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The Ravens are favored at -137 on the money line as they host the Bills at 8:20 ET on Sunday, September 29th. The Bills and Ravens are both looking to add to their records in this week four AFC matchup, which is being televised on NBC. Buffalo’s point spread is +2.5, and the over/under line is set at 46.5 points.
Buffalo vs. Baltimore Key Information
- Teams: Bills at Ravens
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore
- Date: Sunday, September 29th
- Betting Odds BAL -137 | BUF +114 O/U 46.5
The Bills Can Win If…
Buffalo is now 3-0 after a 47-10 win over the Jaguars. Favored by -4, the Bills easily covered the spread with their 37-point victory. The combined 57 points went over the total line of 46.5 points. The Bills dominated from the start, leading 13-0 after the first quarter and 34-3 by halftime.
Josh Allen had a big game, throwing multiple touchdowns in the second quarter to help Buffalo pull away. The Bills also got a rushing touchdown from James Cook and a late 4th quarter touchdown from Ray Davis to cap off the win.
The Bills’ offense put up 47 points in their most recent game, with Josh Allen throwing for 263 yards and completing 76% of his passes. Allen also had a big game on the ground, rushing for 44 yards and leading the team in rushing. Buffalo’s offense had 25 first downs and 122 rushing yards on 29 attempts.
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Allen threw four touchdown passes in the game, with Khalil Shakir leading the team with 72 receiving yards and a touchdown. Allen’s passer rating was 142, and he was not sacked in the game.
In their most recent game, the Buffalo Bills’ defense was dominant, allowing the Jaguars to complete zero passes. They held Jacksonville to just 92 yards rushing on 17 attempts and forced them to go 0-11 on third down. The Bills’ defense also recorded five sacks, one interception, and limited the Jaguars to just 147 total yards in their 47-10 win.Buffalo’s defense didn’t allow a single completion in the passing game, and the Jaguars’ only touchdown came on a 58-yard fumble return. The Bills’ pass rush was strong, as they hit the quarterback 8 more times than Jacksonville and also had 5 tackles for loss in the game.
- Over their last three games, the Bills have gone 3-0 straight up. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-1. Their over-under record in these games was 2-1.
- Buffalo has put together a record of 9-1 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record against the spread in this stretch is 6-4 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.
The Ravens Can Win If…
The Ravens are now 1-2 after their 28-25 win over the Cowboys. Baltimore took a 14-3 lead after the 1st quarter and extended it to 21-6 at halftime. Even though the Cowboys outscored the Ravens 19-0 in the 4th quarter, Baltimore’s early lead was enough to secure the win.
Heading into the game, the Ravens were 1.5-point favorites, and with the 3-point win, they covered the spread. The combined 53 points went over the total line of 47.5 points.
Despite not attempting a pass, the Ravens still managed to come out on top with a 28-25 win over the Cowboys. Lamar Jackson completed 12 of 15 passes for 182 yards and one touchdown. The Ravens’ ground game was their strength, rushing for 274 yards on 45 attempts, with Jackson leading the team with 87 yards rushing and one touchdown.
Derrick Henry was the Ravens’ top rusher, gaining 151 yards on 25 attempts and finding the end zone twice. Nelson Agholor was the leading receiver with one catch for 56 yards. Baltimore finished the game with 24 first downs and a 44.4% conversion rate on third down.
In their 28-25 win over the Cowboys, the Ravens’ defense gave up 412 yards but limited Dallas to just 51 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Despite not allowing a single completion, they did give up 361 yards through the air, with two passing touchdowns. On 3rd downs, the Cowboys converted 53.8% of their chances.Baltimore’s defense managed three sacks and had six more quarterback hits than Dallas. The Ravens’ secondary also forced the Cowboys into a number of downfield throws, resulting in a high passing yardage total.
- Across Baltimore’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. The team’s record vs the spread was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 1-1-1.
- Baltimore has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, Baltimore went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-3-1.
The Lean
Our pick vs. the spread in this week four matchup between the Ravens and Bills is to take Buffalo to cover as road underdogs. The point spread currently has the Bills at +2.5, and while our projected score has the Ravens winning 22-21, we like Buffalo to cover at this line.
As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 46.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under with a projected combined score of 43 points.
Ravens View Bills as Perfect Chance to Prove They Belong
The Buffalo Bills are one of five remaining undefeated teams in the NFL at 3-0, while the Baltimore Ravens are hungry to prove they still belong among the top teams in the AFC. When the Ravens host the Bills on Sunday night in Baltimore, they’ll have a special advantage – the energy from their annual “Darkness Falls” game, a college-style blackout that has Lamar Jackson excited.
Ravens Ready for “Darkness Falls” Game
The Ravens (1-2) are hosting their second “Darkness Falls” game, where fans are encouraged to wear all black, creating an intimidating atmosphere at M&T Bank Stadium. Lamar Jackson, who thrives on the intensity of the crowd, is particularly excited about it.
“Hearing the ‘Flock,’ just seeing all black throughout the crowd, it’s like you can’t escape,” Jackson said. “It’s something about it, man, I can’t really describe it. Like the dark side.”
Baltimore Seeks Consistency After Narrow Win vs. Cowboys
Despite their 1-2 record, the Ravens showed grit last Sunday in their 28-25 win over the Dallas Cowboys. However, they let a commanding 22-point lead slip in the fourth quarter, continuing a troubling trend. Baltimore has been outscored 32-7 in the fourth quarter over their past two games, something coach John Harbaugh will want to address.
Derrick Henry was the star against the Cowboys, racking up 151 of the Ravens’ 274 rushing yards and scoring two touchdowns. Jackson contributed 87 rushing yards and a touchdown, while Justice Hill added 33 yards on five carries.
“They are kind of a good 1-2 punch,” Harbaugh said of Henry and Hill. “They run the same plays, but they also run different plays at times. It’s a good change of pace for the defense.”
Ravens Bolster Defense With Yannick Ngakoue
The Ravens have been working to tweak their defense, adding veteran pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue to their practice squad earlier this week. Ngakoue, who has 69 career sacks, previously played nine games for the Ravens in 2020.
Baltimore’s Kyle Van Noy is also making his mark, tied for third in the NFL with four sacks. The defense will need to be sharp against Buffalo’s high-powered offense.
Bills Riding High After Dominating Jaguars
While the Ravens have been inconsistent, there’s been little to criticize about the Bills this season. Buffalo (3-0) demolished the Jacksonville Jaguars 47-10 on Monday night, extending their league-best scoring differential to plus-64. The Bills have also forced five turnovers, and their defense ranks among the top 10 in multiple categories.
Josh Allen leads the NFL’s highest-scoring offense, which averages 37.3 points per game. Allen torched the Jaguars for four passing touchdowns before halftime, earning him AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.
“It’s a shame our O-line can’t win Offensive Player of the Week,” Allen joked, praising the play of his offensive line.
Damar Hamlin’s Emotional First Interception
Buffalo’s defense also shined in the Jacksonville blowout, with Damar Hamlin grabbing his first career interception. For Hamlin, who suffered cardiac arrest during a game less than 20 months ago, the moment was special.
“We keep it simple and everybody’s keeping the team first,” Hamlin said. “Buffalo is a special place to be.”
Injuries Impacting Both Teams Ahead of Sunday
The Bills will be without linebacker Terrel Bernard (pec) and cornerback Taron Johnson (forearm), while rookie offensive lineman Tylan Grable (groin) is out for multiple weeks. Cornerback Kaiir Elam (neck) was limited in practice.
The Ravens are dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Center Tyler Linderbaum (knee), left guard Andrew Vorhees (ankle), and right tackle Patrick Mekari (neck) all missed Wednesday’s practice. Nose tackle Michael Pierce (shoulder) and cornerback Jalyn Armour-Davis (hamstring) also sat out, while linebacker Roquan Smith (ankle) was limited.
Bills Have Recent Success vs. Ravens
The Bills have won two straight meetings with the Ravens, including a playoff victory in the divisional round of the 2020-21 season. Sunday’s game will be another big test for Baltimore as they aim to prove they still belong among the AFC’s elite.
