Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions September 27th 2024

Yu Darvish will start for the Padres on Friday, as they are on the road to face the Diamondbacks in Phoenix. Darvish has been solid this season, going 7-6 with a 3.87 ERA. Merrill Kelly will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he is 88-71 overall. The money line odds have the Diamondbacks favored at -132, while the Padres are the slight underdog at +110. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and you can catch this one on MLB Network.

First pitch from Chase Field is set for 9:40 PM ET, and this NL West matchup can be seen on MLB Network. The Padres are 91-68 this season, while the Diamondbacks are 88-71. San Diego is currently on a two-game losing streak, and they are 2nd in the NL West, while the Diamondbacks are 3rd.

San Diego vs. Arizona Key Information

Yu Darvish gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. He has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 6-3 with an ERA of 3.18. Darvish’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.06. The right-hander most recently faced the White Sox, where he finished with a no-decision, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts. Darvish has been much better on the road this year, coming in with a record of 3-0 and an ERA of 2.25 compared to 4.34 at home.

San Diego has the league’s top batting average, and they have been one of the top home run-hitting teams in the league this season. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road at 5 runs per contest. The Padres have been very good at avoiding strikeouts this season, and they have the league’s best team on-base percentage.

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Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar have been the Padres’ top power hitters this season, as they are both tied for 2nd on the team with 24 homers. Machado’s 104 RBIs is 8th best in the league and the top mark on the team. Machado has gone deep twice in his last five games, going 6/19 in that stretch. Luis Arraez has been a consistent hitter for the Padres, batting .312 with 45 RBIs.

Through 12 starts, Merrill Kelly has yet to take a loss, coming in with a record of 5-0 and ERA of 3.71. His WHIP for the season is 1.13. Kelly has made five quality starts this year and is coming off a great outing against the Brewers, where he got the win. In that start, he went five innings, didn’t give up a run, and only allowed two hits. Kelly has been especially tough on the road, with a record of 3-0 and 3.98 ERA compared to 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA at home.

Arizona has the best offense in the majors this season, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.7 runs per contest. Not only do the Diamondbacks lead the league in on-base percentage and OPS, but they are also 2nd in team batting average and 2nd in slugging.

Ketel Marte has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/23 in his last seven games with three home runs. For the season, he is batting .294 with a team-high 35 homers and 93 RBIs. Eugenio Suarez has 29 homers this season and has driven in 98 runs, which is 11th best in the league.

For an over/under pick, our lean is on the over, as this is projected to be the 6th highest-scoring game of today’s slate. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Diamondbacks to come out on top. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has the 5th best odds to pick up the win, and Yu Darvish is 13th in our projections in terms of strikeouts.

Diamondbacks Aim to Improve Standing in Opener vs. Padres

The Arizona Diamondbacks face a crucial three-game series against the San Diego Padres starting Friday night in Phoenix. With the race for the final two National League wild-card spots heating up, the Diamondbacks (88-71) need to secure as many wins as possible in the final stretch.

Arizona is competing with the New York Mets (87-70) and Atlanta Braves (86-71) for those last two playoff positions. The Mets and Braves had the final two games of their three-game series in Atlanta postponed due to rain, with a doubleheader scheduled for Monday that could decide the playoff fate for both teams.

“We’ll just try to do the best we can for the next three games,” Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said. “We know who’s coming to town, and we’ve got to be at our absolute best, and I’m sure we will be ready for that challenge.”

Diamondbacks Looking to Maintain Momentum

The Diamondbacks snapped a three-game losing streak with an 8-2 win over the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. Arizona had Thursday off and now looks to capitalize on their remaining home games to solidify their playoff position.

First baseman Christian Walker expressed optimism, stating, “Anything to make it more exciting and (add) some more fireworks. It’ll be fun to follow and watch, for sure.”

Padres Seek Top Wild-Card Spot

The San Diego Padres (91-68) have already clinched a wild-card berth, but their hopes of winning the NL West were dashed with a 7-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday. Now, they need to win two games against Arizona to secure the top wild-card position and gain the No. 4 seed, which would give them home-field advantage in the opening round of the playoffs.

“We’re excited about what’s in our window going forward,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said after Thursday’s game. “We will shrug this off and be ready to play in Arizona and to go after the ultimate goal.”

Pitching Matchup: Darvish vs. Kelly

The Padres are moving right-hander Yu Darvish (6-3, 3.18 ERA) up a day to start Friday’s game. Darvish has been strong recently, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA over his last three starts. He struck out nine batters in his last outing, a no-decision against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, where he allowed two runs over 6 1/3 innings.

Darvish has not faced the Diamondbacks this season but has had success against them in the past, boasting an 8-4 record with a 3.55 ERA in 18 career starts against Arizona. Key matchups include Christian Walker, who is 8-for-28 with two homers against Darvish, and Corbin Carroll, who is 6-for-11 with a home run.

Arizona will counter with right-hander Merrill Kelly (5-0, 3.71 ERA), who is undefeated in four September starts with a 2.45 ERA. Kelly has been a reliable arm for the Diamondbacks and will be facing the Padres for the first time this season. In his career, Kelly is 9-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 15 starts against San Diego.

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The Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. has had success against Kelly, going 8-for-22 with four home runs. Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth have also homered off Kelly in their careers.

Series Outlook

Both teams have split their 10 meetings this season, making this series pivotal for Arizona’s playoff chances and San Diego’s bid to lock up the No. 4 seed. With both teams having a lot on the line, this series is shaping up to be a tense, competitive showdown as the regular season comes to a close.