Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions September 25th 2024

The Red Sox and Blue Jays will face off in an AL East matchup at 7:07 PM ET. This one is being played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, and the Red Sox are favored on the money line (+117). The Blue Jays have a losing streak of five games and their record is 73-85, while Boston is 80-78 overall.

Wednesday’s pitching matchup is Richard Fitts for the Red Sox and Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays. Boston comes in with a four-game winning streak, and they are 3rd in the AL East, while the Blue Jays are 5th. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and NESN will be televising this one.

Boston vs. Toronto Key Information

• Teams: Red Sox at Blue Jays
• Where: Rogers Centre Toronto
• Date: Wednesday, September 25th
• Betting Odds TOR -138 | BOS +117 O/U 8

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Richard Fitts will be making his 4th start of the season today, as the Red Sox take on the Blue Jays. Fitts has yet to factor into a decision in any of his starts, but he has been solid in each outing. His last time out, he went 5 innings and struck out 3, while allowing just 1 earned run on 5 hits.

The Red Sox offense has been one of the best in the league this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game (9th) and batting a collective .253, which is the 6th best mark in the league. They are also one of the best home run-hitting teams in the league, coming in 7th in the league in homers. One of the reasons for their success has been their ability to avoid strikeouts, as they have the 25th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 28 homers are 2nd on the team and 14th in the league. Devers also leads the Red Sox with 83 RBIs. Jarren Duran comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak but has gone just 9/38 in his last nine games.

• The Red Sox are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 4-1 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 5.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Red Sox are 4-6
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 3.2 runs per game on offense

The Blue Jays Can Win If…

Kevin Gausman will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. Against the Rangers on September 19th, he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up just six hits. Gausman finished with a pitching line of 5 innings, 0 earned runs, 0 walks, and 1 homer allowed. Looking back further, he has finished with a no-decision in two straight outings. Gausman’s ERA for the season is 3.91, along with a record of 13-11. Opponents are batting .232 off the right-hander this season.

So far this season, the Blue Jays offense has been just 21st in the league in runs per game, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. This is the same number they have averaged both at home and on the road. As a team, they are batting just .241, which is 14th in the league, and their collective slugging percentage is just 19th in the league. One area where they have been strong is avoiding strikeouts, as they are 6th in the league in fewest strikeouts.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot for the Blue Jays this season, as he is hitting .324 with a team-high 30 home runs and 102 RBIs. Guerrero Jr. has also been hot of late, going 11/30 in his last seven games with two homers. George Springer is 2nd on the team with 19 homers but is batting just .219 for the season.

• The Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Blue Jays are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Toronto has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Blue Jays have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Blue Jays are 2-8
• Looking back across the Blue Jays last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• Toronto has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Blue Jays have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

Boston Red Sox Eye Fifth Straight Win and Playoff Push

The Boston Red Sox are riding high on a four-game winning streak and are looking to keep their playoff dreams alive as they face off against the Toronto Blue Jays in the series finale on Wednesday night. The pressure is mounting, and every game counts, especially with just a few games left in the regular season.

Fitts’ Impressive Start to His Career

Rookie Richard Fitts has been lights out since making his MLB debut. Though the 24-year-old right-hander hasn’t picked up a win yet, his numbers are solid. In his first three starts, Fitts holds an impressive 0.00 ERA, with 15 2/3 innings under his belt. He’s allowed 13 hits and 5 walks while striking out 7, keeping opposing hitters in check.

Despite Fitts’ strong outings, the Red Sox haven’t capitalized on his efforts in the win column. But tonight could be the night they change that.

Red Sox Fight to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive

At 80-78, the Red Sox are still in the hunt for an American League wild-card spot. They’ll need every ounce of offense to back Fitts if they want to extend their winning streak and keep their postseason hopes alive.

Tuesday’s 6-5, 10-inning win was nothing short of thrilling. After falling behind 3-0, the Sox fought back, rallying in the 10th inning. Trevor Story knocked in the go-ahead run with a clutch double, and Vaughn Grissom sealed the deal with an insurance run, capping off a three-hit night.

Manager Alex Cora couldn’t hide his excitement after the comeback win: “The boys did an amazing job fighting all the way to the end… one of the most gratifying wins since I’ve been here.”

Blue Jays Aim to End Losing Streak

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays (73-85) are desperate to snap their five-game losing streak. Veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman will take the mound for Toronto, looking to finish his season on a high note. Gausman is 13-11 with a 3.91 ERA this season and is hoping for a strong outing to avoid a sweep.

Despite their current struggles, the Blue Jays had some bright moments in Tuesday’s game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ripped a two-run double and is now just five hits shy of the 200-hit milestone. Alejandro Kirk extended his hitting streak to 16 games, and Bowden Francis threw five scoreless innings to continue his strong finish to the year.

Blue Jays manager John Schneider praised Francis: “Just another outstanding effort. You can’t really say enough about how he finished up the season.”

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What’s at Stake for Boston?

For the Red Sox, this is it. Every game is do-or-die as they try to close in on a wild-card spot. Fitts will need to stay sharp on the mound, and the lineup—led by Story, Grissom, and others—must continue to deliver in key moments.

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, will be playing for pride as they wrap up their final homestand of the season. Despite their struggles, they’ll look to avoid a sweep and finish strong against a divisional rival.

Can the Red Sox extend their streak, or will the Blue Jays spoil Boston’s playoff push?

The Lean

For an over/under pick, our lean would be on the over, as this is projected to be the 7th highest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Blue Jays to pick up the win. Boston’s offense is projected to have the 5th most team strikeouts, and Kevin Gausman has the 3rd best chance to pick up a win among today’s starters.