Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions September 22nd 2024

Minnesota heads into Sunday’s matchup vs. the Red Sox looking to move above .500 for the season, as they are 81-73. Boston, meanwhile, has lost two straight and is 76-78 overall. Nick Pivetta will be starting for the Red Sox, and the Twins are going with Pablo Lopez.

There does appear to be a chance of rain in Boston on Sunday, with temperatures expected to be in the upper 50s. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the Twins are favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -135 compared to the Red Sox at +113. This AL matchup can be seen on BSN.

Minnesota vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Twins at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park Boston
• Date: Sunday, September 22nd
• Betting Odds MIN -135 | BOS +113 O/U 7.5

The Twins Can Win If…

Pablo López has been pitching well for the Twins, as he has made 30 starts and has a record of 15-8. His ERA for the season is 3.84, along with a WHIP of 1.15. This year, opponents are batting .243 off López. The right-hander has turned in 18 quality starts and is averaging 9.58 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, López finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts.

Over his last five games, Matt Wallner has been swinging a hot bat for the Twins, going 7/17. Willi Castro has also been swinging the bat well, going 5/17 in that stretch and has one home run. Castro is batting .250 for the season and is 3rd on the team with 58 RBIs. Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers are the top home run hitters for the Twins, with 22 and 20 homers, respectively.

For the season, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are 9th in team batting average and have the 9th best on-base percentage and slugging percentage in the league.

• The Twins are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Twins are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Minnesota has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Twins have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Twins are 3-7
• Looking back across the Twins last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Minnesota has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Twins have averaged 2.7 runs per game on offense

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Sox starter Nick Pivetta finished with a no-decision in each of his last two outings. Most recently, he went 4 2/3 innings vs. the Rays, giving up four earned runs, six hits, and three homers. Against the Orioles on September 11th, he went six innings and gave up just one earned run. Pivetta has made 24 starts this year and has a record of 5-11 with an ERA of 4.37. The right-hander has a WHIP of 1.13 and has issued just 2.15 walks per nine innings compared to 10.88 strikeouts.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They are also one of the best home run hitting teams in the league, and have a team batting average of .252, which is 6th in the MLB. One of the things that has helped the Red Sox offense is that they are the league’s top team in terms of batting average on balls in play.

Rafael Devers has been a key power bat for the Red Sox this season, as his 28 home runs are the 2nd most in the league. He is also leading the team with 83 RBIs and is batting .272. Tyler O’Neill is also a big power threat for the Red Sox, as his 31 homers are the most on the team and 11th in the league. O’Neill is batting just .244 for the season.

• The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 0-5 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 1-8-1 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 1.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 2-8
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense

Twins Aim for Series Victory Behind Red-Hot Pablo López Against Red Sox

The Minnesota Twins continue their playoff push as they face the Boston Red Sox on Saturday, looking to secure a crucial series victory. Fresh off a thrilling 4-2, 12-inning win on Friday night, the Twins (81-73) hold a slim one-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for the final American League wild-card spot. They’ll turn to ace Pablo López to help extend their momentum as the regular season winds down.

Minnesota’s Recent Surge

Minnesota’s offense broke through in the extra innings of Friday’s game, with Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner delivering clutch hits in the 12th inning to secure the win. Despite facing challenges throughout the game, the Twins showed resilience, with eight relievers combining to hold Boston to just five hits and one unearned run in seven innings of relief work.

Twins star Carlos Correa highlighted the team’s perseverance, saying, “The message is simple: Never give up.” The Twins’ top five hitters provided much-needed offensive firepower, each contributing two-hit performances, part of the team’s 13 total hits on the night.

Pablo López’s Hot Streak

Minnesota will send their ace Pablo López (15-8, 3.84 ERA) to the mound on Saturday, riding a wave of stellar performances. Over his last seven starts, López has been nearly unhittable, boasting a 5-0 record with a 1.35 ERA. His most recent outing against Cleveland saw him allow just two runs over 6 1/3 innings, continuing his stretch of dominance.

López has already had success against the Red Sox this season, pitching six strong innings with eight strikeouts while allowing just one run back on May 4. He’ll look to replicate that performance as the Twins fight to solidify their playoff position.

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Boston’s Struggles Continue

The Boston Red Sox (76-78) are facing an uphill battle. With Friday’s loss, the team has now scored three or fewer runs in five straight games, pushing them two games below .500 for the first time since mid-May. A major concern for the Red Sox is their inability to capitalize with runners in scoring position, as they went 1-for-19 in such situations on Friday, striking out a staggering 20 times.

Adding to Boston’s woes, star third baseman Rafael Devers exited Friday’s game with a shoulder injury and is set to undergo an MRI on Saturday. Devers has been dealing with this issue for weeks, and manager Alex Cora hinted that Devers may not return this season, stating, “Probably, this will be it for him.”

On the bright side, Trevor Story has been one of the few positives for Boston recently, batting .375 (9-for-24) over his last six games. However, if Devers is indeed out, the Red Sox will need others to step up in his absence to avoid slipping further down the standings.

Kutter Crawford’s Struggles with the Long Ball

Boston will counter with right-hander Kutter Crawford (8-15, 4.19 ERA), who is looking to snap a six-start losing streak. Crawford has struggled with consistency this season, particularly with the long ball, allowing a league-leading 33 home runs. In his last start, Crawford gave up two critical home runs to Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge, leading to a short 4 1/3-inning outing against the Yankees.

Outlook

With Pablo López on the mound and the Twins’ lineup firing on all cylinders, Minnesota will look to continue its playoff march and secure a series victory against a struggling Red Sox team. Boston, missing key players like Devers and dealing with offensive inconsistency, will need to find a spark to even the series and prevent further damage as their postseason hopes fade.

The Twins, buoyed by their resilience and the dominance of López, appear to have the edge heading into Saturday’s matchup. For Boston, it’s a matter of salvaging pride and finding a way to overcome their recent struggles.

With playoff hopes on the line, all eyes will be on Pablo López as the Twins aim to clinch a critical series victory. Can Boston find a way to bounce back, or will Minnesota continue their postseason surge?

The Lean

Look for the Twins to come out on top in this one, and we are leaning towards taking them on the money line. We have this as the 4th highest-scoring game of the day and the 5th most home run-hitting game. As for an over/under pick, we are leaning towards the over. The Red Sox’s offense has the 3rd worst team strikeout projection, and Nick Pivetta has the 7th worst innings pitched projection among today’s starters.