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At 3:05 PM from Fenway Park in Boston, we have an AL East matchup between the Rays and Red Sox. Tampa Bay is currently on a two-game winning streak and is 80-81 overall, while the Red Sox have lost three straight and are 80-81.
The money line odds have the Rays at -115 compared to the Red Sox at -105, and the over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs. Sunday’s starting pitching matchup is Ryan Pepiot for the Rays and Quinn Priester for the Red Sox. Boston is currently 4th in the AL East, while the Rays are 3rd.
Tampa Bay vs. Boston Key Information
- Teams: Rays at Red Sox
- Where: Fenway Park Boston
- Date: Sunday, September 29th
- Betting Odds TB -115 | BOS -105 O/U 8.5
The Rays Can Win If…
Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with a 3.64 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .205 this season off Pepiot, and he has a WHIP of 1.14. Looking back at his last outing, Pepiot took the loss, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had turned in three straight solid outings, giving up two earned runs or fewer in each. Pepiot’s ERA on the road is 4.03 compared to 4.5 at home.
As a team, the Rays are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They also have one of the worst home run totals in the league and are batting just .230 as a team. Tampa Bay’s team OPS of .669 is also one of the worst marks in the league. However, they do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late. Brandon Lowe has gone 8/29 in his last seven games, including two homers, and has scored five runs.
Christopher Morel and Brandon Lowe are tied for the team lead in home runs, but both players are hitting below .250 for the season. Morel is batting just .194, while Lowe is at .244. Yandy Diaz has been the Rays’ best hitter this season, batting .281 with a team-high 65 RBIs.
- The Rays are 6-4 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Rays are 4-1 vs. the run line.
- Tampa Bay has an over/under record of 1-8-1 in their last ten games.
- The Rays have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten road games, the Rays are 4-6
- Looking back across the Rays last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
- Tampa Bay has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Rays have averaged 2.5 runs per game on offense
The Red Sox Can Win If…
Right-hander Quinn Priester is getting the start for the Red Sox today and will be looking to rebound from his last outing out of the bullpen. Against the Diamondbacks on July 27th, he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in four innings of work. In his 10 appearances, Priester has a record of 2-6 and an ERA of 5.04. Looking at his overall numbers, Priester has a WHIP of 1.46 and has allowed a total of seven homers. Opposing batters are hitting .277 off Priester this season. Before his rough outing against the Diamondbacks, he had won two straight outings.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .252, which is the 5th best mark in the MLB. Boston’s team OPS of .742 is also 7th in the league, and their team BABIP of .31 is the best in the league.
Over his last eight games, Jarren Duran is hitting .303 and has scored six runs. For the season, he is batting .285 and is 2nd on the team with 75 RBIs. Rafael Devers has been the Red Sox’s top power threat this season, with 28 homers (2nd on the team) and 83 RBIs (1st on the team). Tyler O’Neill has also been a big power threat, as his 31 homers is the best mark on the team.
- The Red Sox are 5-5 in their last ten games.
- Over their last five games, the Red Sox are 2-3 vs. the run line.
- Boston has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
- The Red Sox have an average of 2.8 runs per game over their last five games.
- Across their last ten home games, the Red Sox are 4-6
- Looking back across the Red Sox last five games as the favorite, they are 1-4
- Boston has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
- In their ten most recent road games, the Red Sox have averaged 3.0 runs per game on offense
Rays, Red Sox Playing for Pride in Season Finale
The Tampa Bay Rays will aim to complete a three-game sweep as they face the Boston Red Sox in their regular season finale on Sunday. With both teams holding identical records of 80-81, the outcome of this game will decide who finishes third in the American League East. For both teams, it’s about ending a disappointing season on a positive note.
Rays Eyeing Sweep and Avoiding Losing Season
After taking the first two games of the series, including a 7-2 win on Saturday, the Rays are looking to avoid their first losing season since 2017. It’s been a roller-coaster year, but a strong performance on Sunday could ensure a .500 finish and provide some solace heading into the offseason.
Junior Caminero was the star on Saturday, blasting a two-run homer off Boston starter Kutter Crawford, who allowed his 34th home run of the season—the most by any major league pitcher this year. Despite that, Boston manager Alex Cora defended Crawford’s overall performance this season.
“If you look at his season overall, it was a solid one,” Cora said. “This is a kid … he understands how to pitch. Uses both sides of the plate. He can go up, he can go down. He’s a guy we expect him to keep getting better. He’s been good for us.”
The Rays also benefitted from a continued strong showing by Drew Rasmussen, who pitched two scoreless innings on Saturday. Returning from elbow surgery, Rasmussen ends the year with an impressive 2.83 ERA over 28 2/3 innings as a reliever.
“It wasn’t perfect (Saturday), but you just look back over where I’ve been over the last 18 months or so, and I’m truly just blessed to have the opportunity to be back playing on the field,” Rasmussen said. “Pretty good year, and we’re excited about things moving forward.”
Probable Starters: Ryan Pepiot vs. Quinn Priester
The Rays will start Ryan Pepiot (8-7, 3.64 ERA), who has been consistent throughout the season. Despite taking the loss in a 2-1 game against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday, Pepiot allowed just two runs on three hits over five innings, striking out six and walking four. Impressively, Pepiot has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his past 13 starts.
Pepiot has limited experience against the Red Sox but has done well, recording 15 strikeouts over 10 innings in two career starts against Boston with a 3.60 ERA.
The Red Sox will counter with Quinn Priester (2-6, 5.04 ERA), who was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in July. This will be Priester’s first start for Boston after spending time with Triple-A Worcester to work on his mechanics.
Priester went 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in nine starts for Worcester and 4-2 with a 4.38 ERA overall in 16 Triple-A starts this year. The right-hander has focused on mechanical adjustments that have helped improve his pitches, which he attributes to a rise in confidence.
“Ultimately making some mechanical adjustments that felt really natural and led to better performance of all my pitches,” Priester said. “And feeling that and seeing that just let the confidence build up to where it should be.”
Red Sox Struggling Down the Stretch
For the Red Sox, it has been a tale of two halves this season. Boston was 10 games over .500 at the All-Star break but has struggled since, posting a 27-38 record. The team’s home struggles continued, with a 37-43 record at Fenway Park, being outscored by 33 runs in those games.
Saturday’s 7-2 loss marked the Red Sox’s third straight defeat, during which they’ve scored a combined four runs. Manager Alex Cora, while optimistic about some of his players’ individual performances, knows the team needs a more complete approach if they are to close out the year on a positive note.
Key Players to Watch
Junior Caminero (Rays)
Caminero showcased his power on Saturday with a two-run shot and will look to be a difference-maker again in the season finale.
Drew Rasmussen (Rays)
The reliever, who has battled back from elbow surgery, has been steady, and he’ll aim to end his season on a high note after a recent run of solid outings.
Kutter Crawford (Red Sox)
Despite leading the league in home runs allowed, Crawford has shown moments of promise. He will look to take positives from this season as the Red Sox head into the offseason.
Quinn Priester (Red Sox)
In his first start for Boston, Priester hopes to show that he can be a part of the starting rotation next season by delivering a strong performance on Sunday.
Pride and Positioning at Stake
The outcome of Sunday’s game will determine who finishes third in the American League East, with both teams tied at 80-81. For Tampa Bay, avoiding a losing record is a significant incentive, especially given their consistent performance in recent years. For Boston, a victory would at least allow them to end the year with some pride after a challenging second half.
Both teams will be playing for pride, and with a chance to finish the year on a high note, expect a competitive game as these AL East rivals close out their 2024 campaigns.
The Lean
For a money-line pick, our lean would be to take the Red Sox to come out on top at home. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is our 2nd lowest projected scoring game of the day, but we still have this one finishing with the 8th most strikeouts. Between the two starters, we have Quinn Priester finishing with the 2nd fewest strikeouts among today’s starters.
