Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions September 26th 2024

At 12:35 PM ET, the Brewers and Pirates will face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is taking place at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the Brewers are the favorites on the money line, with their line sitting at -121 compared to the Pirates at +103. The over/under line is at 8 runs, and the game will be televised on BSWI.

Milwaukee comes into the game with a record of 90-68, while the Pirates are 74-84. Mitch Keller will start for the Pirates, while the Brewers are sending Aaron Civale to the mound.

Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh Key Information

Right-hander Aaron Civale gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Pirates on the road. He has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with a 4.53 ERA. Civale’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.33. In his 30 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 8.36 strikeouts per nine innings. Civale most recently pitched on September 21st, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts.

As a team, the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. The Brewers have been a good home run hitting team this season and are also near the top of the league in terms of on-base percentage and walks.

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Willy Adames has been a key part of the Brewers offense this season, as his 32 home runs are 10th in the league and he is 4th in the MLB with 111 RBIs. Adames also comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Catcher William Contreras has also been a key run producer for the Brewers, as his 92 RBIs is 2nd on the team, and he is batting .283 for the season.

Mitch Keller will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Reds, as he gets the start for the Pirates vs. the Brewers today. Against the Reds, he gave up eight earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Keller has a record of 11-11 this season and an ERA of 4.21. Looking at his overall numbers, Keller has made 30 starts, and opponents are batting .251 vs. the right-hander this season. Keller has turned in 15 quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 3.24 compared to 6.36 on the road.

Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds have been the Pirates’ top power threats this season, as Reynolds leads the team with 22 homers, and Cruz is right behind him with 21. Reynolds also leads the Pirates with 85 RBIs, and Cruz is 2nd on the team in RBIs. Cruz has struggled of late, going just 4/21 in his last seven games, but he does have two homers in that stretch. Reynolds is just 5/20 in his last eight games.

Overall, the Pirates are batting just .235 this season (17th) and are averaging 4.1 runs per game. They have been a little better at home, putting up 4.3 runs per contest. As a team, they are 24th in home runs and have the league’s 25th worst strikeout rate.

Today’s Brewers and Pirates matchup should feature plenty of offense, as this is projected to be the 6th highest-scoring game of today’s league slate. Our lean would be towards taking the over. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Brewers to pick up the win. Looking at today’s starters, Aaron Civale has the 5th best strikeout projection compared to Mitch Keller, who has the highest projection on today’s slate.

Mitch Keller, Pirates Chase Series Win Over Playoff-Bound Brewers

Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller will take the mound Thursday as his team aims to secure a series win over the National League Central champion Milwaukee Brewers in their final home game of the season. Keller (11-11, 4.21 ERA) is looking to bounce back after a rough outing in which he allowed eight runs in a loss to the Cincinnati Reds.

The 2023 All-Star hasn’t recorded a win since Aug. 20 and has struggled through his last five starts, posting a 6.93 ERA over that span. In his most recent outing, Keller lasted just 3 1/3 innings, giving up seven hits, two home runs, and walking five batters in a disappointing 8-3 loss.

“Just not in the zone,” Keller said after the game. “Just throwing balls and falling behind in the count. They were ready to hit.”

Despite his struggles, Keller will try to draw on his success from earlier in the season, including a win over the Brewers on May 13, when he tossed six shutout innings in an 8-6 victory.

Civale Takes the Mound for Milwaukee

Milwaukee will counter with right-hander Aaron Civale (7-9, 4.53 ERA), who is looking to rebound after a 5-0 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks last Saturday. Civale has had success against the Pirates this season, posting a 1.59 ERA in two starts, although his record stands at 0-1 in those games.

Civale has also pitched well at PNC Park, compiling a 1.86 ERA in three career starts in Pittsburgh.

Pirates Even the Series with Strong Pitching

The Pirates evened the series on Wednesday with a 2-1 victory, backed by a stellar performance from Luis L. Ortiz, who allowed just one run over seven innings. Ortiz, who has split time between the bullpen and the starting rotation this season, continued his strong stretch, improving his record to 7-6 and lowering his ERA to 3.32.

“It’s the culmination of a really good year where he got better,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said of Ortiz. “We challenge people to get better, and he did that throughout the year.”

Brewers Eye Playoffs, Peralta Hits Milestone

Despite the loss, the Brewers remain focused on the postseason, having already clinched the division and locked up the No. 3 seed in the National League playoffs. Starter Freddy Peralta pitched 5 1/3 innings, allowing two runs and striking out seven, bringing his season strikeout total to 200 for the second straight year.

“It’s a great milestone for any starting pitcher,” said Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy.

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The Brewers have now secured their playoff position and are preparing for their opening-round matchup next week.

Series Finale Set for Thursday

The final game of the series will decide the winner, as both teams look to finish strong before the season’s close. Keller will try to end his recent skid and give the Pirates a series win, while Civale looks to build momentum as the Brewers prepare for postseason play.