Chi. Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Predictions September 29th 2024

From Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have the Reds and Cubs facing off in an NL Central matchup. This one is getting started at 3:20 PM ET, and BSOH is carrying it on TV.

The Cubs are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at +104 compared to the Reds at -124. Today’s over/under line is at 7 runs, and the forecast calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the upper 60s. Hunter Greene is starting for the Reds, and the Cubs are starting Caleb Kilian. Cincinnati is 5th in the NL Central, while the Cubs are on a two-game winning streak and are 2nd overall.

Cincinnati vs. Chicago Key Information

• Teams: Reds at Cubs
• Where: Wrigley Field Chicago
• Date: Sunday, September 29th
• Betting Odds CIN -124 | CHC +104 O/U 7

The Reds Can Win If…

Hunter Greene gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 9-5 with an ERA of 2.83. Greene’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.02. In his 25 starts, he has turned in 13 quality starts and is averaging 10.21 strikeouts per nine innings. Greene’s last outing came on September 22nd, where he took the loss, going three innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ most consistent hitters this season, as he is batting .259 for the season and has gone 11/38 in his last nine games. During this stretch, he has one home run and five RBIs. De La Cruz’s 25 home runs this season are the most on the team, and he is 2nd on the team in RBIs. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also near the top of the team’s home run list, but both players are batting below .230 for the season.

Over his last two games, Blake Dunn has gone 2/5 with three runs scored and a home run. For the season, Dunn is batting just .212. Tyler Stephenson has six RBIs in his last eight games, but he has just one hit in his last nine games. Nick Martini is on a three-game hitting streak.

• The Reds are 3-7 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Reds are 1-4 vs. the run line.
• Cincinnati has an over/under record of 3-7 in their last ten games.
• The Reds have an average of 0.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Reds are 3-7
• Looking back across the Reds last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Cincinnati has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Reds have averaged 2.9 runs per game on offense

The Cubs Can Win If…

Caleb Kilian will be making his first start of the season for the Cubs, and he will be taking on the Reds at home. Kilian came out of the bullpen in his first appearance of the season and took the loss against the Phillies. In that outing, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up 6 runs, 5 of which were earned. Kilian did strike out 8 batters, but he did give up 2 home runs.

Seiya Suzuki has been one of the Cubs’ top power threats this season, as he is 2nd on the team with 21 homers and comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak. Overall, Suzuki is batting .283, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. Ian Happ has also been a key run producer for the Cubs, as he leads the team with 86 RBIs and is also 1st on the team with 25 homers.

Nico Hoerner has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/32 in his last nine games with two homers and seven runs scored. For the season, he is batting .274 and is 4th on the team with 48 RBIs. Michael Busch and Seiya Suzuki are also near the top of the Cubs’ home run leaderboard, with both players having gone deep 21 times this season.

• The Cubs are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Cubs are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Chicago has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
• The Cubs have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Cubs are 5-5
• Looking back across the Cubs last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Chicago has gone 0-3 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Cubs have averaged 7.2 runs per game on offense

Cubs, Reds Close Season After Falling Short of Expectations

Two teams that failed to live up to preseason expectations will close out their seasons on Sunday afternoon, as the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds meet in the finale of a three-game series at Wrigley Field. Both clubs, initially hopeful for playoff contention, now face an offseason of assessing and addressing the shortcomings that kept them from the postseason.

A Season of Missed Opportunities

The Chicago Cubs (83-78) entered the season with high hopes, bolstered by a roster ranked 10th in the majors by Baseball America in their annual power rankings. Many analysts and fans pegged them as a favorite to win the National League Central, especially after finishing just one game short of a wild-card berth last season. Despite being nine games over .500 since the All-Star break, the Cubs never closed to within three games of the final wild-card spot in the second half.

Manager Craig Counsell acknowledged the difficulty of falling short of their goal but expressed a commitment to making the necessary changes.

On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds (76-85) started the season with the 12th rank by Baseball America but will end up among the 13 teams with a .500 record or worse. Coming off a season where they finished third in the NL Central and above .500, the Reds aimed for continued growth but faltered down the stretch.

The Reds find themselves in the midst of a five-game losing streak, currently riding a 19-inning scoreless streak. They have struggled offensively in the final weeks, and without a final push, they risk finishing last in the division.

Managerial Changes and Challenges

Cincinnati’s struggles ultimately led to a significant change in leadership, with the team firing manager David Bell last Sunday, just five games before the end of the season. The Reds had brought back much of their core from the previous year, but an eight-game losing streak from April 30 to May 9 derailed their chances early, and the team could not recover.

Hunter Greene, the young ace for the Reds, pointed out that both fundamental issues and injuries have played a role in their underwhelming season.

As Cincinnati looks to rebuild, Greene stressed the importance of having a new manager who can command respect and hold players accountable.

Sunday’s Pitching Matchup: Hunter Greene vs. Caleb Kilian

The Reds will send Hunter Greene (9-5, 2.83 ERA) to the mound for the final game of the season, where he will seek to notch a double-digit win total for the first time in his three-year MLB career. The 25-year-old made his return from a right elbow injury last Sunday, pitching three innings and allowing one run on two hits in a 2-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. In his career, Greene is 4-1 in six starts against the Cubs, with a 4.54 ERA.

The Cubs, meanwhile, are expected to start right-hander Caleb Kilian (0-1, 7.94 ERA). Kilian, who was recalled from Triple-A Iowa last week, made a relief appearance in which he gave up six runs (five earned) on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings. Sunday’s game will mark his first start of the season and his first career appearance against the Reds.

Key Storylines to Watch

Young Talent and Future Plans

For both the Cubs and the Reds, the final game will be an opportunity to evaluate young players who could play a role next season. Chicago has tested players like Alexander Canario and Pete Crow-Armstrong in recent weeks, while Cincinnati has continued to feature young pitchers like Hunter Greene and Brandon Williamson.

Offseason Decisions

The Cubs and Reds both face critical decisions this offseason. Chicago needs to determine how to improve its bullpen and solidify the rotation behind Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman, while Cincinnati must decide on a managerial hire that will help guide their young roster back into contention.

Pride on the Line

Despite missing out on the playoffs, ending the season on a high note is crucial for morale. A win would allow Chicago to finish five games over .500, offering a small but notable accomplishment for a team that had higher hopes. For the Reds, breaking their losing streak and finishing the year with a win would provide some momentum heading into a long offseason of uncertainty.

A Season to Reflect Upon

Both the Cubs and the Reds will head into the offseason with plenty of questions and some disappointment about what might have been. While they fell short of their respective goals, they have also seen glimpses of promise—be it the steady pitching of Hunter Greene or the flashes of brilliance from emerging Cubs prospects.

As Clarke Schmidt takes the mound against Caleb Kilian, this final game will be a chance for both teams to end on a positive note. The hope is that these disappointments can serve as a foundation for a stronger push next season, with the lessons of 2024 driving improvements for the future.

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The Lean

Our lean for a money line pick would be to take the Cubs to come out on top at home vs. the Reds. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the over, as this is projected to be the 7th highest-scoring game of the day. These teams are also expected to finish with the 8th most hits and 4th fewest strikeouts. Looking at today’s starters, Hunter Greene has the highest strikeout projection, but we still like the Cubs to come out on top in this one.