UFC 307 Odds and Predictions

MMA bettors should be amped up for UFC 307, which is prepared to touch down at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah on October 5th, 2024. The Early Prelims roll out at 5:30 pm EST, while the main card fires off at 9:00 pm EST via PPR.

After an awesome run at UFC 306, my MMA betting picks weren’t quite as good for last week’s UFC Fight Night event. I whiffed on the main event and went just 3-3 on the main card.

Batting .500 in MMA is never a bad thing, though, and I went 4-4 when it came to the Prelims. So, not the fight card to write home about, but this was an event that saw eight bouts go the distance, so perhaps luck didn’t fully go our way.

It could have been worse, and of course this week we’ll aim much higher going into UFC 307. The UFC 307 odds are out at the top MMA sportsbooks, so it’s time we break down this event.

UFC 307 Odds

Here are the current odds for UFC 307 at most online betting sites for the main card:

Now this is one heck of a card. It’s another reminder that the UFC leads all the MMA betting promotions out there, and frankly, it’s not even close.

The light heavyweight title belt is on the line, and even though the odds suggest it won’t be close, it features two dangerous veterans of the industry. 

The women’s bantamweight title belt is also up for grabs, while we get superstars like Jose Aldo, Kevin Holland, and Kayla Harrison to round this thing out. The best part? Aside from Pereira and Harrison, the MMA odds are rather appealing across the board.

But, how should you bet on UFC 307? I’ve got your back. Let’s go through each UFC 307 fight, break down the matchup, and see who should come away with the win.

UFC 307 Main Card Predictions

The UFC 307 main card is available via PPV only and will get started at 9:00 pm EST. Here are the latest odds and my UFC 307 pick breakdowns.

Alex Pereira (-460) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+335)

He might be older than fighters sports bettors normally like backing (37), but Alex Pereira has been on a heater. It’s led him to the light heavyweight championship, and he’s now as lethal as anyone in the UFC after twice demolishing Jiri Prochazka.

His resume also includes show-stopping wins over Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland, while he even earned a tough win against Jan Blachowicz last year.

Nobody is unstoppable, but Pereira feels pretty close to it at the moment. He’s older than his opponent, but he also has longer reach and is the superior striker. His explosiveness and dominance make him incredibly tough to bet against here.

Obviously age is just a number, but Pereira being 37 years old is one reason to give Rountree and his +335 UFC 307 betting odds a cursory glance. For what it’s worth, Rountree is surprisingly the more experienced fighter and he’s just as dangerous (9 KOs).

Rountree is a massive underdog, but his recent form is encouraging. He has taken out some big names over the past year, as he TKO’d both Anthony Smith and Chris Daukaus. He outlasted Dustin Jacoby in 2022 as well.

The resume is solid and Rountree is live for the upset, but the odds and body of work greatly favor Pereira. You’re probably not betting on him straight up, so I think the best plays are to take a shot on Rountree, bet on a Pereira KO win, or simply bet on this bout to finish inside the distance.

That said, there is one winner pick for me here.

Bet: Alex Pereira -460

Raquel Pennington (-165) vs. Julianna Pena (+135)

The other title fight on the main card is a battle between two hard-nosed women, as Raquel Pennington doesn’t seem too keen on relinquishing her bantamweight title belt anytime soon.

She’s been ablaze, having out-classed the likes of Mayra Bueno Silva, Ketlen Vierira, and Aspen Ladd in recent fights. She has just one early stoppage victory in her last 10 bouts, but she has been grinding opponents to a pulp.

Pennington has eight losses on her ledger, but her recent form is why you might want to back her. She’s rattled off six straight wins, and her only three losses since 2018 have come against respectable fighters – with the only bad one coming via Amanda Nunes’ fists.

While everything looks fine for Pennington to continue her surge, she does lose some reach against Julianna Pena, who would arguably have the edge from a technical perspective. She has five career submission wins, with one coming against the mighty Nunes.

Her last loss was a dropped Decision versus Nunes, so to say she’s battle tested is a huge understatement. At 35, she may be looking at her last chance to take this belt, too.

Pena feels like a fun underdog for this event. Anyone who can hang with – let alone beat – Nunes is in play for me (especially at this price).

Bet: Julianna Pena +135

Mario Bautista (-140) vs. Jose Aldo (+110)

Speaking of fun narratives, how about we buy the idea of Jose Aldo being good again? The ageless wonder has had an amazing career, and it really all went to hell when he lost to Conor McGregor.

Still, most of his defeats came against some renowned MMA talent, and he’s bounced back in recent years. Aldo hasn’t scored an early stoppage win since 2019, but he’s 4-1 over his last five, and could be eyeing a title shot if he can keep it rolling.

Aldo stands in at 32-8 overall, and he absolutely has the edge in terms of experience. He will also have a mild reach advantage in this one, while he has better takedown accuracy when compared to his opponent.

That’d be none other than Mario Bautista, who is considerably younger and on fire with six straight victories. His last win came against Ricky Simon, while he’s displayed a versatile skill-set and the ability to end fights early (9 of 14 wins inside the distance).

This is easily his biggest UFC fight in terms of name recognition, and it’s worth wondering if this is a passing of the torch situation, or a baptism by fire. Has Aldo been relegated to gate-keeper, or can he stunt Bautista’s growth and keep trending upwards?

I’d like to think Aldo can still fight, and an even bigger fight is just around the corner. Given his skill-set, recent form, and the +110 odds, I’m game for rolling the dice in this one.

Bet: Jose Aldo +110

Kevin Holland (-160) vs. Roman Dolidze (+130)

One of my favorite UFC 307 fights has Kevin Holland looking to add to his 26-11 record. The 31-year old American is younger than his opponent, is taller, and has a major reach edge (81 to 76).

Holland is always a fun guy to root for, as he has a colorful personality and he is as explosive as it gets. He’s scored 14 KO wins in his career, but he’s also racked up 8 submissions. Most of his losses have come via Decision, too, while his resume is loaded with huge names.

The problem with Holland is that he hasn’t made much noise in recent years. He put his name back on the UFC map with a submission win against Michael Oleksiejczuk, but he’s just 3-4 over his last seven fights.

The early stoppage ability is still there, though, so I get why he’s favored. I don’t know if that’s as prevalent as it’d normally be, though, seeing as Roman Dolidze is impossible to finish.

Holland could always change that, but to this point, nobody has KO’d or submitted The Caucasian. He has some KO ability of his own, too, while he’s gone the distance with the likes of Nassourdine Imavov, Marvin Vettori, and most recently beat Anthony Smith.

As much as I like Holland, I think he could get in some trouble here. Give me the value with Dolidze, who is a threat to end this early, but could be an even better bet to grind out a Decision win.

Bet: Roman Dolidze +130

Kayla Harrison (-900) vs. Ketlen Vieira (+550)

The last fight for the UFC 307 main card has Kayla Harrison as the biggest favorite of the night. Her price is honestly even worse depending on where you bet on UFC fights, but the point here is she is incredibly versatile and just really tough to overpower.

Harrison has one loss to her name, and to this point nobody has tripped her up with an early stoppage. She may not be quite what she was in the PFL now that she’s 34, but she can still dominate the UFC and showed everyone that when she dropped a rear-naked choke on Holly Holm at UFC 300.

That was her coming out party, and I tend to think she’s just getting started. 

Insert Ketlen Vierira, who is a stellar 14-3, but is about just as old as Harrison, and doesn’t have much of a reach edge. Her resume is rock solid, but Harrison grades out as an over-match for her if this one comes down to wrestling.

Viera could give bettors trouble if she lands some big punches, but Harrison is the superior technical fighter and should be able to dominate her. She has bigger fish to fry, likely using this fight as a launching pad to a title fight in the near future.

Of course, betting on Harrison to win straight up at -900 gets you nowhere. If you’re going to bet on this bout, take Harrison to win via submission.

Bet: Kayla Harrison -900

UFC 307 Preliminary Card Predictions

This card actually has early prelims (5:30 pm EST on ESPN+) and regular prelims (7:00 pm EST on ESPN+), so make sure you tune in early. Here’s the matchup breakdown and odds for each preliminary fight.

Joaquin Buckley (-200) vs. Stephen Thompson +165)

The disrespect for Buckley and Thompson is insane, as this absolutely could be argued as a fight worthy of the UFC 307 main card.

Buckley feels like he’s been around forever now, but he’s shockingly just 30 years old. He’s also been feeling it as of late, reeling off four straight wins. They’ve come against big names, too, as he TKO’d Vicente Luque last March, and outlasted Alex Morono back in 2023.

We know Buckley is a knockout waiting to happen. He has 13 KOs in his career, and he isn’t a threat to win on the ground. Quite simply, if this fight stays on the feet, he is a really good bet to win in general, and absolutely in play to score the knockout.

Of course, it’s not like Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is some scrub. He’s admittedly rather long in the tooth now at age 41, but he has 8 career knockouts of his own, and he’s only been finished via KO once in his career.

Sadly, Thompson’s best days are behind him. He got submitted in his last bout, and he hasn’t fought since December of 2023. Rust and age could be major negatives here, while he’s 1-3 over his last four fights overall.

Buckley feels like the obvious pick. I think his price makes him a terrific straight up bet, but I’d find it hard to not go all in with a KO bet.

Bet: Joaquin Buckley -200

Iasmin Lucindo (-175) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+145)

Another women’s bout is on the card and it sees Brazilian Iasmin Lucindo (16-5) taking on Marina Rodriguez (17-4). Lucindo comes in as the betting favorite after winning three straight fights since dropping a Decision in her UFC debut.

She’s shown true grit and solid skills in the top MMA promotion so far, and she has the edge in youth, takedown accuracy, and reach in this one.

Marina Rodriguez has a good record, but she doesn’t feel like a big problem for Lucindo. Her recent form is suspect (1-3 over her last four), and at age 37 she could be on her way down.

It’s worth noting that she did score a TKO win two fights ago, and she’s far more experienced. All things said, she looks like a solid value at +145, but I think Lucindo has proven herself and could quickly be on the rise.

Part of her ascent should be getting a big win against a battle-tested veteran like Rodriguez.

Bet: Iasmin Lucindo -175

Cesar Almeida (-385) vs. Ihor Potierira (+285)

Another battle of young vs. old goes down at UFC 307 when Cesar Almeida (5-1) will try to take out Ihor Potieria (20-6). Almeida is a huge favorite despite being eight years old and losing the height and reach game.

The issue with Almeida is he simply hasn’t taken many professional MMA fights. He got things started back in 2016, but he only has six pro fights to his name. The good news is he’s 5-1 and his only loss was a respectable Decision against Roman Kopylov.

Not getting KO’d by Kopylov alone is impressive, while Almeida impressed with a TKO win in his UFC debut last April. He’s an explosive and dangerous fighter, but it’s worth wondering if we should go with the underdog when we consider experience.

On the other side is Potierira, who is quite versatile and has 15 early stoppage wins to his name. Of course, he hasn’t been getting it done lately, as he’s just 2-4 over his last six fights.

All four of those losses have come via early stoppage, too, with three of them being via TKO. I think Ihor is interesting, but I trust the odds here. Almeida is a solid bet to earn another KO.

Bet: Cesar Almeida -385

Ryan Spann (-290) vs. Ovince St. Preux (+230)

Ovince St. Preux keeps trucking on. The 41-year old was at one point a feared KO artist, but he’s obviously near the end of his career and has just one knockout since 2018.

I’m not saying he can’t tap into that skill, but he hasn’t shown it’s probable. He’s also just 2-3 over his last five bouts, and it’s been him (all three losses via KO) that has been displaying a soft chin.

St. Preux is a bad bet to win this one early, and I doubt he outlasts Ryan Spann in general, either.

Spann isn’t a very exciting fighter to back, as he’s lost three in a row. However, he also has KO upside and even has 12 career submissions to his name. He owns the edge in significant strikes landed per minute, too.

I think Spann is a fine ML bet, but he’s getting one of his softer matchups in a while. Don’t be shocked if he finishes St. Preux early.

Bet: Ryan Spann -290

Tim Means (-200) vs. Court McGee (+165)

We have another battle of some geriatric MMA fighters, as the 39-year old McGee hopes to edge out the 40-year old Means.

The oddsmakers don’t think he will, as he’s been tough to trust (2-6) over his last eight fights. He’s also not a threat to end the fight early, as he hasn’t knocked anyone out or scored a submission since 2016.

Yikes, am I right? At least Tim Means offers some upside. He has 33 wins to his name, with 20 coming via KO. One of them came recently, too, as he TKO’d Andre Fialho in September of 2023.

Still, his recent form hasn’t been much better. He’s just 1-4 over his last five bouts, and he’s been getting slapped around with regularity. You honestly could argue for either side, as both guys can be KO’d at this point, and both are old.

I think of the two, Means just provides a little more finishing potential. He’s the fighter to back, but if I had my choice, I’d just bet on this one ending early in general.

Bet: Tim Means -200

Tecia Pennington (-170) vs. Carla Esparza (+140)

You might want to go the opposite way with our third female match of UFC 307, as Tecia Pennington has 11 Decisions across 13 career wins. She’s also never been KO’d or submitted, so we’re getting a nasty grinder here.

Her toughness is a big reason why she’s favored against Carla Esparza, although the latter has superior takedown accuracy and better striking numbers. Pennington’s recent form also isn’t the best (0-2), but she took losses against quality opponents (namely Mackenzie Dern) and had won her three previous bouts.

Esparza offers more finishing upside (8 career early stoppage wins), and she’s been hotter with a 6-1 record over her last seven fights. They’ve come against some big names, too, with wins against Rose Namajunas, Xiaonan Yan, Alexa Grasso, and others.

Let’s not ignore the fact that this is her retirement fight, either. I don’t deny Pennington’s grit, but there’s just no upside with her. I’ll roll with the underdog here and hope for some fireworks.

Bet: Carla Esparza +140

Alexander Hernandez (-190) vs. Austin Hubbard (+165)

To cap things off, we get an underrated bout between Alexander Hernandez (14-8) and Austin Hubbard (17-7). Hubbard is the underdog, but this one looks like a difficult fight to call. It honestly might be a good one to just bet on the rounds for.

Hernandez crashed down to earth after an awesome 10-1 start to his MMA career. Since that hot run, he’s gone just 4-7. Initially it had a lot to do with the big names he was running into, but even that isn’t an excuse anymore.

He does have some KO ability (6 career knockouts), but he hasn’t beaten anyone with his power since dropping Mike Breeden back in 2021.

Hubbard’s recent form is better, as he is 3-1 over his last four fights. He’s also never been KO’d, and this feels like a bad time to bet on that happening. This is a pretty tight fight, but I prefer the value with Hubbard, especially since he has the edge in striking and takedown accuracy.

Bet: Austin Hubbard +165

UFC 307 Fight Card