2024 NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, September 29, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN BET. For simplicity’s sake, we will refer to the race as the Hollywood Casino 400.

Also, this is the second annual event held at Kansas Speedway. The first event takes place in the spring and called the AdventHealth 400. Kyle Larson won that race, on May 5, which was the 12^th of the season.

This weekend’s event marks the 30^th race of the season, fourth of the Playoffs, and the first race in the Round of 12. The Playoff field eliminated four drivers after the conclusion of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race from Bristol last weekend. 12 drivers remain in contention for the 2024 NASCAR Championship. 

Speaking of Larson, the #5 car dominated in Bristol last weekend. He reminded the rest of the field why he’s the odds-on favorite to win the championship this year.

Heading into Kansas this weekend, Larson is the favorite to win. He’s followed by Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. Four of the five betting favorites for this race are Playoff drivers. Truex is the only one that is not.

After Bristol’s night race last weekend, Truex joined Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs and Harrison Burton in getting eliminated from the Playoffs. Although those four drivers are still able to win races throughout the next eight weeks, they will not be eligible for the Championship any longer.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Hollywood Casino 400 odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s race at Kansas Speedway.

Hollywood Casino 400 Race Profile

The Kansas Speedway first broke ground in May 1999, and was open for racing in June 2001. Since then, NASCAR has been running at least one race at this track. Eventually, the Cup Series made Kansas home to two annual events as mentioned above.

The speedway is an asphalt track with a lap distance of 1.5 miles and four turns with banking of 17 to 20 degrees. The front stretch has 10-degree banking and the backstretch has 5 degrees of banking.

Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400.5 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: 80 laps
• Stage 2: 80 laps
• Final Stage: 107 laps

The Hollywood Casino 400 is set to begin at 3 pm ET and will air live on USA.

Previous Hollywood Casino 400 Winners

• 2023: Tyler Reddick
• 2022: Bubba Wallace
• 2021: Kyle Larson
• 2020: Joey Logano
• 2019: Denny Hamlin
• 2018: Chase Elliott
• 2017: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2016: Kevin Harvick
• 2015: Joey Logano
• 2014: Joey Logano

NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Playoff Drivers

The following drivers are in the 12-car Playoff field. Let’s take a look at how these drivers have fared in the postseason so far, and how they might do at Kansas Speedway this weekend:

Kyle Larson (+350)

• Playoff Standings: 1
• Playoff Points: 3047
• Wins: 5
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 14

Since Larson crushed the field last weekend at Bristol, he returned to the top of the Playoff Standings. It was a much needed performance as the #5 car was 10^th in the standings heading into Bristol and could’ve fallen below the cutoff line with a worst-case scenario result. The win marked his first in almost two months, and his fifth on the year.

As mentioned above, Larson won the Kansas race this spring. It was his second career-win at this track and continued his torrid stretch of success. Over the last six Kansas races, Larson has two wins, four Top 2s, five Top 5s and six Top 8s. He’s led laps in five of those six races.

Larson won this race in 2021, and has a 4.3 average finish over his last three Hollywood Casino 400 races. The #5 car is the man to beat on Sunday. He should be an easy Top 10 driver with a race-winning ceiling.

Denny Hamlin (+400) 

• Playoff Standings: 6
• Playoff Points: 3015
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 13

Last week at Bristol, I picked Denny Hamlin to win because I didn’t want to pick Larson two weeks in a row. I had picked Larson to win at the Go Bowling at the Glen race, but he came up short. Hamlin was below the cutoff line heading into Bristol and needed a strong performance. That’s exactly what he did as he finished 4^th.

Now, he heads to Kansas, where Hamlin is one of the best drivers among the field. Sure, Logano has three wins in this race, but Hamlin has four wins at this track. Don’t let his one Hollywood Casino 400 win fool you into thinking that the #11 car isn’t a real threat on Sunday.

In 32 starts, Hamlin has four wins, 14 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and a 12.3 average finish. He leads the field in wins, Top 5s, second in Top 10s, and third in average finish.

Over his last 10 Kansas races, Hamlin has three wins, five Top 2s, eight Top 5s, eight Top 10s, 10 Top 15s, and led laps in seven of those races. If anyone can beat Larson this weekend, it’s Hamlin.

Tyler Reddick (+700)

• Playoff Standings: 3
• Playoff Points: 3028
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19

Reddick was the most consistent driver during the regular season but that hasn’t translated into the Playoffs just yet. He was 6^th in Atlanta, but 27^th at Watkins Glen, and 20^th at Bristol. These numbers need to improve quickly or the #45 car won’t make it to the Round of 8.

Reddick is the defending winner of this race as he led the last two laps of the 2023 Hollywood Casino 400. However, that was the only Top 5 of his career in 10 starts at Kansas. His 17.1 average finish is well behind other top-notch Playoff drivers.

When you combine Reddick’s last few races, along with a mediocre run at Kansas in his Cup Series career, I would project him to be a Top 10 driver that needs a lot of luck to crack the Top 5.  

William Byron (+900) 

• Playoff Standings: 4
• Playoff Points: 3022
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 14

Although William Byron hasn’t won at Kansas yet, he does have more Top 5s and Top 10s than Reddick does. Yet, I think the #24 car is a bit overvalued this weekend. Sure, he has a solid 14.8 average finish at Kansas, but he’s had three finishes of 15th or worse in the last five races. Byron was 23^rd in the spring Kansas race this year and 15^th in this race last year. His best result in this race was 5^th back in 2019.

Additionally, Byron hasn’t been great over the last five races on the season. During that span, he has three finishes of 27^th or worse, four finishes of 17^th or worse, and just one Top 10 which came in Atlanta. In reality, that Quaker State 400 result helped him advance to the Round of 12.

Byron’s ceiling is a Top 10 finish this weekend. I would avoid betting on him for any individual prop bets.

Christopher Bell (+1000)

• Playoff Standings: 2
• Playoff Points: 3032
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 17

Of the Playoff drivers remaining in contention, Christopher Bell has been the most consistent over the first three races of the postseason.

The #20 car has a 7.9 average finish in the Playoffs so far. He was 4^th in Atlanta, 14^th at Watkins Glen, and 5^th at Bristol last Saturday night. In fact, Bell has four Top 5s in his last five races on the season. The Watkins Glen result is his worst finish over that span.

In nine Kansas starts, Bell has two Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 14.1 average finish. He was 6^th in this year’s spring race and 8^th in last year’s Hollywood Casino 400 race. Bell crashed in the 2023 spring Kansas race, but does have five Top 8s in his last six appearances.

I think Bell is being overlooked here. I like him better than Reddick and Byron. Look for Bell to be a Top 10 and Top 5 driver with an outside shot at stealing the win from Larson or Hamlin.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

• Playoff Standings: 5
• Playoff Points: 3019
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 13

If it weren’t for a crash at Watkins Glen, at the start of the race, Blaney could be sitting at the top of the Playoff Standings due to how well he performed at the other two tracks of the opening round. The defending Cup Series Champ was 3^rd in Atlanta and 6^th in Bristol.

His strong result at Bristol helped Blaney to advance. There was some doubt about Blaney being able to move on due to previous failures at Bristol.

Now, he heads to Kansas where Blaney has not been great. In fact, he’s not even a Top 15 driver. In 19 starts, Blaney has three Top 5s, seven Top 10s and a 15.9 average finish.

He has just one Top 10 result at Kansas in the last seven races. He has just two Top 10s in the last 11 races at this track.

Blaney’s ceiling is a Top 15 result, but I think he might come up short of that mark. Avoid the #12 car this weekend or bet against him in head-to-head matchups and group bets.

Chase Elliott (+1400)  

• Playoff Standings: 7
• Playoff Points: 3014
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 14

Chase Elliott is another driver I really like this weekend. He leads the field with a 10.2 average finish at Kansas. Additionally, he has 11 Top 10s in 17 starts. He also has seven Top 5s and a victory at this venue.

Elliott has three consecutive Top 7 results and won this race in 2018. Since that win, Elliott has five Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and nine Top 12s in the last 10 races at this track.

The #9 car was 8^th in Atlanta, 19^th at Watkins Glen, 2^nd at Bristol and has a 9.6 average finish over the first three Playoff races.

I think Elliott can improve on those numbers as I see him contending for the checkered flag this weekend. I have him as a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling.

Joey Logano (+2500)

• Playoff Standings: 8
• Playoff Points: 3012
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 9

When it comes to the first round of the Playoffs, the only thing that has surprised me more than Logano winning in Atlanta to kickoff the postseason, is his odds for this weekend’s race.

Logano has won the Hollywood Casino 400 race three times. Sure, he finished 34^th earlier this year at Kansas, but he did have a 5^th in this race last year. In fact, over the last four Hollywood 400 races, Logano has an 8.0 average finish. That’s far better than other drivers like Byron, Reddick and Blaney. Yet, oddsmakers have him as a bigger longshot to win the race than those three drivers.

I think Logano offers a ton of betting value this Sunday. I didn’t think he had any chance to win the Atlanta race. However, he shocked everyone and I can see that happening again this weekend.

Logano’s Top 10 odds of +140 might just be my favorite bet of the weekend.

Alex Bowman (+3000)

• Playoff Standings: 11
• Playoff Points: 3008
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 14

I’m a bit surprised by Bowman’s odds to win this race as well. Bowman has three Top 5s and nine Top 10s in the 17 Kansas starts. In fact, he has four straight Top 10 results at this track. Over his last 11 Kansas races, Bowman has three Top 5s, eight Top 10s, 10 Top 11s, and has never finished worse than 18^th.

Another reason why I’m surprised at Bowman’s odds is the fact that he’s done well in the Playoffs so far. Bowman has an 8.0 average finish over the first three postseason races with a 5^th in Atlanta, 18^th in Watkins Glen, and a 9^th in Bristol.

Bowman offers value this weekend, especially with his +160 Top 10 odds, as I think he will crack the Top 10 this Sunday.

Chase Briscoe (+4000)

• Playoff Standings: 12
• Playoff Points: 3005
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 9

Chase Briscoe has been the biggest surprise driver over the last month. He won at Darlington, the final race of the regular season, to get into the Playoffs. He then crashed out of Atlanta, which made it seem like Briscoe was doomed to be eliminated in this round. However, he bounced back to finish 6^th at Watkins Glen and 8^th at Bristol. Two strong results for a driver that I didn’t think would make it to the Round of 12.

Unfortunately, Briscoe’s luck will run out in Kansas this weekend. So, he should probably avoid the Hollywood Casino while in town.

In seven career Kansas starts, Briscoe’s best finish was 13^th in 2022. He’s never cracked the Top 10 or has even led a lap at this track. Additionally, Briscoe has one of the worst average finishes among Playoff drivers at 21.1.

Avoid Briscoe this weekend as he would be lucky to crack the Top 19. Currently, six of his seven Kansas results were 19^th or worse. Bet against him in driver matchups and group props.

Daniel Suarez (+6000)

• Playoff Standings: 10
• Playoff Points: 3006
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 7

Daniel Suarez didn’t let me down when I picked him to finish strong in Atlanta for the first Playoff race. The #99 car was second and pretty much advanced to the Round of 12 because of that finish. Yet, the advancement wasn’t automatic or smooth. He had to sweat it out as Suarez finished 31^st at Bristol last weekend and was dangerously close to being eliminated by Truex and Gibbs.

Unfortunately for Suarez, I don’t see any chance that he makes it to the Round of 8. Suarez has just two Top 10s at Kansas in 15 starts. He also has the third worst average finish at this track among Playoff drivers at 20.9. Suarez has one Top 10 in his last 14 races at this track and I don’t see him breaking that trend on Sunday.

Avoid Suarez unless you decide to bet against him in driver matchups or group bets.

Austin Cindric (+1000)

• Playoff Standings: 9
• Playoff Points: 3008
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 5

The Playoff driver with the worst average finish at Kansas is Austin Cindric. In six starts at this track, Cindric has never cracked the Top 10 and has a 24.0 average finish. In fact, Cindric hasn’t cracked the Top 30 in his last three races at this venue.

I didn’t think that Cindric would advance out of the Round of 16, but his 11.0 average finish throughout that round helped him move on, as other Playoff drivers were far more inconsistent. Cindric finished 10^th in Atlanta and Watkins Glen, while coming home 13^th at Bristol last weekend.

Unfortunately, I don’t see that consistency continuing at Kansas this weekend. Cindric would be lucky to crack the Top 15. More than likely, he finishes outside of the Top 20.

Like with Suarez and Briscoe, I would avoid Cindric unless you bet against him in matchups or group bets.

Hollywood Casino 400 Best of The Rest

The following drivers are not qualified for the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, but they still offer some betting value at Kansas Speedway:

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)        

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 9

Although Martin Truex Jr. has been eliminated from the Playoffs, he still has some value at Kansas this weekend.

In 32 starts, Truex has two wins, 11 Top 5s, 18 Top 10s and a 12.6 average finish which is 5^th best among the field. A crash in this race last year, snapped an eight-race streak of finishing 9^th or better at Kansas. He bounced back for a 4^th in the spring race earlier this year. That was one of his best results of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season and I think he could crack the Top 10 this weekend.

The betting value for Truex is with his Top 5 odds of +180. Throw out the crash last year, and Truex has a 6.0 average finish at this track over the last five Kansas races. Place a small flier on Truex to finish in the Top 5. The safer bet is a Top 10 result.

Kyle Busch (+2000)

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

In 33 Kansas starts, Kyle Busch has two wins, 10 Top 5s, 16 Top 10s and a 15.6 average finish. Although his numbers are slightly below Truex’s, Busch offers better value with his Top 10 odds (+120) than Truex.

Busch has two consecutive Top 10 results at this venue. In fact, over his last eight Kansas races, Busch has one win, three Top 5s, and five Top 10s.

Prior to poor showings at Watkins Glen and Bristol, which were two tracks he’s raced well at in the past, Busch had four straight Top 7 results. I think Busch warrants a small bet on his Top 10 odds as I can see the #6 car pulling off a nice run this Sunday.

Bubba Wallace (+2000)

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 11

Bubba Wallace is another sneaky play this weekend. Yes, his 20.9 average finish and 2 DNFs at Kansas can make you hesitate, but when you dig deeper, then you will see that there’s some solid data backing up a flier.

Over the last five Kansas races, Wallace has one win, two Top 5s, and three Top 10s. I think people overlook the fact that he won this race in 2022.

Wallace also has two Top 5 results in the last five races of the season. His most impressive showing over that span was at Bristol last weekend.

Wallace’s Top 10 odds are +120 and they could be a nice payoff as I think he has a Top 10 ceiling this Sunday.

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Hollywood Casino 400

Kyle Larson (-170) is the best bet to finish in the Top 5 this weekend. Sure, Hamlin at -130 odds offers better value, but Larson has been very strong at this track over the last six races.

During that span, Larson has two wins, two runner ups, and five Top 5s. In fact, his worst result was 8^th. He’s also led laps in five of those six races. Larson has three consecutive Top 4 results including winning the spring Kansas race this year. Plus, his domination at Bristol makes me feel good about placing just about any wager on the #5 car.

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Hollywood Casino 400

There are a few drivers that you can pick for this bet, but all of their odds are higher than Elliott. In fact, most of them are -200 and above.

Chase Elliott has -150 odds to finish in the Top 10 at Kansas and it’s quite surprising considering he has the best average finish among the field at 10.2. Additionally, he has a 7.3 average finish over his last 12 races at this track including a 3^rd in the spring race this year and a 6^th in this race last year.

In his last six Hollywood Casino 400 races, Elliott has a 4.6 average finish. These are eye-popping numbers and gives me plenty of confidence to place a healthy wager on the #9 car to finish in the Top 10.

NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag?

This is going to be an exciting race for the Playoff drivers. A strong result could set them up for potential advancement to the next round or it could potentially end their postseason hopes if they finish poorly.

My Top 5 drivers are Larson, Hamlin, Bell, Elliott, Logano and Keselowski or Truex if they can get some luck to go their way.

As for the winner, I like that to come from of Larson, Bell, Hamlin or Elliott. I would love to pick Elliott to win the Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN BET, but he hasn’t won a race in over five months. His lone victory of the season was at Texas Motor Speedway on April 14. So, after his disappointing performance at Watkins Glen, I’m going to hold off on picking Elliott to win again, unless it’s another road race. Which by the way, the Charlotte Road race takes place in this round.

Denny Hamlin has not won since the 11^th race of the season when he picked up the victory at Dover on April 28. His 4^th finish at Bristol last weekend is the only reason why he advanced in the Playoffs after a 23.5 average finish in the first two races of the round.

I like his chances to contend for this weekend’s checkered flag, but I’m also holding off on picking Hamlin to win until he shows me that he’s a true contender to win a race. The #11 car hasn’t done that since Richmond which took place seven races ago.

So, it comes down to Larson and Bell. The latter has never won at Kansas but he has been consistently good at the venue. Additionally, he has been a strong driver over the last few months of the season.

I would love to ride with the #20 car to victory lane, but I cannot pick against Larson just because I’m trying to be diplomatic. I did that last weekend and he had one of the most dominating races of his career. It was as if my hometown driver took my prediction as a personal insult.

I am taking Larson to win at this track and sweep the Kansas races this year. He’s just been too good at this venue over the last three or four years. In fact, he’s been the best at this venue and at most tracks of this lap distance.

Bet: Kyle Larson +350

NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3: Bell or Truex (+120)

There are numerous combinations to choose from, but many of them offer poor odds. So, I like to try and find decent value for two drivers that I not only think can finish in the Top 3, but to also contend for the race win. Both Bell and Truex are two drivers that can do both. Additionally, they are in the Top 6 of the field for average finishes at this track and in the Top 6 odds-on favorites to win this race.

Truex has two wins at Kansas and won the Hollywood Casino 400 race in the past. As mentioned above, he’s also had nine Top 9s in his last 10 races. Only a crash in the 2023 Hollywood Casino 400 race, on the 3^rd lap, is the lone blemish on his recent Kansas resume.

Bell has five Top 10s in his last six races at Kansas. Like Truex, the lone blemish was a crash in the 2023 spring race.

I think Bell could actually win this race on Sunday, but I have him coming in as a runner up. Truex could be a wild card that shakes up the field in the final laps.

Bet: Either To Finish Top 3: Bell or Truex (+120)

Winning Manufacturer

• Toyota (+120)
• Chevrolet (+150)
• Ford (+350)

Since NASCAR’s Cup Series debut at Kansas in 2001, Chevy has the most wins with 11. There are numerous drivers from Chevy that have a shot to perform well this Sunday.

I picked Larson to win, but his teammate Chase Elliott is another Chevy driver that could contend for the checkered flag. Not to mention, Byron, Bowman and Busch are three Chevrolet drivers that have a shot at some kind of success at Kansas.

Bet: Chevrolet (+150)

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Group Winner

• Bubba Wallace (+180)
• Ross Chastain (+250)
• Joey Logano (+250)
• Chase Briscoe (+450)

Joey Logano has more wins, Top 5s, and Top 10s than the rest of these drivers combined. Not to mention he also has the best average finish among the group with a 16.9. Chastain is second (18.3), Wallace is third (20.9), and Briscoe is last among these drivers (20.9).

I’ve already said to avoid Briscoe in his section above, but you can also avoid Ross Chastain as well. He has just three Top 10s in 11 starts at Kansas. Wallace is a sneaky play and could be a Top 10 driver. However, I have Logano finishing in the Top 5 this weekend and wouldn’t be surprised if he won.

Take the #22 car to win this group bet. I just don’t understand why oddsmakers are so down on Logano in this race.

Bet: Joey Logano (+250)

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+160)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+170)
• 23XI Racing (+550)
• Team Penske (+800)
• RFK Racing (+1000)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+1800)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2000)
• Trackhouse Racing (+2000)

I’ve alluded to this multiple times above, but Hendrick Motorsports is my choice this weekend. They have four drivers in the Playoffs and I expect all of them to make some noise this weekend. Larson and Elliott are in my Top 5 drivers for this race, but Bowman and Byron could surprise as well.

If you want to hedge your bet, then go with Joe Gibbs Racing as Hamlin, Bell and Truex are all going to finish high on Sunday at Kansas. Typically, I like hedging my bet with one of these NASCAR props, but I just feel so strongly about Larson after last weekend’s Bristol event.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+170)

Winning Car Number

• Over 13.5 (-110)
• Under 13.5 (-110)

I love the Under for this prop bet, because we get Larson (5), Elliott (9), and Hamlin (11). Sure, there are other drivers like Keselowski (6) and Busch (8) who have won at this track and could sneak up on us this weekend, but the trio listed above is the main reason why.

All three of Larson, Elliott and Hamlin can win this race. I expect the three of them to finish in the Top 5 and picked Larson to win. But, Elliott has the best average finish at this track and Hamlin has the most Kansas wins. So, you are getting the three best Kansas drivers in my opinion.

Bet: Under 13.5 (-110)