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The Jaguars and Texans will kick off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 29th at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Texans are the heavy favorite with a money line of -313, and they are favored by -7 on the point spread. This week four AFC South matchup is being televised on CBS, with the over/under line set at 45.5 points.
Jacksonville vs. Houston Key Information
- Teams: Jaguars at Texans
- Where: NRG Stadium Houston
- Date: Sunday, September 29th
- Betting Odds HOU -313 | JAX +250 O/U 45.5
The Jaguars Can Win If…
The Jaguars are still looking for their first win of the season after getting blown out 47-10 by the Bills in their most recent game. Jacksonville’s record is now 0-3 after the loss. The Jaguars were 4-point underdogs heading into the game, and the 37-point defeat was well below that. The combined 57 points easily surpassed the over/under line of 46.5 points.Jacksonville fell behind early, with the Bills leading 13-0 after the 1st quarter. The Jaguars managed only a field goal in the 2nd quarter and trailed 34-3 at halftime. Although they did find the endzone a couple of times in the 3rd quarter, the Bills were already up 37-10 heading into the 4th quarter. Jacksonville’s defense had no answer for Buffalo’s passing game, as Josh Allen threw for five touchdowns in the game.
Jacksonville’s offensive line struggled in their most recent game, allowing five sacks and giving Trevor Lawrence a tough time in the passing game. The Jaguars’ offense was forced to 147 yards through the air on 38 attempts in their 47-10 loss to the Bills. Lawrence finished with 178 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 65. He was also intercepted once.
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On the ground, the Jaguars managed 92 yards on 17 attempts, with Travis Etienne Jr. leading the team with 68 yards rushing, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt and with a long run of 22 yards. Christian Kirk was the leading receiver with 79 yards on eight catches.
In their 47-10 loss to the Bills, the Jaguars’ defense struggled to generate any pressure, finishing with no sacks and losing the QB hit differential by -8. Buffalo’s passing attack was efficient, scoring four passing touchdowns and finishing with 266 yards through the air. Jacksonville didn’t help themselves on third downs either, allowing Buffalo to convert 54.5% of their third down attempts.The Jaguars’ defense also failed to defend a single pass attempt in the game, as Buffalo’s passing game found success at all levels. Despite the Jaguars’ offense struggling, the defense allowed 122 rushing yards on 29 attempts.
- Over their last three regular season games, the Jaguars have gone 0-3 straight up. Against the spread, Jacksonville went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 1-2.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the Jaguars have gone 2-8 straight up. This includes going 3-7 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 4-6.
The Texans Can Win If…
Looking to bounce back from a 34-7 loss to the Vikings, the Texans are now 2-1 on the season. Houston fell behind quickly in this one, trailing 14-0 after the 1st quarter and 21-0 by halftime. The Texans managed to score in the 3rd quarter when C.J. Stroud connected with Nico Collins for a touchdown, but by then, they were already down 21-7.
After their 3rd quarter touchdown, the Texans allowed the Vikings to score just over a minute later and then added 13 points in the 4th quarter. Houston came into the game as slight 1.5-point favorites but ended up losing by 27 points. The combined 41 points fell short of the O/U line of 46.5 points.
The Texans’ offense struggled in their 34-7 loss to the Vikings, managing just 38 rushing yards on 14 attempts. They also allowed five sacks and turned the ball over twice on interceptions. Despite finishing with 17 first downs, Houston’s offense failed to get anything going, as they didn’t complete a pass in the game.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud led the Texans with 215 yards passing, going 20/31 with one touchdown and two interceptions. He was also sacked five times. On the receiving end, Stefon Diggs had 10 catches for 94 yards to lead the team.
In their 34-7 loss to the Vikings, the Texans’ defense gave up four passing touchdowns without allowing a single completion, although they did allow 156 yards through the air. The Texans’ offense didn’t help much, as they managed just 274 total yards. On the ground, the Texans gave up 118 yards on 28 attempts. Despite their struggles, the Texans’ defense did manage to sack the quarterback four times.Minnesota took advantage of their opportunities, converting 46.2% of their third downs. Houston’s defense will be looking to improve in their next game after giving up four passing touchdowns and not forcing any incompletions.
- Spanning across their last three games, Houston have gone 3-0. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 1-2.
- Houston has put together a record of 8-2 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, Houston went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 3-7.
The Lean
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Jaguars to cover as road underdogs in this week four matchup between the Jaguars and Texans. The point spread line is currently at +7 in favor of the Jaguars, and we have them winning by a score of 22-17.
For this week’s over/under pick, we like the under, with a projected combined score of 39 points. The current line is 45.5 points, making the under a good value pick for this Jaguars vs. Texans matchup.
Jaguars, Facing Texans, Look to Rebound from ‘Disaster’
The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of three winless teams in the NFL, and they find themselves in a state of disarray. The Jaguars (0-3) will try to get back on track and claim their first win of the season when they visit the Houston Texans (2-1) for an AFC South battle on Sunday.
Jaguars’ Struggles Continue After Blowout Loss to Bills
Jacksonville’s troubles culminated in a humiliating 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The Jaguars were down 34-3 by halftime, as Buffalo scored touchdowns on all five of its first-half possessions.
“The game the other night was just a disaster on every level,” Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence said on Wednesday.
Despite the team’s struggles, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson remains hopeful that things can improve.
“It’s not the end of anybody’s season; it’s Week 4,” Pederson said. “We just have to figure out a way to play good football. Right now, the tape shows that we’re not, and we’ve got to fix that.”
Trevor Lawrence Aims for Improvement
A win over the Texans would go a long way toward alleviating the pressure on Pederson and Lawrence, who has yet to deliver consistently. The Jaguars have lost their last eight games with Lawrence as the starting quarterback. This season, Lawrence has completed just 52.8 percent of his passes and has been sacked 11 times.
“I’ve got to play really well for us to win,” Lawrence said. “That’s the NFL. The quarterback has to play well every week in order to give us a shot to win. I don’t feel like I’ve done that consistently enough, so I put that on myself.”
So far this season, Lawrence has thrown for 560 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. The Jaguars’ offense ranks 30th in scoring (13.3 points per game) and 27th in total yardage (276.3).
Lawrence signed a five-year, $275 million extension in the offseason, a deal that positions him as the franchise’s cornerstone. However, Pederson indicated that backup quarterback Mac Jones could be called upon if Lawrence’s struggles continue.
C.J. Stroud Leads Texans Despite Loss to Vikings
In contrast, the Texans have found stability at quarterback. Second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud has continued to impress after a strong rookie season. Stroud led Houston to a 10-7 record and a playoff win last year and has started this season by completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 709 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions.
Still, the Texans are coming off a tough 34-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last weekend. Stroud passed for 215 yards and a touchdown but also threw two interceptions and was sacked four times. The Texans were also penalized 11 times during the game.
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“They kicked our butts, kudos to those guys,” Stroud said on Wednesday. “It is Week 4 now. We are going to move on. We are going to play against the Jaguars, who are a good team, and focus on that.”
Injuries Impact Both Teams Heading into Sunday
Despite the Jaguars’ winless record, Texans coach DeMeco Ryans knows his team can’t take their division rival lightly. While Houston has won 10 of the past 12 meetings, the teams split their series last season.
“We have a division opponent coming into our house,” Ryans said. “It’s going to be a tough matchup. We both know each other very well, and it’s going to be a fight, so we’re looking forward to the matchup.”
The Texans may have to play without running back Joe Mixon, who rushed for 184 yards over the first two games before missing last week with an ankle injury. Mixon didn’t practice on Wednesday, putting his availability in question. Other key Texans, including wide receiver Tank Dell (chest), running back Dameon Pierce (hamstring), and defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi (shoulder), also missed practice on Wednesday.
For the Jaguars, standout linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (foot) is unlikely to play after getting injured against Buffalo. Tight end Evan Engram (hamstring), who missed practice Wednesday, could miss his third consecutive game.
