Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 28th 2024

Rays turn to Shane Baz in rematch vs. Red Sox

From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Rays and Red Sox facing off in an AL East matchup. First pitch is at 4:10 PM ET, and the forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 60s. Shane Baz is starting for the Rays, and he is facing off against Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox. Boston is favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -122, while the Rays are at +104. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the Red Sox will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak.

Overall, the Rays are 79-81, while the Red Sox are exactly at .500 with an overall record of 80-80. Saturday’s game can be seen on NESN, and the Red Sox will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak.

Tampa Bay vs. Boston Key Information

• Teams: Rays at Red Sox
• Where: Fenway Park Boston
• Date: Saturday, September 28th
• Betting Odds BOS -122 | TB +104 O/U 8

The Rays Can Win If…

Shane Baz gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. So far this season, he has made 13 starts and has a record of 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA. Baz’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09, and opponents are batting .202 off the right-hander this year. In his 13 starts, Baz has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 7.61 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Baz finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on six hits vs. the Blue Jays. He did give up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had given up a homer in three straight starts.

The Rays offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is the worst in the league. As a team, they are batting just .230 and have an on-base percentage of only .302. So far, they have been a below-average power-hitting team, with a collective ISO of .137.

Yandy Diaz has been the Rays’ top hitter this season, batting .280 with 14 homers and 65 RBIs. Christopher Morel and Brandon Lowe are tied for the team lead with 21 homers, but Morel is batting just .194 this season. Jose Siri is also batting under .200, coming in at .188. Jonathan Aranda has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/26 with three homers in his last eight games.

• The Rays are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Rays are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 1-8-1 in their last ten games.
• The Rays have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 3-7
• Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Tampa Bay has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.2 runs per game on offense

The Red Sox Can Win If…

Boston is sending Kutter Crawford to the mound today vs. the Rays, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he pitched well and picked up the win. Against the Twins on September 22nd, Crawford went 7 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and he didn’t allow a homer in that outing. Looking back further, he had given up a homer in three straight starts before that outing. Crawford’s overall record this year is 9-15, and he has an ERA of 4.17. Opposing batters are hitting .219 off the right-hander this year.

So far this season, the Red Sox offense is averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .252, which is 6th in the league, and are also near the top of the league in home runs. One of the biggest reasons for their success has been their ability to avoid strikeouts, as they are 28th in the league in this category.

Rafael Devers has been a key power threat for the Red Sox this season, as he is 2nd on the team with 28 homers and is leading the team with 83 RBIs. Devers is batting .272 for the season. Tyler O’Neill has also been a key power threat, as he is 11th in the league with 31 homers. Jarren Duran has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/41 in his last 10 games.

• The Red Sox are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Boston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Red Sox have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 4-6
• Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
• Boston has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money-line pick, we are leaning toward the Red Sox to come out on top at home vs. the Rays. As for how we would play the over/under line, we are leaning toward taking the over, as this is our 2nd lowest projected scoring game of the day. Boston starter Kutter Crawford is our 11th ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts, and he has the 15th best odds to pick up a win.

The Tampa Bay Rays will aim to secure a season-ending series win on the road when they face the Boston Red Sox in the second of three games on Saturday afternoon. Though the Rays (79-81) are out of playoff contention, their focus remains on finishing strong and continuing to develop their promising young core as they look ahead to 2025.

Baz Takes the Mound: A Glimpse of the Rays’ Future

Following an outstanding six shutout innings by Taj Bradley in Tampa Bay’s 2-1 victory on Friday, the Rays will turn to another exciting young pitcher—right-hander Shane Baz. Baz, who enters the game with a solid 3-3 record and 3.07 ERA, represents the future of the Rays’ rotation. The 25-year-old has been in excellent form, boasting a 2.25 ERA over his last seven starts.

Baz’s emergence, along with Bradley’s dominant outing, signals a bright future for Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. Even though postseason baseball is not in the cards this year, these performances are giving Rays fans a lot to look forward to.

Baz himself expressed his enthusiasm, stating, “Hopefully everybody stays healthy and we can have a lot of options, but it’s definitely exciting. Just what we’ve done over the last few weeks has been really impressive to me, too.”

In his most recent start, Baz worked six innings of one-run ball against the Toronto Blue Jays in a no-decision, helping the Rays secure a 4-3 victory. His control and poise on the mound, as well as his ability to deliver in high-pressure situations, have been standout aspects of his development.

Josh Lowe’s Late-Season Surge Fuels Rays’ Offense

While the Rays were out-hit 6-5 in Friday’s win, they capitalized on timely hitting in the seventh inning, led by outfielder Josh Lowe. Lowe, who entered the series with a .238 batting average, delivered an RBI double and later scored what would be the decisive run. His ninth multi-hit game since August 26 underscores his late-season resurgence, giving the Rays another young star to be excited about.

“He’s as talented as any guy that we have on the field. So that’s what gives us so much excitement,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said of Lowe. “We’re not looking to flush the year, but when it’s over we will, and say, let’s build off of everything that you did so great the year prior.”

Lowe’s recent performances, coupled with Tampa Bay’s late push (winning eight of their last 14 games), shows a team that is playing for momentum and preparing its young talent for bigger roles next season.

Red Sox Fight to Stay Above .500 Amid Injuries and Inconsistency

The Boston Red Sox (80-80), meanwhile, have struggled with inconsistency and injuries. Despite a four-game winning streak earlier in the month, Boston has split its last 20 games (10-10) and must win both remaining contests to finish the season above .500.

Boston’s hopes will rest on the arm of Kutter Crawford, who will start Saturday’s game after delivering his longest career outing last Sunday against the Minnesota Twins. Crawford struck out seven over 7 2/3 innings in a 9-3 win, his first victory since August 13. However, despite his 9-15 record and 4.17 ERA, Crawford aims to end the season on a positive note.

“Setting goals early in the year, trying to stay healthy, trying to stay durable… not only that but trying to go six innings every time,” Crawford said. “Obviously, the record isn’t what I want it to be, but it’s a good feeling, especially late in the season, to pitch (into) the eighth.”

Crawford has faced the Rays seven times in his career (four starts), posting a 1-1 record and 4.20 ERA, so familiarity could play a role in this matchup.

Offensive Woes and Injuries Plague Boston

The Red Sox have been hampered by a lack of offensive production, exemplified in their 31 games with one or fewer runs scored this season. Despite Nick Pivetta limiting Tampa Bay to two runs in the series opener, Boston’s offense remained quiet, managing just one run on six hits. Vaughn Grissom provided three of those hits, continuing his steady contributions.

Compounding Boston’s issues is the absence of closer Kenley Jansen, who has been dealing with shoulder problems and was placed on the injured list. Rafael Devers, their star third baseman, has also been battling shoulder injuries throughout September, further weakening their lineup.

“I talked to him (Jansen) this week, and as soon as it was over a few days ago and he wasn’t going to pitch, (he went home). There’s other stuff that we talked about,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said, without elaborating further on Jansen’s situation.

The injuries and offensive struggles paint a picture of a team limping to the finish line, desperately hoping to end the season with a winning record.

A Tale of Two Teams: Rays on the Rise, Red Sox Searching for Stability

The Rays’ youth movement, spearheaded by standout performances from players like Shane Baz and Josh Lowe, offers a hopeful outlook for 2025. Tampa Bay’s recent string of strong games reflects a team with a clear direction and promising future, despite the disappointment of missing out on the playoffs this year.

In contrast, the Red Sox, mired in inconsistency and weakened by injuries to key players like Devers and Jansen, are left fighting for pride. As Boston looks to avoid a losing season, questions about the team’s durability and offensive depth loom large heading into the offseason.

As the Rays and Red Sox square off in this pivotal matchup, it’s clear that both teams have much to prove, but Tampa Bay’s young stars may just steal the show as they set the foundation for what could be a breakout season in 2025.

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