Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks and Predictions September 27th 2024

At 6:45 PM ET, the Phillies and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -185 compared to the Nationals at +155. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Philadelphia has a record of 94-65, while the Nationals are 69-90. Trevor Williams is starting for the Nationals, and they are looking to snap a four-game losing streak. The Phillies are starting Ranger Suarez. NSPPH is carrying the game on TV.

Philadelphia vs. Washington Key Information

Ranger Suárez is looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Mets on September 21st, he gave up two earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back further, Suárez has made 26 starts and has a record of 12-7 this season. His ERA is 3.15, along with a WHIP of 1.16. Suárez has one complete game shutout this year to go along with 11 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.66 strikeouts and just 2.36 walks.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, the Phillies are 7th in home runs and have the league’s 4th best team batting average.

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Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Schwarber’s 38 homers leading the team and Harper coming in with 30. Harper is also batting .286 for the season and has a team-high 87 RBIs. Schwarber has gone 10/39 in his last nine games, with three homers and six RBIs. Nick Castellanos has also been hot of late, going 14/33 with three homers in his last nine games.

Trevor Williams will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he took the loss and gave up one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing vs. the Cubs, he gave up three hits and issued zero walks. Looking back further, Williams has made 12 starts and has a record of 5-1 and an ERA of 2.19. Opposing batters are hitting .218 this season vs. Williams. Out of his 12 starts, he has turned in one quality start and is averaging 7.88 strikeouts per nine innings. Williams’ ERA at home is 1.67 compared to 2.51 on the road.

The Nationals offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 25th in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team slugging percentage. However, they do have two of the league’s top home run hitters in CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. Abrams leads the team with 20 homers, while Garcia Jr. is 2nd with 17 and leads the team with 68 RBIs.

Joey Gallo has two homers in his last seven games, but he is hitting just .250 over that stretch. The Nationals will also be looking for some of their other hitters to get going, as Lane Thomas and James Wood are on hitting streaks of just 3 and 4 games, respectively.

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the over, as we have this as the 10th highest-scoring game of the day. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we are leaning towards the Phillies to come out on top. Looking at today’s starters, we have Ranger Suárez as our 15th ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts compared to Trevor Williams, who is 14th.

Phillies Finish Against Nationals With Eye on NL’s Top Record

The Philadelphia Phillies have already secured the National League East title and a first-round bye into the NL Division Series. However, they still have plenty at stake as they head into a three-game road series against the Washington Nationals, which begins Friday night.

Philadelphia (94-65) remains locked in a tight race with the Los Angeles Dodgers (95-64) for the best record in the National League, a battle that could determine home-field advantage should the two teams meet in the NL Championship Series. Given the Phillies’ MLB-best home record (54-27), securing home-field advantage could be pivotal.

“We always play better at home, and a lot of it has to do with our fan base, the support we get, the energy it gives our guys,” said Phillies manager Rob Thompson, who guided the team to the World Series two years ago. “Anything can happen in the playoffs, but this is the best team since I’ve been here. They are tough and resilient. They prepare, they compete every day. I trust them.”

Phillies’ Pitching Rotation Set for Nationals Series

Thompson plans to use his top three starters — Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.56 ERA), Aaron Nola (13-8, 3.52 ERA), and Ranger Suarez (12-7, 3.15 ERA) — during the series against the Nationals. However, he hinted that their workloads could be lightened to ensure they’re rested for the postseason.

Suarez, who will take the mound in the series opener, has been effective against Washington throughout his career, posting a 7-1 record and a 3.64 ERA in 15 career appearances (eight starts). At Nationals Park, he’s even more impressive, boasting a 3-0 record with a 2.63 ERA in six appearances (four starts). He picked up a win in his only previous start against the Nationals this season, a 5-2 victory on April 6, in which he allowed two runs over six innings.

Nationals Look to Play Spoiler

The Nationals (69-90), on the other hand, will turn to right-hander Trevor Williams (5-1, 2.19 ERA) for his 13th start of the season. Williams is no stranger to the Phillies, with a 2-4 career record and a 5.29 ERA in 11 appearances (nine starts) against them. He picked up a no-decision in his most recent start against Philadelphia on May 19, where he allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Williams, who missed nearly half the season due to a flexor strain, has pitched well since his return, allowing one run over five innings in a 3-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Sept. 20. He struck out seven, walked none, and gave up only three hits in that outing.

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Nationals Enter Series on a Downturn

Washington enters Friday’s series opener in the midst of a four-game losing streak, having just been swept by the Kansas City Royals. On Thursday afternoon, a pinch-hit two-run single by Adam Frazier in the ninth inning handed the Royals a 7-4 win, completing the sweep. The Nationals have now lost nine of their last 10 games and sit 25 games behind the Phillies in fourth place in the NL East.

Despite the difficult end to the season, Nationals manager Dave Martinez remains optimistic about the growth and effort he’s seen from his rebuilding team.

“It’s not for a lack of effort,” Martinez said. “These guys are really pushing. They’re trying. They’re working hard, and they care. They’re just as upset about losing a game today as they were two months ago. Nobody’s giving up. I know sometimes they’re pressing. They want to win. … We’ve just got to make it happen.”

Looking Ahead

While the Phillies are focused on ending the season with the NL’s top record, the Nationals are looking to finish strong despite their tough season. Both teams have clear motivations as they enter this series, making it an intriguing matchup as the regular season draws to a close.