Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Picks and Predictions September 24th 2024

From Minute Maid Park in Houston, we have the Mariners and Astros facing off in an AL West matchup. This one gets started at 8:10 PM ET and is being televised by RSNW. The money line odds have the Astros at -135 compared to the Mariners at +115. The over/under line is at 7 runs.

Seattle comes in with a record of 81-76, while the Astros are currently 85-72. Framber Valdez will start for the Astros, while the Mariners are sending Logan Gilbert to the mound. Houston is currently on a two-game losing streak.

Seattle vs. Houston Key Information

• Teams: Mariners at Astros
• Where: Minute Maid Park Houston
• Date: Tuesday, September 24th
• Betting Odds HOU -135 | SEA +115 O/U 7

The Mariners Can Win If…

Seattle is sending right-hander Logan Gilbert to the mound today vs. the Astros. Gilbert has made 31 starts this year and has a record of 8-11. His ERA is 3.24, along with a WHIP of .90. In his 31 appearances, Gilbert has turned in 22 quality starts and is averaging 9.46 strikeouts per nine innings. Gilbert’s last outing came vs. the Yankees, where he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts.

Julio Rodríguez has been on a tear of late for the Mariners, going 16/39 in his last eight games with three homers and 12 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .275 with 19 homers. Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley are also near the top of the team’s home run leaderboard, as Raleigh has 31 homers and Raley has 21. However, Raleigh is batting just .216 this season.

Overall, the Mariners are 22nd in scoring at 4.1 runs per game and have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.7 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .224 and are the worst team in the league in terms of striking out. Currently, they are 10th in home runs and have the 3rd most walks in the league.

• The Mariners are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mariners are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Seattle has an over/under record of 7-3 in their last ten games.
• The Mariners have an average of 6.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mariners are 7-3
• Looking back across the Mariners last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Seattle has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mariners have averaged 6.7 runs per game on offense

The Astros Can Win If…

Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros today vs. the Mariners and comes in with a record of 14-7 and an ERA of 2.85. This year, he has made 27 starts, and opponents are batting .214 vs. Valdez this year. In his 27 appearances, Valdez has turned in 17 quality starts and is averaging 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Valdez’s last outing came vs. the Padres, where he took the loss, going seven innings and giving up one earned run. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top power threat this season, as his 35 homers are the best mark on the team and 7th in the league. He also leads the team with 86 RBIs. Alvarez is batting .308 for the season. Alex Bregman has also been a good power threat, with 25 homers and 73 RBIs, but his batting average is just .256.

Over his last five games, Alex Bregman is batting .300 with two homers, and Kyle Tucker has also gone deep twice while going 8/18. Yainer Diaz has gone 10/22 in his last five games. The Astros come into the game averaging 4.6 runs per game and have the league’s 7th best home run total.

• The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 6.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Astros are 5-5
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Houston has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

Mariners Close in on Wild Card Spot in Pivotal Matchup Against Astros

The Seattle Mariners are battling to keep their playoff hopes alive, narrowing the Houston Astros’ lead in the American League West with a decisive 6-1 win in the series opener on Monday. As the teams continue their crucial three-game series in Houston on Tuesday, the Mariners are focused on tightening the division race further.

Mariners’ Playoff Push Intensifies

Seattle (81-76) is currently 1 1/2 games behind the final AL wild-card spot, making this series critical to their postseason aspirations. While a sweep of the Astros (85-72) would help close the gap in the AL West, the wild card remains Seattle’s best chance for making the playoffs.

Monday’s victory kept Houston from clinching the division, pulling the Mariners within three games of their division rivals. Seattle capitalized late in the game, scoring four runs in the final two innings to secure the win, and keeping the pressure on Houston.

The Mariners are thriving under the high-stakes environment. Justin Turner, a key late-season acquisition, said, “These are the games you dreamed about as a kid growing up.” Turner has been instrumental in Seattle’s recent success, batting .302 during an 18-game on-base streak, helping the Mariners go 12-6 during that span.

Manager Dan Wilson praised the team’s balanced offense: “That’s the kind of effort we’re getting one through nine, and that’s what helps you win a lot of ballgames.”

Logan Gilbert Takes the Mound

Seattle will send right-hander Logan Gilbert (8-11, 3.24 ERA) to the mound in Tuesday’s game. Gilbert has been effective against the Astros throughout his career, posting a 3.41 ERA in 11 starts against them. Notably, he pitched eight scoreless innings in a 5-0 win over Houston earlier this season on May 4.

Gilbert’s strong performances against the Astros make him a critical asset in this high-stakes game, as the Mariners aim to inch closer to securing a playoff spot.

Astros Face Challenges Without Alvarez

The Astros struggled offensively on Monday, missing star slugger Yordan Alvarez, who will sit out the remainder of the series due to a right knee sprain. Alvarez, who leads the team with 35 home runs, was injured during Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels.

Despite Jason Heyward homering on Monday, Houston’s lineup was limited to just four hits. Astros second baseman Jose Altuve emphasized the need for a quick rebound, saying, “Forget about the last game. Show up (Tuesday) with the best attitude, try to take good at-bats, and win.”

Framber Valdez Looks to Bounce Back

Houston will turn to left-hander Framber Valdez (14-7, 2.85 ERA) in the second game of the series. Valdez has been solid lately, posting a 1.36 ERA over his last five starts. However, he has struggled against the Mariners this season, going 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA in three starts.

Valdez’s performance will be crucial for Houston, as they aim to clinch the AL West title. The Astros need two wins, two Seattle losses, or a combination of both to secure their fourth straight division crown.

Tuesday’s Game Crucial for Both Teams

With just a few games remaining, Tuesday’s matchup carries immense weight for both teams. A win would bring Seattle within two games of Houston and bolster their wild-card chances, while the Astros look to lock in their division title and head into the playoffs with momentum.

Both teams are fighting for their postseason lives, making this game a must-watch as the race for the playoffs heats up.

The Lean

Today’s game between the Astros and Mariners has the 3rd highest projected runs total and 4th highest home run total. We are leaning towards the Astros to pick up the win, and we are also leaning towards the over. Framber Valdez is our 11th ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts, and he has the 2nd best run support projection in today’s league slate.