Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions September 28th 2024

Royals look to steady ship for postseason; Braves not there yet

From Truist Park in Atlanta, we have the Royals and Braves facing off in an interleague matchup. Saturday’s forecast in Atlanta calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the mid-70s. First pitch is at 7:20 PM ET.

Reynaldo Lopez is starting for the Braves, who are 87-71 and they have won four straight. The Royals are +129 on the money line, and they will start Seth Lugo. Kansas City is 85-75, and they are 3rd in the AL Central. Lopez and the Braves are favored at -154, and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs. BSKC will be televising Saturday’s game.

Kansas City vs. Atlanta Key Information

• Teams: Royals at Braves
• Where: Truist Park Atlanta
• Date: Saturday, September 28th
• Betting Odds ATL -154 | KC +129 O/U 7.5

The Royals Can Win If…

Seth Lugo will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing as he gets the start for the Royals today. The right-hander faced off against the Giants in his last start, where he took the loss, giving up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that outing, he had picked up the win in two straight starts. Lugo’s record for the season is 16-9, and he has an ERA of 3.03. Opposing batters are hitting .227 this season off Lugo. He has made 32 starts, one of which was a complete game, and has 22 quality starts this year.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been a huge bright spot for the Royals this season, as he is hitting .332 with a league-leading 109 RBIs and has also gone deep 32 times, which is 10th in the MLB. Salvador Perez is also having a strong season, batting .271 with 27 homers. However, Perez is just 2/14 in his last five games, with one home run and one RBI.

Overall, the Royals are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .249, which is 7th in the league, and are the 2nd hardest team to strike out against this season.

• The Royals are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Royals are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Kansas City has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Royals have an average of 2.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Royals are 6-4
• Looking back across the Royals last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Kansas City has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Royals have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

The Braves Can Win If…

Right-hander Reynaldo López gets the start for the Braves today and comes into the game with a record of 8-5 and an ERA of 2.03. So far, he has made 24 starts and 13 of them have been quality starts. Lopez’s ERA is 1.83 at home compared to 2.12 on the road. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going just one inning and not giving up a run. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Lopez’s WHIP for the season is 1.15, and opponents are batting .219 off him this year.

As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Atlanta’s offense has been good at hitting home runs this season, as they are 3rd in the league in that category. The Braves’ team batting average of .243 is 9th in the league, and they have the 5th best isolated power figure in the league.

Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves’ top hitter this season, batting .308 with 39 homers and 102 RBIs. He is also on a 9-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 18/40 with five homers. Matt Olson is also a significant power threat in the lineup, as he has 29 homers this season and is batting .245.

• The Braves are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Braves are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Atlanta has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Braves have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Braves are 5-5
• Looking back across the Braves last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Atlanta has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Braves have averaged 5.6 runs per game on offense

The Lean

There should be no shortage of offense in today’s Royals and Braves matchup, and not only are we leaning towards the Braves picking up the win, but we like the over as well. The Braves have the 2nd highest projected home run total, and Reynaldo López has the 4th best strikeout projection among today’s starters.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

The Kansas City Royals are preparing for their first postseason appearance since winning the 2015 World Series. However, their recent form has raised concerns, as the Royals (85-75) have lost eight of their last 11 games, dampening the excitement around their playoff return.

As they continue their three-game series against the Atlanta Braves (87-71) on Saturday night, the Royals will aim to turn things around and build momentum before the playoffs. The Braves, meanwhile, are fighting for their postseason lives, tied in the National League wild-card race with the New York Mets (87-71) and Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72). This game is crucial for both teams for vastly different reasons.

Royals Clinch Playoff Spot Despite Struggles

Kansas City’s 3-0 loss to Atlanta in the series opener on Friday was another disappointing outing. The Royals managed just three hits—two of them doubles from Michael Massey—failing to generate any offense against Braves’ ace Max Fried. Despite this loss, the Royals punched their ticket to the playoffs after the Minnesota Twins lost 7-2 to the Baltimore Orioles later that evening.

“We’re not too proud. You got to get in somehow, right?” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said after clinching the postseason spot. “We wanted to take care of it ourselves, but we got beat. There was nothing you can say about that.”

While the Royals have secured their postseason berth, their recent form is troubling. A team looking to make a deep playoff run cannot afford to enter the postseason on a cold streak. The challenge for Kansas City now is regaining confidence and rhythm before the playoffs begin.

Braves Stay Hot as Wild-Card Race Heats Up

On the other side, the Braves have been red-hot, winning four games in a row to stay in the wild-card race. Their victory on Friday came on the back of an outstanding performance from Max Fried, who dominated the Royals’ lineup with 8 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out nine. Sean Murphy provided the offensive spark with a two-run homer in the fourth inning, while Marcell Ozuna added an insurance run in the eighth after a throwing error by Royals catcher Salvador Perez.

Fried’s performance exemplified the Braves’ determination to keep their postseason hopes alive. “We had to win this game, and I just left everything out there,” Fried said. His ability to deliver in high-pressure situations could be crucial as Atlanta fights for a playoff spot.

With the Mets losing to the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres defeating the Diamondbacks, the Braves now find themselves locked in a three-way tie for the final wild-card spot. Every game matters from here on out, making Saturday’s contest against Kansas City even more critical.

Key Players to Watch

• Michael Massey (Royals): Despite Kansas City’s struggles, Massey has been one of the few bright spots, contributing two doubles in Friday’s game. His ability to generate offense will be vital as the Royals look to rebound.
• Max Fried (Braves): Fried’s near-complete-game shutout performance was the highlight of Friday’s game. With 8 2/3 innings of three-hit ball and nine strikeouts, he continues to be a rock in the Braves’ rotation as they push for the postseason.
• Sean Murphy (Braves): Murphy’s two-run homer in Friday’s game underscores his importance to the Braves’ offense. With the team in a tight wild-card race, timely hits like these will be key in the coming days.
• Marcell Ozuna (Braves): Though he went 0-for-3 on Friday, Ozuna has been a standout player recently, hitting 13-for-28 with two home runs, four RBIs, and six runs over the past seven games. His form will be essential as the Braves look to continue their winning streak.

Pitching Matchup: Seth Lugo vs. Reynaldo Lopez

Seth Lugo (Royals): Lugo (16-9, 3.03 ERA) will make his career-high 33rd start on Saturday, coming off a hard-luck loss despite an impressive outing against the San Francisco Giants. Lugo pitched seven innings, allowing just two runs on three hits while retiring 16 straight batters at one point in a 2-0 defeat. His season has been solid, but with a 5-5 record and a 3.79 ERA in 28 career appearances against Atlanta, Lugo faces a challenging opponent in the Braves.

Reynaldo Lopez (Braves): All-Star right-hander Reynaldo Lopez (8-5, 2.03 ERA) will be activated from the injured list to start Saturday’s game after recovering from right shoulder inflammation. Lopez has been sidelined for a stretch but declared himself fit to return after his second side session on Thursday. While Lopez’s career numbers against Kansas City (5.24 ERA in 26 appearances) aren’t stellar, his return could give the Braves a needed boost in their rotation during the final stretch of the season.

The Stakes for Both Teams

For Kansas City, the immediate task is to reverse their recent slump and enter the postseason with momentum. The Royals have the talent to compete, but their recent form raises doubts about their ability to perform under pressure. Can they regain their winning ways in time for the playoffs?

For the Braves, every game is a must-win as they battle for the last wild-card spot in the National League. With teams like the Mets and Diamondbacks equally desperate for wins, Atlanta must continue its current form to keep pace in the playoff race.

Conclusion

Saturday’s game between the Kansas City Royals and the Atlanta Braves has high stakes for both teams. The Royals are looking to steady the ship as they head toward the postseason, while the Braves are fighting tooth and nail to secure a wild-card spot. Both teams have key players to watch and important storylines unfolding, making this game a pivotal moment in their seasons.

Whether the Royals can regain momentum or the Braves can continue their late-season surge remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: this game could be a defining moment for both teams.