Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 25th 2024

In wild-card position, Tigers aim to beat Rays again

The forecast for Wednesday’s Rays vs. Tigers matchup calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. First pitch from Comerica Park is set for 6:40 PM ET. BSDET is carrying this game on TV.

The Tigers are the slight favorite on the money line, and they will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak. However, they are facing a Rays club that is 78-79 and 4th in the AL East. Today’s over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and Keider Montero is starting for the Tigers, while the Rays are starting Zack Littell.

Tampa Bay vs. Detroit Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Tigers
• Where: Comerica Park Detroit
• Date: Wednesday, September 25th
• Betting Odds DET -117 | TB -101 O/U 7.5

The Rays Can Win If…

Zack Littell has been pitching well for the Rays, as he has won each of his last three starts. Most recently, he faced the Red Sox and didn’t give up a run in seven innings of work. Looking at his overall numbers, Littell has made 28 starts and has a record of 8-9. His ERA for the season is 3.56, along with a WHIP of 1.24. Opposing batters are hitting .260 off Littell this season. The right-hander has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 7.95 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has given up 21 homers.

So far this season, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team batting average. However, they do have a few hitters who have put up some solid power numbers, as they have three players with at least 18 homers. Yandy Diaz has been a nice surprise for the team, as he is batting .282 and has gone deep 14 times.

Over his last five games, Jonathan Aranda has gone 5/15 with three homers. Brandon Lowe is also on a three-game hitting streak and is one of the Rays’ top power threats, but he is hitting just .242 for the season. Christopher Morel and Jose Siri are also struggling at the plate, with Morel batting just .197 and Siri at .190.

• The Rays are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 1-9 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.6 runs per game on offense

The Tigers Can Win If…

Right-hander Keider Montero gets the start for the Tigers today as he faces the Rays at home. He has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 6-6 with an ERA of 4.86. Montero’s WHIP for the season is 1.29, and opponents are batting .254 off him this year. In his last outing, Montero came out of the bullpen and went 4 2/3 innings, giving up five earned runs, and taking the loss. Before that, he had won three straight starts. So far, Montero has one complete game shutout this year.

As a team, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They have been slightly better on the road this season, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, they are 19th in home runs and have a team batting average of .234. Detroit’s team on-base percentage is just .299, and their OPS of .685 is also near the bottom of the league.

Riley Greene has been the Tigers’ top power threat this season, with 24 home runs and 72 RBIs. However, he is batting just .262 for the season and has hit only .216 over his last nine games. Kerry Carpenter comes into the game with a team-leading batting average of .287 and has 17 homers.

• The Tigers are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Tigers are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Detroit has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Tigers have an average of 3.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Tigers are 8-2
• Looking back across the Tigers last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Detroit has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Tigers have averaged 4.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money line pick, our lean would be to take the Tigers to come out on top at home. And despite our projections pointing to this being the 4th lowest-scoring game of the day, we are leaning towards taking the over. Looking at today’s starters, Keider Montero has the 2nd lowest projected strikeouts among today’s starters compared to Zack Littell (3rd worst).

The Tigers’ remarkable comeback story this season has them just five games away from potentially clinching a postseason spot. Detroit (83-74), which was nine games under .500 as recently as July 4, now finds itself nine games above that mark after defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 on Tuesday afternoon for their seventh win in the last eight games.

As the Tigers prepare for the second game of a pivotal three-game series, they sit tied with the Kansas City Royals (83-74) for the second and third wild-card spots in the American League. Both teams lead the Minnesota Twins by two games and the Seattle Mariners by 2 1/2 games in the heated wild-card race.

Tigers Manager A.J. Hinch Confident but Focused

Detroit’s turnaround is largely credited to consistent performance, tactical management, and resilience. “We’re pushing as hard as we can. This is important. We know that,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said, acknowledging the gravity of the situation. “We’re not underestimating the team across the way in Tampa. They play close games all the time. We need more wins to get to the finish line, but these players are really doing it.”

Pitching Matchups: Montero vs. Littell

The next challenge for the Tigers will be a pitching duel on Wednesday night. Rookie right-hander Keider Montero (6-6, 4.86 ERA) will take the mound for Detroit. Montero was exceptional in two previous starts where he threw a combined 14 scoreless innings, but he struggled in his last outing against the Baltimore Orioles, giving up five runs in 4 2/3 innings. “Location was the issue,” Montero admitted through an interpreter after that game. “You don’t want to leave pitches up in major league baseball. These hitters don’t miss those opportunities.”

Montero will be making his first-ever start against Tampa Bay, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for the rookie. He’ll need to regain his form to help the Tigers keep their wild-card hopes alive.

Opposing Montero will be Zack Littell (8-9, 3.56 ERA) for Tampa Bay, who has been nearly untouchable in recent outings. Littell has not allowed a run over his last 18 innings and has held opponents to just six hits and one walk, while striking out 16 during that span. In his latest start, he pitched seven innings of one-hit ball against the Boston Red Sox, earning high praise from Rays manager Kevin Cash. “Really remarkable,” Cash said. “He’s been reliable, dependable. You feel like you know what you’re gonna get every outing, and then he puts an outing like this together where it’s just really impressive.”

Since being converted to a full-time starter last season, Littell has excelled, posting a 2.15 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break. However, he’ll be looking to redeem himself after the Tigers tagged him for six runs (five earned) in an April 22 loss. Overall, Littell has a career 2-1 record and a 2.81 ERA in six appearances against Detroit, including two starts.

Tampa Bay on the Brink

The Rays (78-79) are still in the wild-card hunt but are teetering on the edge of playoff elimination. Their four-game winning streak was snapped on Tuesday by Detroit, and another loss would push them even closer to the brink. The Rays narrowly avoided a shutout thanks to a solo home run by Brandon Lowe with two outs in the ninth inning, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Detroit’s stellar pitching.

The Rays faced the Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal in Tuesday’s game, and Skubal delivered seven shutout innings in a performance that left little room for Tampa Bay’s offense. “Skubal dominated and got better as the game got going,” said Hinch. “That was really encouraging. Obviously, he’s our guy.”

Despite Tuesday’s loss, the Rays still have a slim chance to stay in contention, but with only five games left in the regular season, they will need near-perfect play combined with favorable results from other teams to make it to the postseason.

Playoff Picture and What’s at Stake

For the Tigers, every game in this final stretch is critical. With five games remaining and fierce competition from the Royals, Twins, and Mariners, Detroit must continue its momentum. A win on Wednesday could further solidify their wild-card positioning and reduce the pressure heading into the final games of the season.

The Tigers have shown resilience and determination throughout the second half of the season, particularly with their improved pitching and timely hitting. A successful wild-card berth would cap off a dramatic turnaround for a team that looked out of the playoff race just a few months ago.

The Rays, meanwhile, face an uphill battle. As they inch closer to playoff elimination, Wednesday’s game represents a must-win scenario. With Littell on the mound and in top form, they’ll be counting on their pitching staff to keep the Tigers’ bats quiet, while their lineup needs to find a way to break through against Montero.

Key Players to Watch

• Keider Montero (Tigers): The rookie’s ability to bounce back from a tough outing will be crucial. If Montero can regain the form he showed in his previous two starts, the Tigers will have a strong chance of winning.
• Zack Littell (Rays): Littell has been exceptional as of late and will be Tampa Bay’s best hope of staying alive in the playoff hunt. His ability to control the game and pitch deep into innings will be key for the Rays.
• Brandon Lowe (Rays): Lowe provided the only offense for Tampa Bay in Tuesday’s game with a ninth-inning home run. The Rays will need more clutch hitting from him and others if they hope to reverse their fortunes.

Final Thoughts

As the wild-card race heats up, the Detroit Tigers find themselves in prime position to secure a postseason spot, thanks to their strong play down the stretch. Wednesday’s game against Tampa Bay is pivotal for both teams, with the Tigers looking to tighten their grip on a wild-card berth and the Rays fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive.

With Littell in stellar form and Montero looking to prove himself, this pitching duel could determine the fate of both teams’ seasons. As the final games approach, every pitch and every play will be crucial in the high-stakes battle for a playoff spot.

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