Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions September 22nd 2024

From Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, we have the Pirates and Reds facing off in an NL Central matchup. The Reds are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at +103, while the Pirates are at -121. The over/under line is at 8 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 1:10 PM ET, and the forecast looks good in Cincinnati with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-60s. Hunter Greene is starting for the Reds, and he will be facing off against Paul Skienes for the Pirates. Cincinnati is 76-80, while the Pirates are 72-83. SN PT will be televising this game.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati Key Information

• Teams: Pirates at Reds
• Where: Great American Ball Park Cincinnati
• Date: Sunday, September 22nd
• Betting Odds PIT -121 | CIN +103 O/U 8

The Pirates Can Win If…

Paul Skenes gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces off against the Reds on the road. This year, he has made 21 starts and has a record of 10-3 with an ERA of 2.07. Skenes’ WHIP for the season is .98, and opponents are batting .198 off the right-hander this year. In his 21 appearances, he has turned in 15 quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Skenes took the loss, going six innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Over his last seven games, Billy Cook has two home runs and is hitting just .250 for the Pirates. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz are both tied for 2nd on the team in homers and have been two of the Pirates’ most consistent hitters, with Cruz batting .268 and De La Cruz at .232.

As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, the Pirates are just 23rd in home runs and are near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

• The Pirates are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 2.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Pirates are 3-7
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 2.4 runs per game on offense

The Reds Can Win If…

Hunter Greene has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 9-4. His ERA is 2.83, along with a WHIP of 1.02. Greene’s batting average allowed is .179, and he has one complete game and 13 quality starts. In his last outing, Greene picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last three outings, he has given up a combined one earned run. Before this stretch, he had given up at least two earned runs in four straight outings. Greene has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 3.70 compared to 2.29 on the road.

Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Reds, going 12/36 in his last nine games with two homers and eight runs scored. Overall, he is hitting .263 for the season and leads the team with 74 RBIs. De La Cruz is also on a six-game hitting streak. TJ Friedl has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 10/28 in his last eight games.

Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are both tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both players are batting under .230 for the season. Steer’s 91 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 15th in the league. As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. Their team batting average of .234 is 19th in the MLB.

• The Reds are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 5.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Reds are 5-5
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cincinnati has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

Hunter Greene Returns as Reds Aim for Sweep Against Pirates in Series Finale

The Cincinnati Reds are set to welcome back their ace, Hunter Greene, on Sunday afternoon as they aim for a series sweep against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Greene, who has been sidelined with a sore elbow, will make his first major league start since August 13. In that outing, Greene was dominant, allowing just one run on four hits over seven innings in a 4-1 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals.

Reds manager David Bell spoke about the team’s cautious approach regarding Greene’s return, explaining, “We don’t have an exact number of pitches. It speaks to who he is. It was important for him to get back out on the mound for the team. We’ve gone through a really extensive process of making sure he was healthy and built up.”

Greene, a first-time All-Star this season, has been a key part of the Reds’ rotation with a stellar 9-4 record and a 2.83 ERA. However, the 24-year-old flamethrower has yet to notch a win against Pittsburgh, holding a career 0-3 record with a 3.00 ERA in six starts against the Pirates. The Reds (76-80) will be hoping Greene can help them close out the series and secure their fourth win in their last six games as they aim to finish the season on a high note.

Elly De La Cruz Making History for the Reds

Beyond Greene’s return, Cincinnati has plenty to celebrate, especially the continued excellence of rookie phenom Elly De La Cruz. The dynamic shortstop made history on Saturday, smashing his 25th home run of the season, making him the first shortstop in major league history to hit at least 25 home runs and steal 65 bases in a single season. De La Cruz’s power-speed combination has been a game-changer for the Reds, and his efforts helped Cincinnati outscore the Pirates 15-4 over the first two games of the series.

Pirates Look to Rookie Paul Skenes

The Pirates (72-83) are hoping to avoid the sweep after dropping seven of their last nine games, including a 9-1 loss on Saturday in which rookie pitcher Jared Jones struggled, allowing six runs over five innings. Reflecting on his performance, Jones admitted, “Terrible. Everything was terrible today.”

To salvage a win, Pittsburgh will turn to another rookie, right-hander Paul Skenes (10-3, 2.07 ERA). Skenes has been one of the bright spots for the Pirates, and he’s had great success against Cincinnati this season. In two starts, Skenes is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA, including a stellar performance on August 22 when he struck out nine Reds batters over six scoreless innings.

Offensive Struggles for the Pirates

Despite solid pitching performances from their young arms, the Pirates’ offensive struggles have continued. Pittsburgh has scored more than three runs just once in their last eight losses. Manager Derek Shelton emphasized the need for better discipline at the plate, saying, “I think we just need to swing at better pitches. It looked like we chased out of the zone in those situations.”

For the Pirates, getting their offense back on track will be key as they look to avoid the sweep and finish their season with some momentum.

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Series Finale Outlook

With Hunter Greene back on the mound and Paul Skenes continuing to shine, Sunday’s game promises to be a pitching duel. The Reds will look to continue their recent dominance and secure a sweep, while the Pirates aim to end their losing streak and salvage a win in the series finale.

As both teams approach the end of the season, the focus remains on finishing strong and building momentum for the future.

The Lean

For a money line pick, we are leaning towards the Reds to come out on top at home vs. the Pirates. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 3rd highest-scoring game of the day, and this one has the highest total hits projection. Cincinnati’s offense has the best team hits projection, and Hunter Greene has the highest innings pitched projection in the league today.