Milwaukee Brewers vs Ny Mets Picks and Predictions September 28th 2024

With focus on playoffs, Mets look to break Brewers’ spell

Jose Quintana is starting for the Mets, as they are on a two-game losing streak and their record is 87-71. The Brewers are starting Jared Koenig, and they are 92-68 overall and they have won two straight. Milwaukee is leading the NL Central, while the Mets are 2nd in the NL East.

FOX will be televising this one, and the money line odds have the Brewers at -121 compared to the Mets at +102. The over/under line is at 8 runs, and the game is set to get underway at 7:15 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI.

New York vs. Milwaukee Key Information

• Teams: Mets at Brewers
• Where: American Family Field Milwaukee
• Date: Saturday, September 28th
• Betting Odds MIL -121 | NYM +102 O/U 8

The Mets Can Win If…

Jose Quintana gets the start for the Mets today and comes into the game with a record of 10-9 and an ERA of 3.74. He has made 30 starts this season and has pitched well recently, picking up the win in each of his last three outings. In his most recent start, Quintana went seven innings and didn’t give up a run. Looking back over his last three outings, he has only given up a total of two earned runs. This season, he has a total of 12 quality starts and is averaging 6.83 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Quintana has allowed 22 homers and is averaging 3.31 walks per nine innings.

Over the past seven games, Brandon Nimmo has struggled for the Mets, going 6/29 with three homers. However, he has scored seven runs over that stretch. Jose Iglesias has been hot of late, going 15/33 in his last eight games and is currently on an 18-game hitting streak. Mark Vientos and Luisangel Acuña have also been swinging the bat well, as both have three homers in their last eight games.

As a team, the Mets are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game and are also 5th in the league in homers. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have been the team’s top power threats this season, with 34 and 31 homers, respectively. Alonso’s 88 RBIs are the best mark on the team, while Lindor is 3rd at 86.

• The Mets are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 6-4 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 3.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 5-5
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 3.9 runs per game on offense

The Brewers Can Win If…

Jared Koenig is getting the start for the Brewers today and has made 54 appearances out of the bullpen this season. He has a record of 9-4 and an ERA of 2.51. Koenig’s WHIP for the season is 1.25, and opponents are batting .221 off him this year. In his last outing, Koenig went one inning out of the bullpen, giving up one earned run on one hit. Before that outing, he had picked up the win in two straight appearances. Koenig has allowed at least one earned run in three of his last five outings.

For the season, the Brewers are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in batting average and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league. As a team, they are 13th in home runs and have the 10th best OPS in the league.

Willy Adames has been a big run producer for the Brewers this season, as his 111 RBIs are 4th in the league and lead the team. He also leads the team with 32 homers. William Contreras is batting .282 for the season and has 92 RBIs, which is 2nd on the team. Rhys Hoskins is just batting .215 this season but is 2nd on the team with 26 homers. He is also on a three-game hitting streak.

• The Brewers are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 6.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Brewers are 6-4
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Milwaukee has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 5.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Our lean for a money-line pick in this Mets vs. Brewers matchup is to take the Mets to win. And with the way we are leaning on the over/under line, we would be leaning toward taking the over. This game has the highest projected hits total and 2nd highest combined strikeouts total. Between the two starters, we have Jared Koenig as the better strikeout option.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

As the National League wild-card race heats up, the New York Mets will look to veteran right-hander José Quintana to lead them to victory against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday. The Mets are in a fierce battle for playoff positioning, and they must overcome a significant challenge in the form of the Brewers, a team that has historically dominated their head-to-head matchups.

Brewers Secure Playoff Spot, Mets Fight for Wild Card

The Milwaukee Brewers (92-68) have already clinched the third seed in the playoffs and are preparing to host a wild-card series. On the other hand, the Mets (87-71) are locked in a tight competition for one of the remaining wild-card spots, tied with the Atlanta Braves (87-71) after both teams faced losses on Friday. The Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72) also remain in the mix, creating a three-team race for the final two spots.

Milwaukee delivered another blow to the Mets’ playoff hopes with an 8-4 victory on Friday, powered by a grand slam from Rhys Hoskins and a season-high six stolen bases. Brice Turang swiped three bags, bringing his season total to 50, which highlights the Brewers’ aggressive strategy on the basepaths.

Quintana on the Mound: Mets’ Best Shot at Redemption

José Quintana (10-9, 3.74 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, coming off a brilliant stretch where he has not allowed a run in his last 20 2/3 innings. Quintana is 3-0 in September and hasn’t lost a game since August 20, making him a critical factor in the Mets’ postseason push. His most recent outing, a dominant seven-inning performance in a 10-0 win over the Washington Nationals, saw him give up only two hits while striking out four batters.

Historically, Quintana has been strong against Milwaukee, boasting a 9-6 record with a 2.94 ERA in 22 career appearances. However, it’s been four years since he last secured a victory over the Brewers, adding extra intrigue to this matchup.

Brewers’ Dominance: Mets Struggle in Head-to-Head Matchups

The Brewers have been a thorn in the Mets’ side, winning 24 of their last 32 meetings, including 11 of the last 12 and six straight. This dominance extends into both regular season and postseason scenarios, where Milwaukee’s tactical advantage—particularly on the basepaths—has exploited New York’s vulnerabilities.

Brewers manager Pat Murphy recognizes the challenge ahead despite their strong track record against the Mets. “Look at the talent they have over there,” Murphy said of the Mets. “So, we’ll have our work cut out for us the next two days, but we just need to keep playing our game.”

Injury Concerns for Both Teams

Both teams are grappling with injuries that could impact the rest of their season. The Mets suffered a setback when catcher Francisco Alvarez left Friday’s game in the seventh inning due to back spasms. Although manager Carlos Mendoza sounded cautiously optimistic about Alvarez’s condition, his absence would be a significant blow to the Mets’ lineup, as Alvarez has been a key contributor both behind the plate and at bat.

Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick exited in the third inning after crashing into the wall in foul territory, suffering a left hip injury. Initial X-rays were inconclusive, and he is scheduled for an MRI, leaving his status uncertain. With the Brewers already secure in their playoff spot, they may opt to rest Frelick to ensure his availability for the postseason.

Brewers’ Pitcher Jared Koenig Faces Redemption

Milwaukee will counter Quintana with left-hander Jared Koenig (9-4, 2.51 ERA). Koenig has been effective this season, but his lone career start against the Mets was a forgettable one. In that outing, he gave up six runs on eight hits over three innings, a performance that the Mets will look to exploit again as they fight for a wild-card spot.

Koenig’s recent form, however, suggests that the Mets shouldn’t take him lightly. He has shown flashes of brilliance this season and will aim to shut down the Mets’ offense, which has been inconsistent as of late.

Wild-Card Race Comes Down to the Wire

The Mets are in the thick of one of the most competitive wild-card races in recent history. The outcome of their remaining games, including this series against the Brewers and the make-up doubleheader against Atlanta on Monday, will determine their postseason fate. With Arizona in a virtual tie for the wild-card spots and the Braves hot on their heels, the Mets cannot afford any more slip-ups.

For the Brewers, these final games are about fine-tuning their game before the postseason begins. Their strong play in recent weeks, combined with their dominance over the Mets, makes them a formidable opponent even as they prepare to host the wild-card series next week.

Quintana vs. Koenig: A Key Matchup in the Playoff Race

Saturday’s game is pivotal, especially for the Mets, who will rely heavily on José Quintana’s stellar form. If Quintana can replicate his recent performances, the Mets will have a chance to finally break the Brewers’ spell and keep their wild-card hopes alive. Conversely, if Koenig can neutralize the Mets’ offense and the Brewers continue their aggressive base-running strategy, the Mets could find themselves on the outside looking in as the playoff race reaches its climax.

Conclusion: Mets’ Playoff Fate in the Balance

The Mets are fighting for their postseason lives, and Saturday’s game against the Brewers is a must-win. While Quintana offers them their best chance at victory, they will need to overcome the mental and physical hurdles posed by a Brewers team that has dominated them for years. The wild-card race is as tight as ever, and with only a handful of games left, every inning counts.

If the Mets can break through, they will inch closer to securing a playoff spot. If not, their season could slip away under the pressure of a team that has had their number for far too long.