Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions September 28th 2024

Astros’ Justin Verlander aims to end struggles in clash with Guardians

From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Astros and Guardians facing off in an AL matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 6:10 PM ET. Justin Verlander is starting for the Astros, while the Guardians are going with Ben Lively. Houston is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.

The Astros are 87-73 this season, while the Guardians come in with a record of 92-68. Both teams are in first place in their respective divisions. BSGL will be televising Saturday’s game.

Houston vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Astros at Guardians
• Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
• Date: Saturday, September 28th
• Betting Odds CLE -117 | HOU -101 O/U 8

The Astros Can Win If…

Right-hander Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 4-6 with an ERA of 5.55. Verlander’s WHIP for the season is 1.40. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Verlander has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 4-3 and an ERA of 4.60. At home, his ERA is 9.44.

Heading into today’s game, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .262, which is the 3rd best mark in the MLB. Houston also has a strong on-base percentage of .322, which is 6th in the league. The Astros have been tough to strike out this season, as they have the 3rd fewest strikeouts in the league.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top run producer this season, as his 86 RBIs are the best mark on the team. His 35 homers are 8th in the league and the most on the team. Alex Bregman has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/38 in his last 10 games with three homers. Kyle Tucker is also swinging a hot bat, hitting .452 over his last eight games.

• The Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Astros are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Houston has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Astros have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Astros are 5-5
• Looking back across the Astros last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Houston has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Astros have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Ben Lively gets the start for the Guardians today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Cardinals on September 20th, he went five innings, giving up just one earned run on three hits. Looking back further, Lively has turned in a solid performance in each of his last three outings, giving up a combined two earned runs in that span. For the season, he has made 28 starts, and his record is 13-9 with a 3.80 ERA. Lively’s WHIP for the season is 1.22.

Over his last seven games, José Ramírez has been swinging a hot bat, going 10/27 with three homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .277 with 38 homers and 115 RBIs. His 115 RBIs are the 3rd most in the league this season. Josh Naylor is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he has gone deep 31 times this season, which is 2nd on the team and 11th in the MLB.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 10th in the league in home runs. Their team batting average of .238 is 11th in the league, and they have been good at putting the ball in play, as their 7 strikeouts per game is the 4th best mark in the league. So far, they have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.7 runs per game.

• The Guardians are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Guardians are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Cleveland has an over/under record of 2-8 in their last ten games.
• The Guardians have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 5-5
• Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cleveland has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.3 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Despite this Astros vs. Guardians matchup being our 3rd lowest projected scoring game of the day, we are still leaning towards taking the over. As for how we would play the money line in this one, we are leaning towards the Astros to come out on top. Houston’s offense is our top projected offense in terms of fewest team strikeouts, and Ben Lively has the 2nd worst chance to pick up a win among today’s starters.

MLB PRONÓSTICOS, PICKS Y APUESTAS

As the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians both secure their playoff spots, their weekend series in Cleveland serves as a potential postseason preview. Currently holding the second and third seeds in the American League (AL), this three-game set could play a pivotal role in determining the strategies both teams adopt for October. With Game 2 looming on Saturday, all eyes are on Justin Verlander, as the veteran pitcher looks to break free from his recent struggles and make a compelling case for a spot on Houston’s postseason roster.

Astros Win Game 1 with Strategic Pitching Setup

In the series opener on Friday, the Astros took a 5-2 victory, showcasing a tactical pitching decision that could be a foreshadowing of their playoff approach. Astros interim manager Joe Espada employed a piggyback system, combining Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti on the mound. The duo allowed only one hit over 7 1/3 scoreless innings, an impressive preview of their potential use in Houston’s bullpen when the playoffs begin.

Espada’s decision to use a tandem system highlights Houston’s focus on bullpen flexibility for the postseason. This strategy is crucial, especially if one of the starting pitchers struggles early in a game. Blanco and Arrighetti, both of whom made 57 starts between them this season, could be used as long-relief arms, offering three or four innings when needed.

“We’re still figuring out the rotation for the first round,” Espada said. “But having those pieces in the bullpen who can give you length when needed—especially in a postseason game—can be the difference-maker.”

Justin Verlander Faces Pressure to Perform

Saturday’s Game 2 will feature Justin Verlander (4-6, 5.55 ERA), who has been struggling since returning from a neck injury that sidelined him for 54 games. Verlander is 1-4 with a concerning 8.89 ERA over his last six starts, with just 18 strikeouts over 27 1/3 innings. This performance marks one of the roughest stretches of his career, raising questions about his potential role in the postseason.

Verlander’s inconsistency has put his spot on the playoff roster at risk. Historically, he has had mixed success against the Guardians, with a 23-24 career record and a 4.41 ERA over 56 starts. His performance on Saturday will be crucial, not just for the Astros’ immediate success but for his future role in the playoffs.

In his previous matchup with Cleveland on May 1, Verlander allowed two runs on six hits over seven innings in a 3-2 home loss. While that outing wasn’t disastrous, his recent form suggests that he will need a significant bounce-back performance to cement his place in the Astros’ postseason plans.

Guardians Count on Ben Lively’s Hot Streak

Countering Verlander on the mound will be Cleveland’s right-hander Ben Lively (13-9, 3.80 ERA), who has been in excellent form. Lively has allowed only one run over his last three starts, compiling an impressive 0.75 ERA across 12 innings. In his most recent outing on Sept. 20, Lively pitched five strong innings in a 5-1 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up just one run on three hits.

Saturday’s game will mark Lively’s first career appearance against the Astros, but his recent form positions him as a formidable challenge for Houston’s veteran lineup. Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt has expressed confidence in Lively’s ability to maintain his consistency, especially as the Guardians aim to hold onto their high playoff seeding.

Joey Cantillo’s Development Offers Guardians a Glimpse of the Future

While the focus of Saturday’s game is on the starters, Cleveland’s rookie right-hander Joey Cantillo has also caught attention. Although Cantillo is unlikely to make an impact in this year’s postseason, his late-season appearances are providing him with valuable experience. Cantillo has shown flashes of potential in his eight career starts, and while he has struggled at times, the Guardians see these moments as opportunities for growth.

Facing an experienced Astros lineup gave Cantillo a tough test in Game 1, but Guardians manager Vogt emphasized the value of such experiences. “It’s a learning curve,” Vogt noted. “He’s got a great changeup, but when teams take away your best pitch, it’s about how you respond. This is going to be a great growth game for Joey.”

Though he may not be a key figure in Cleveland’s postseason run this year, Cantillo’s development is something to watch for the future, as he could become an integral part of the Guardians’ rotation next season.

Astros’ Postseason Rotation Still a Question Mark

For the Astros, the series against Cleveland is more than just a chance to fine-tune before the playoffs—it’s a test of their rotation depth. With Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Yusei Kikuchi expected to anchor the starting spots for a potential three-game wild-card series, the Astros will need to sort out who fills the bullpen roles. Blanco and Arrighetti have both made strong cases to be utilized as long-relief options, should any of the starters falter early.

Verlander, on the other hand, is fighting for his place in this rotation. Once the undisputed ace of the Astros, his recent struggles make this a pivotal moment in determining his role going forward. A strong performance in Game 2 could silence his critics and secure his place on the postseason roster. However, if his struggles continue, it’s likely that Houston will look elsewhere for pitching stability when the games matter most.

Guardians Eye Postseason Pitching Depth

Meanwhile, the Guardians are focused on solidifying their own rotation as they head into the postseason. With Ben Lively continuing his strong run of form, Cleveland’s pitching depth looks solid. Lively’s ability to keep opposing offenses at bay has given the Guardians confidence, particularly as they prepare for a potential deep playoff run.

While rookies like Joey Cantillo won’t play a significant role this postseason, the experience gained during these pressure-packed games will be invaluable for their future. With veterans like Lively leading the way, Cleveland’s pitching staff seems well-prepared for the challenges of the postseason.

Conclusion

As the Astros and Guardians continue their battle, the key storyline remains Justin Verlander’s quest to return to form. Both teams are fine-tuning their rosters for the playoffs, and the decisions made in this series could shape their postseason success. For Verlander, this may be a last chance to prove he belongs in the Astros’ rotation come October. For Cleveland, ensuring pitchers like Ben Lively remain sharp will be critical as they aim for a deep playoff run.

In a game with high stakes and postseason implications, all eyes will be on the pitchers. For both the Astros and Guardians, the outcome of Saturday’s clash could significantly impact their playoff strategies.