Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Predictions October 1st 2024

There appears to be a chance of rain in Baltimore on Tuesday, where the Orioles and Royals will face off at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. First pitch is currently scheduled for 4:08 PM ET. ESPN2 is carrying TV coverage for this AL matchup.

Baltimore is favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -159 compared to the Royals at +135. The over/under line is currently at 7 runs, and the Orioles will be looking to extend their three-game win streak. Kansas City is 2nd in the AL Central, while the Orioles are 2nd in the AL East. Cole Ragans is the Royals’ starter, while Corbin Burnes will be on the mound for the Orioles.

Kansas City vs. Baltimore Key Information

Cole Ragans gets the start for the Royals today as he faces the Orioles on the road. He has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 11-9 with an ERA of 3.14. Ragans’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.14, and opponents have a batting average of .206 off the left-hander. In his 32 starts, Ragans has turned in 21 quality starts and is averaging 10.77 strikeouts per nine innings. One of his complete games came this year. Most recently, he went six innings vs. the Nationals, giving up no earned runs on six hits. He finished with six strikeouts in the outing.

So far this season, the Royals are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. At home, they have been even better, putting up 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .248, which is 7th in the league, and are also one of the top home run-hitting teams in the league. However, they are near the bottom of the league in terms of drawing walks.

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Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. have been the team’s top power hitters this season, as Witt Jr. has 32 homers and Perez has 27. Witt Jr. comes into the game with a team-high batting average of .332, while Perez is batting .271. Witt Jr. is also on a three-game hitting streak. Over his last four games, Hunter Renfroe has two homers, but he is just 2/11 in that stretch.

Corbin Burnes will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Yankees, as he gets the start for the Orioles today. In that September 26th start, he took the loss, going 5 innings and giving up 1 earned run. Looking back further, Burnes has been pitching well, as he had won his previous two starts. Against the Tigers on September 20th, he pitched 7 scoreless innings and got the win. Burnes’ overall record is 15-9, and he has an ERA of 2.92. Opposing batters are hitting .210 off Burnes this season.

Not only do the Orioles come into the game with the 2nd most home runs in the league, but they are also one of the top-scoring offenses in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .250, which is 6th in the league, and have the 3rd best slugging percentage in the league. Baltimore’s offense has been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game.

Anthony Santander has been a big power threat for the Orioles this season, as his 44 homers are the 3rd most in the league. He also comes into the game with a team-high 102 RBIs. Gunnar Henderson has also been a big power threat, as his 37 homers are 2nd on the team and 7th in the league. Henderson is batting .281 for the season, and Santander is hitting just .235.

Our projections have this Royals vs. Orioles matchup as a low-scoring game, and with the line sitting at 7 runs, we are leaning towards taking the under. As for how we would play the money line in this one, we are leaning towards the Royals to pick up the win. Kansas City starter Cole Ragans has the 3rd best strikeout projection among today’s starters, and Corbin Burnes has the lowest innings pitched projection among today’s starters.

Orioles Ace Corbin Burnes Ready for October Opener vs. Royals

BALTIMORE — The Baltimore Orioles had October in mind when they acquired right-hander Corbin Burnes back in February. Now, the former Cy Young Award winner is set to lead the team in the postseason after anchoring an injury-hit rotation that helped Baltimore clinch its second consecutive playoff berth.

Burnes Set for Game 1 Start

Burnes will take the mound on Tuesday when the Orioles host the Kansas City Royals in the opener of a best-of-three American League wild-card series.

“It’s an honor,” Burnes said. “To get the ball on Opening Day (and) Game 1 of the postseason, not many guys get to do that in their career. I’ve been fortunate to do it a couple times, and to do it my first year here in Baltimore is special.”

Burnes, 29, became the ace of the Orioles as soon as they traded two prospects to the Milwaukee Brewers for him just before spring training. He went 15-9 with a team-best 2.92 ERA across 32 starts this season, making him the clear choice to start Game 1. Tuesday’s start will be Burnes’ third playoff start and his ninth overall postseason appearance.

Burnes Brings Playoff Experience

Burnes enters the postseason with a 1-1 record and a 2.84 ERA in playoff action. Last season, while with the Brewers, Burnes started Game 1 of the National League wild-card series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing four runs on five hits — including three homers — in a 6-3 loss.

“Postseason baseball is a different monster,” Burnes said. “It’s not always about scoring the most runs. It’s about controlling the momentum.”

Burnes faced Kansas City twice in April, allowing five total runs across 11 1/3 innings, with seven strikeouts and one walk. His solid performance will be key as he faces a Royals team hungry for a postseason victory.

Royals’ Cole Ragans to Make Postseason Debut

Opposing Burnes in Game 1 will be Royals left-hander Cole Ragans, who posted an 11-9 record with a 3.14 ERA during the regular season. Ragans, 26, will be making his postseason debut after a breakout season for Kansas City, highlighted by a stellar 1.08 ERA in September.

Ragans pitched against the Orioles twice in April, shutting them out on one hit over 6 1/3 innings in his first start, but struggling mightily in the second, allowing seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings.

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“I don’t forget the second (start),” Ragans said. “It just wasn’t a good day that day. Everybody’s good in the playoffs, so just prepare the same that I have all season.”

Royals Look to Build a New Legacy

Kansas City is making its first postseason appearance since winning the World Series in 2015. After a dismal 2023 campaign, the Royals turned things around with a 30-win improvement, revitalizing the franchise.

“You want to create something new,” said Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. “In the past, everyone in Kansas City has talked about the (2015 team), and so we want to create our own legacy.”

Witt, 24, won the AL batting title with a .332 average, while also becoming the first-ever shortstop to notch multiple 30-30 seasons, with 32 home runs and 31 stolen bases. Witt is set to make his postseason debut after enduring two consecutive last-place finishes with the Royals.

“It’s an unbelievable opportunity,” Witt said. “Some guys never make the postseason … so you definitely got to make the most of it, but also enjoy each and every day.”