San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions September 29th 2024

Struggling on defense, 49ers meet offense-challenged Patriots

On Sunday, September 29th, the 49ers will host the Patriots at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. The 4:05 ET non-conference matchup is being televised by FOX. The 49ers are favored by -10, with a money line of -526, while the Patriots’ money line odds are +389. The over/under line is 39.5 points.

New England vs. San Francisco Key Information

• Teams: Patriots at 49ers
• Where: Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara
• Date: Sunday, September 29th
• Betting Odds SF -526 | NE +389 O/U 39.5

The Patriots Can Win If…

The Patriots are now 1-2 after their 24-3 loss to the Jets. New England fell behind early, as Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard connected for a 10-yard touchdown, putting the Patriots behind 7-0. New England managed to kick a field goal in the 2nd quarter, but the Jets added another touchdown before the half and a late touchdown right before halftime to make it 21-3.New England’s only points came from a Joey Slye field goal in the 2nd quarter. The Patriots were 6.5-point underdogs on the road and were well off the mark with the 21-point loss. The over/under line was set at 39, with a combined scoring of 27 points.

The Patriots managed just 11 first downs in their 24-3 loss to the Jets, and their offense struggled to just 61 yards passing. New England’s running game had 78 yards on 15 attempts. Jacoby Brissett was sacked seven times and finished with 98 yards passing, going 12/18. He didn’t throw any touchdowns.

Demario Douglas led the Patriots with 69 receiving yards on seven catches. New England didn’t complete a pass on third down, finishing with a 18.2% third-down conversion rate. Antonio Gibson was the top rusher with 29 yards.

The Patriots’ defense struggled to generate pressure in their most recent game against the Jets, losing 24-3. Despite not allowing a single completion, the Jets still managed 267 passing yards, including two passing touchdowns. New England’s run defense allowed 133 yards on 33 attempts, with a few big plays contributing to this figure.The Patriots allowed the Jets to convert on 66.7% of their third down attempts. Although New England did come away with two sacks, they were unable to consistently disrupt the Jets’ passing game, and the offense couldn’t capitalize, scoring just three points.

• Across New England’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. This includes going 1-1-1 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• The Patriots have gone 3-7 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, New England went 4-4-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The 49ers Can Win If…

Despite leading 14-0 after the 1st quarter, the 49ers ended up losing their most recent game to the Rams by a score of 27-24. San Francisco also missed a big opportunity to take a 24-17 lead in the 4th quarter when Jake Moody missed a 55-yard field goal with 2:48 remaining. The 49ers are now 1-2 on the season. The Rams outscored the 49ers 13-3 in the 4th quarter.

Heading into the 4th quarter, the 49ers were still up 24-14, but the Rams fought back and tied the game with 2:43 left in the 4th on a Matthew Stafford touchdown pass to Tutu Atwell. The 49ers missed a chance to take the lead back when they allowed the Rams to kick a field goal with five seconds left in the 4th. The 49ers were on the road in this one and still favored by -6, even though they lost the game straight-up by three points.

Despite their 27-24 loss to the Rams, the 49ers’ offense put up 25 first downs and 137 rushing yards on 34 attempts. They also had a good day passing, with Brock Purdy throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns, while completing 73% of his passes. Purdy was sacked once and didn’t throw any interceptions.

Jauan Jennings had a big game, catching 11 passes for 175 yards and scoring three touchdowns. Jordan Mason led the team in rushing with 77 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt. The 49ers also converted 54.5% of their third down attempts.

In their 27-24 loss to the Rams, the 49ers’ defense allowed 198 passing yards. They held the Rams to 41.7% on third down and recorded three sacks in the game. The 49ers’ defense also didn’t allow a single completion in the passing game.On the ground, the 49ers gave up 98 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Despite their strong effort against the run, the 49ers couldn’t come up with a win, as they allowed the Rams to finish with 296 total yards.

• The 49ers have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the 49ers have gone 7-3 straight up. In these contests, the team went just 3-7 against the spread, while going 7-3 on the over-under.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the 49ers to cover as home favorites in this week four matchup against the Patriots. Currently, the point spread is sitting at -10 in favor of the Patriots, but we have the 49ers pulling off the upset by a score of 23-12.

As for the over/under, with the line at 39.5 points, we are leaning towards the under with a projected combined score of 35 points.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

The New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers are set to clash in Santa Clara, California, this Sunday, both looking to break two-game losing streaks. Each team faces critical issues—whether on defense, offense, or injuries—that have derailed their early seasons. This matchup promises a battle between two struggling teams, each desperate for a win to salvage their season.

Recent Struggles and Performance Overview

Both teams have endured a rough start to the season:

• New England Patriots (1-2): After an opening-week win against Cincinnati (16-10), the Patriots have since dropped close games against Seattle (23-20) and were embarrassed on the road by the New York Jets (24-3). The offense has been the main culprit, lacking rhythm and efficiency.
• San Francisco 49ers (1-2): The 49ers opened with a decisive 32-19 win against the Jets, but fell to Minnesota (23-17) and Los Angeles Rams (27-24) in back-to-back road games. Injuries and defensive lapses have plagued the 49ers despite a relatively strong offense.

Key Injuries Hindering Both Teams

Both teams enter this week with critical players sidelined, further compounding their problems:

• San Francisco 49ers:
  • Christian McCaffrey remains on injured reserve due to Achilles tendinitis, significantly weakening their ground game.
  • Star wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle are also struggling with injuries. Samuel (calf) did not practice mid-week, and Kittle (hamstring) was limited.
  • Offensive tackle Trent Williams missed practice due to illness, raising further concerns about the team’s protection and blocking schemes.
• New England Patriots:
  • The Patriots’ offensive line has been hit hard, with Michael Jordan (ankle) and Vederian Lowe (knee) missing practice. This instability has caused major issues for quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who has been unable to find a groove behind an inconsistent line.

Offensive Woes: Patriots Rank Near the Bottom

The New England offense has been the weakest part of the team:

• The Patriots rank 31st in points per game (13.0) and dead last in total yards per game (246.3).
• Their passing game is ranked 32nd, producing a mere 102.0 passing yards per contest, with Jacoby Brissett struggling under constant pressure.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of the few bright spots, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, but his three fumbles in as many games highlight the lack of consistency.

Coach Jerod Mayo reaffirmed his commitment to Brissett as the starter, despite growing frustrations with the offense. Rookie first-round pick Drake Maye remains second on the depth chart, with no plans to bring in a veteran quarterback.

49ers’ Offense Shows Resilience Despite Star Absences

Even with key offensive players sidelined, the 49ers’ offense has been far more productive:

• San Francisco ranks 9th in points per game (24.3) and 3rd in total yards per game (407.3), thanks to impressive depth and flexibility.
• Jauan Jennings has emerged as a go-to receiver, with 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns in their latest game against the Rams. He’s helped fill the void left by McCaffrey, Samuel, and Kittle.

However, continued success will depend on the recovery of their stars and maintaining this offensive momentum against tougher defenses in the weeks ahead.

Defensive Issues Plaguing the 49ers

While their offense has held up, the 49ers’ defense has been alarmingly weak:

• 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per play (6.1) and struggling with third-down stops, allowing a conversion rate of 52.9%.
• The loss of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave to a torn right triceps is a major blow, leaving a gaping hole in the defensive line.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan acknowledged that the defense has been underperforming, saying, “We’re not playing up to how we usually do, and we have to make sure to get back to playing that way.”

Coaching Perspectives and Game Outlook

Both teams’ coaches have stressed the need for improvement but remain optimistic about overcoming their respective challenges:

• Jerod Mayo believes that the Patriots are still capable of turning things around despite their offensive woes. He emphasized the need to win the battle at the line of scrimmage, calling out the 49ers’ defensive and offensive lines as key to the game.
• Kyle Shanahan is focused on getting the defense back to its elite form. While the injuries are significant, Shanahan noted that injuries are part of the game and must be overcome.

Key Matchup: Offensive Line vs. Defensive Front

A crucial aspect of this game will be the battle in the trenches:

• The Patriots’ depleted offensive line will be up against a 49ers’ defensive front that, while weakened by Hargrave’s absence, still has the potential to disrupt Brissett and the Patriots’ limited passing game.
• On the other hand, the 49ers’ offensive line, led by backup players due to Williams’ illness, must protect quarterback Brock Purdy and open up running lanes, even without McCaffrey.

Historical Context and Final Thoughts

This game will be the first meeting between the two teams since 2020, when the 49ers dominated the Patriots 33-6. Both teams have since undergone significant changes, but the stakes are just as high. A loss would send either team into a deeper hole, threatening their playoff hopes.

As Jerod Mayo aptly put it, “We’ll see what this team is made of going forward.” The long trip west will test New England’s resilience, while the 49ers will be looking to leverage home-field advantage and rediscover their defensive identity.

Conclusion

This matchup between the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers presents a classic contrast: a faltering Patriots offense vs. a struggling 49ers defense. While New England desperately needs to find solutions in the passing game and fix its offensive line, San Francisco must tighten up on defense and hope for the return of key players to maintain offensive productivity. It’s a critical game for both teams, and the outcome could set the tone for the rest of their seasons.