been the Nationals most consistent hitters this season, with Abrams leading the team with 20 homers and a batting average of .246. Garcia Jr. is batting .280 and has gone deep 16 times. Abrams has been especially hot of late, going 10/21 in his last six games.

• The Nationals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Nationals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Washington has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Nationals have an average of 1.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Nationals are 2-8
• Looking back across the Nationals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Washington has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Nationals have averaged 3.2 runs per game on offense

The Cubs Can Win If…

Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing, he picked up the win. For the season, Hendricks is 4-11 with a 6.25 ERA. Looking at his home/away splits, he has an ERA of 8.56 on the road compared to 5.59 at home. Overall, he has made 22 starts, four of which were quality starts. Per nine innings, Hendricks is averaging 6.33 strikeouts and 3.05 walks.

Over his last six games, Nico Hoerner has been on fire, going 11/21 for a batting average of .524. For the season, he is batting .271 and has an OBP of .336. Hoerner has been a tough out for opposing pitchers, as he has struck out just 23 times in 2021. Ian Happ has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/27 in his last six games with two homers.

Happ is the Cubs’ leader in homers this season, with 25, and also leads the team in RBIs, with 85. Seiya Suzuki is right behind him in the home run department, with 21, and has batted .279 for the season. As a team, the Cubs are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest.

• The Cubs are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cubs are 7-3
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Chicago has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 8.0 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our projections have the Cubs putting together a big game on offense today, as they are our top projected run-scoring team in the league today. For a money-line pick, we would be leaning toward the Cubs to come out on top. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would be leaning toward the over, as this is our 2nd highest projected scoring game of the day. Between the two starters, we have Kyle Hendricks as the better strikeout option.

The Chicago Cubs are set to continue their dominance over the Washington Nationals on Saturday afternoon, with Kyle Hendricks aiming to maintain his recent resurgence and extend the Cubs’ perfect record against the Nationals in 2024.

Hendricks’ Resurgence

Cubs’ right-hander Kyle Hendricks has steadily rebounded after a difficult first half of the season. Despite early struggles where he posted a 3-9 record with a 6.86 ERA through July, Hendricks has found his rhythm since August. Excluding an outlier start against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Aug. 28, where he surrendered six runs in just 1⅔ innings, the veteran has posted a solid 3.19 ERA over his last 31 innings.

In his latest outing, Hendricks (4-11, 6.25 ERA) was especially sharp, delivering a standout performance against the Colorado Rockies. He allowed only one run on two hits over six innings, earning a much-needed win. For Hendricks, this form is a testament to his perseverance throughout the season.

“I can’t thank the Cubs enough,” Hendricks said after his win against Colorado. “They kept giving me opportunities I didn’t feel I deserved. All the way through this year, I’m so thankful and grateful to keep going.”

Hendricks will look to capitalize on his past success against the Nationals. In 10 career starts versus Washington, Hendricks boasts a strong 4-2 record with an impressive 2.70 ERA, making him a significant threat heading into Saturday’s game.

Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore Looks to Break Cubs’ Hold

Washington counters with left-hander MacKenzie Gore (9-12, 4.17 ERA), who has experienced mixed results against the Cubs. While Gore is coming off a solid performance against the Miami Marlins, where he pitched six innings of one-run ball (unearned), his track record against Chicago has been less promising. In three career starts, Gore holds a 1-2 record with a 7.04 ERA against the Cubs.

The Nationals’ offense will need to step up to support Gore, who has struggled to contain Chicago’s lineup. Washington managed only five hits in Friday’s 3-1 loss to the Cubs, marking their fifth consecutive defeat. Rookie James Wood provided one of the few bright spots with a solo home run in the eighth inning, but the top of the Nationals’ lineup has been ineffective. Their first five hitters combined to go 1-for-16, a .063 average, in Friday’s game.

“This is the time where you’ve got to buckle in and make that last push,” Wood said. “The offseason is close, but we’ve still got games on the table, and we need to focus on those.”

Cubs’ Playoff Hopes on the Line

For the Cubs (79-75), this game holds considerable importance as they aim to make an improbable run at the postseason. Chicago currently sits six games behind the New York Mets in the race for the final National League wild-card spot, leaving little room for error in their remaining games. However, second baseman Nico Hoerner emphasized that merely competing for a wild-card berth isn’t enough for a franchise with Chicago’s ambitions.

“This is a team and an organization that should not be set up for competing for wild cards,” Hoerner said. “We want to be the class of our division, and we weren’t that this year. Having the division clinched by the Milwaukee Brewers on Sept. 18 is significant.”

With the Cubs needing every win possible to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, Saturday’s game offers a critical opportunity to maintain momentum. Fortunately for Chicago, they’ve had the upper hand against Washington throughout the season, winning all five matchups so far in 2024. Another victory on Saturday would bring them closer to a season sweep and bolster their postseason chances.

Final Thoughts

Kyle Hendricks’ resurgence is a welcome development for the Cubs, and his track record against the Nationals makes him a key figure in Saturday’s matchup. MacKenzie Gore, on the other hand, will be looking to shake off his struggles against Chicago and guide Washington to a much-needed win. However, if Washington’s offense continues to falter, the Cubs’ winning streak over the Nationals could extend further, keeping Chicago’s slim playoff hopes alive.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS