Ny Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Predictions September 29th 2024

From Yankee Stadium in New York, we have the Pirates and Yankees facing off in an interleague matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 3:05 PM ET, and YES will be televising the game.

The Yankees are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -193 compared to the Pirates at +162. Sunday’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and Clarke Schmidt is starting for the Yankees, while the Pirates are going with Bailey Falter. New York comes in with a record of 93-68, while the Pirates are 76-85.

Pittsburgh vs. New York Key Information

• Teams: Pirates at Yankees
• Where: Yankee Stadium New York
• Date: Sunday, September 29th
• Betting Odds NYY -193 | PIT +162 O/U 8.5

The Pirates Can Win If…

Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pirates today and comes in with a record of 8-9 and an ERA of 4.26. Looking at his overall numbers, Falter has made 27 starts and eight of them have been quality starts. In his 27 appearances, Falter has a WHIP of 1.26 and is averaging 6.27 strikeouts per nine innings. The left-hander has been much better at home this season, coming in with a record of 5-4 and an ERA of 4.65. On the road, his record is 3-5 with a 5.25 ERA.

Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ most consistent hitter this season, leading the team with a .276 batting average and 24 home runs. His 88 RBIs are also the best on the team. Reynolds has gone just 5/22 in his last six games, but he does have two homers in that stretch. Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz are also among the Pirates’ home run leaders, with 21 homers apiece.

Over the Pirates’ last six games, Billy Cook and Nick Gonzales have both gone deep twice, with Cook batting .278 and Gonzales hitting .286. Nick Yorke has also gone deep twice in this stretch but has only three hits in his last 20 at-bats. Reynolds and Gonzales are both on three-game hitting streaks.

• The Pirates are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Pirates are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Pirates have an average of 3.8 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Pirates are 4-6
• Looking back across the Pirates last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Pittsburgh has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Pirates have averaged 2.8 runs per game on offense

The Yankees Can Win If…

Clarke Schmidt will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Orioles, as he gets the start for the Yankees today. In that outing, he gave up three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work, taking the loss. Looking back over his last three starts, Schmidt has finished with a no-decision, a loss, and a loss. The right-hander has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 5-5 to go along with a 2.54 ERA. Opponents have a batting average of .221 vs. Schmidt this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.74 strikeouts and 2.88 walks.

So far this season, the Yankees have been the league’s best home run-hitting team and are also 3rd in the league in runs per game at 5. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 8th in the league, and have the top on-base percentage in the league. New York has been especially good at drawing walks this season and have the league’s 3rd best slugging percentage.

Heading into the game, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are the Yankees’ top two home run hitters, with Judge leading the league with 58 homers and Soto’s 41 homers being the 4th most in the MLB. Judge is also batting .322 for the season and has 144 RBIs, which is also the best in the league. Over his last eight games, Judge has gone 9/26 with five homers.

• The Yankees are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Yankees are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Yankees have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Yankees are 7-3
• Looking back across the Yankees last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
• New York has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Yankees have averaged 4.8 runs per game on offense

Anthony Rizzo’s Playoff Status Unclear as Yanks, Pirates Close Regular Season

The New York Yankees received an unwanted reminder on Saturday of how seemingly meaningless late-season games can suddenly become crucial for all the wrong reasons. As they gear up for the postseason, the Yankees face uncertainty regarding the availability of veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who suffered a significant hand injury during Saturday’s loss.

The Yankees will be without Rizzo on Sunday afternoon when they complete their regular season against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates. Both teams have experienced ups and downs, but for the Yankees, the outcome of the finale might matter less compared to the potential long-term implications of Rizzo’s injury as they prepare for playoff action.

Yankees Dealing with Anthony Rizzo’s Injury

The Yankees’ hopes of entering the postseason at full strength were dealt a serious blow when Rizzo was struck on the right hand in the seventh inning of Saturday’s 9-4 loss. Ryan Borucki’s 88-mph slider caused fractures of the fourth and fifth fingers on Rizzo’s right hand. Though he initially remained in the game, Rizzo was replaced at first base by Oswaldo Cabrera in the eighth inning before X-rays confirmed the fractures.

The uncertainty surrounding Rizzo’s status looms large for the Yankees, who are set to begin American League Division Series play on Oct. 5. Manager Aaron Boone indicated that it was too early to determine if Rizzo would be ready for the postseason.

This injury caps a difficult season for Rizzo, who has struggled offensively, setting career-lows for homers (eight), RBIs (35), and OPS (.633). Earlier in the season, Rizzo missed significant time with a broken right forearm, and during his absence, the Yankees went 29-33, underlining his importance to the team’s defense and offensive depth.

The Yankees will need to rely on options such as Ben Rice and DJ LeMahieu at first base if Rizzo cannot play in the postseason. However, Rice was optioned to Triple-A in early September, and LeMahieu is currently on the injured list with a right hip impingement. This leaves Boone and the Yankees with difficult decisions ahead of the postseason, potentially involving players stepping into unfamiliar roles to cover for Rizzo.

Final Regular-Season Game: Schmidt vs. Falter

The Yankees (93-68) clinched the American League’s top overall seed despite their loss on Saturday, thanks to the Cleveland Guardians falling to the Houston Astros. This means the Yankees will enjoy home-field advantage through the AL playoffs. However, they will still want to wrap up their regular season on a positive note and head into October with momentum.

On the mound for the Yankees will be right-hander Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.55 ERA), who has been a bright spot in their pitching rotation. Schmidt took the loss in his most recent start on Tuesday, giving up three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. Schmidt has yet to face the Pirates in his career.

Bailey Falter (8-9, 4.26 ERA) is expected to start for the Pirates. Falter also took a loss in his previous outing, allowing four runs over five innings in the Pirates’ 7-2 defeat against the Milwaukee Brewers. Like Schmidt, Falter has no previous experience against the Yankees, adding an element of unpredictability to Sunday’s matchup.

Pirates Building Momentum for the Future

The Pirates (76-85) have played the role of spoiler in this series, securing a series win with Saturday’s impressive 9-4 victory, which included five home runs. Despite being out of playoff contention, the Pirates have shown glimpses of their potential, particularly through the contributions of young players.

Rookies Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, and Mike Burrows have delivered solid performances this weekend. Skenes, a contender for National League Rookie of the Year, ended his season on a high note with two perfect innings, while Burrows, making his MLB debut, earned the win after allowing two runs (one earned) over 3 1/3 innings. Burrows returned from Tommy John surgery earlier this year, posting a 4.06 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings for Triple-A Indianapolis before his promotion.

Manager Derek Shelton highlighted Burrows as a key part of the Pirates’ pitching depth.

The Pirates will be looking to continue their strong finish to the season with Falter on the mound as they attempt to sweep the Yankees and enter the offseason with optimism for the future.

Final Thoughts: What’s at Stake

The final game of the season represents different opportunities for the two teams. For the Yankees, it is a chance to conclude the regular season on a winning note and, more importantly, assess their roster for the postseason in light of Anthony Rizzo’s injury. Rizzo’s health will be a major storyline in the coming days as the Yankees prepare for a deep playoff run.

For the Pirates, the goal is to complete a sweep of the division champions and build on the progress shown by their young players. Strong performances from rookies like Skenes and Burrows are encouraging signs that the Pirates are moving in the right direction, even if a postseason berth remains out of reach.

As Clarke Schmidt and Bailey Falter take the mound, the Yankees and Pirates will each be playing for pride and purpose. The Yankees hope to fine-tune their approach before their playoff opener, while the Pirates look to leave a lasting impression as they continue to develop their future core.

The Lean

Look for the Yankees to come out on top in today’s matchup vs. the Pirates, and we are leaning towards taking them on the money line. As for how we would play the over/under line, we are leaning towards the over, as this is projected to be the 3rd lowest-scoring game of today’s slate, and this one has the 5th lowest home run projection. Clarke Schmidt is our 9th ranked starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts, and Bailey Falter is 3rd worst.