Unlv Rebels vs Syracuse Orange Picks and Predictions October 4th 2024

No. 25 UNLV begins tough stretch by hosting Syracuse

UNLV is the -6 point favorite as they host the Syracuse Orange in a week six non-conference matchup. Kick-off is set for 9:00 ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The game can be seen on FS1. Both teams are undefeated, with UNLV at 4-0 and Syracuse at 3-1. The over/under line is currently at 59.5 points.

Syracuse vs. UNLV Key Information

• Teams: Orange at Rebels
• Where: Allegiant Stadium Las Vegas
• Date: Friday, October 4th
• Betting Odds UNLV -231 | SYRA +188 O/U 59.5

The Orange Can Win If…

Syracuse enters Week 6 with a 3-1 record, but they have just a 0.1% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast, according to projections. However, they have a 46.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Orange are 2-1 on the road this season and are ranked 69th in our CFB power rankings.

Their ATS record is 1-2, with an average scoring margin of +11.2 points per game. Syracuse is 0-2 against the spread as the favorite but has covered in their only game as the underdog.

Syracuse’s over/under record is 1-2, with their games averaging 56.2 points. The average over/under line has been 53.8 points, and this week’s line is set at 59.5 points.

Syracuse’s offense is averaging 33.8 points per game, placing them 34th nationally, and they are ranked 43rd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. They have been strong on third downs, converting 53.2% of their attempts, which ranks 8th in the country. Their passing game is the focal point, with 45 attempts per game, ranking 14th, and they are 13th in both completions and passing yards, averaging 372.5 yards per game. Their completion percentage is 64.4%, and their passer rating is 104.

Kyle McCord leads the Syracuse passing attack with 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns, though he has thrown 5 interceptions and holds a passer rating of 104. LeQuint Allen is the team’s leading rusher with 287 yards and one touchdown, averaging 5 yards per carry. Trebor Pena has caught 26 passes for 316 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Syracuse’s defense heads into their matchup against UNLV ranked 31st nationally, allowing 22.5 points per game. They’ve given up 204.8 passing yards per game, ranking 77th, and 137.5 rushing yards. Opposing quarterbacks have a 76.9 passer rating and a 62.1% completion rate against Syracuse.

In their game against Holy Cross, Syracuse allowed just 14 points and 8 first downs. The defense gave up only 9 rushing yards on 25 attempts, while Holy Cross threw for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Syracuse also forced one interception in the game.

• Syracuse has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 0-3.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Syracuse has a record of 5-5. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 3-7 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Rebels Can Win If…

UNLV enters Week 6 with a perfect 4-0 record and a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible, according to projections. They also have a 34.3% chance of winning the Mountain West and rank 15th in the nation with a 30.5% chance of making the CFB playoff. The Rebels will host Syracuse this week, looking to extend their unbeaten streak.

UNLV is 1-0 at home and 2-0 on the road this season, with a +31.5 average scoring margin. They’ve been favored in just one game but have covered the spread in all three matchups, going 3-0 ATS.

This week’s over/under line is 59.5 points, higher than their average line of 54.7. UNLV’s over/under record is 1-2, with their games averaging 59 points per contest.

Heading into week 6, UNLV’s offense is ranked 32nd in our offensive power rankings, and they are 9th in points per game, scoring 45.2. Their rushing attack is the focal point, averaging 284.5 yards per game on 48 attempts, which ranks 14th nationally.

Quarterback Matthew Sluka has thrown for 318 yards, and UNLV ranks 119th in passing yards per game. Sluka has six touchdown passes and one interception, with a passer rating of 97. Ricky White III leads the receiving corps with 253 yards and five touchdowns on 20 catches.

UNLV’s defense has been impressive this season, ranking 9th nationally by allowing just 13.8 points per game. They’ve been particularly strong against the run, giving up only 83.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 14th in the country. Opponents have averaged 29 rushing attempts per game against UNLV, while quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of just 57.6, the 13th-lowest in college football.

In their recent game against Fresno State, UNLV’s defense gave up just 14 points and allowed 30 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Fresno State threw the ball 45 times, gaining 316 passing yards, but UNLV’s defense also came up with four interceptions in the game.

• UNLV will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 3-0 over-under mark.
• UNLV has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 7-3 on the over-under.

The Lean

Syracuse is coming into this game as the +6 point underdogs on the road vs. UNLV, but we like their chances to pull off the upset, with our projected final score being 32-22 in favor of the Orange. So, take Syracuse to win straight-up.

For the over/under, with the line sitting at 59.5 points, our projection of 54 points suggests that taking the under is the best play.

NCAAF EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

Every team faces obstacles throughout a long season, and No. 25 UNLV Rebels are no exception. The Rebels, now ranked for the first time in program history, have already navigated their first major challenge—losing their starting quarterback, Matthew Sluka, after a sudden departure. This Friday, UNLV (4-0) will face another test when they host Syracuse (3-1) in a highly anticipated nonconference matchup in Las Vegas.

UNLV’s Historic Ranking and Recent Setback

UNLV’s rise to the No. 25 spot has been hard-earned, but it hasn’t been without turbulence. The Rebels were thriving with Matthew Sluka under center, as the dual-threat quarterback had led them to three consecutive wins, contributing six passing touchdowns and rushing for a team-high 253 yards. However, last week, Sluka abruptly left the team following disagreements over unmet NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) promises—a growing issue in college athletics. His departure left a void in the Rebels’ offense, forcing the coaching staff to quickly regroup.

Coach Barry Odom swiftly adjusted by turning to backup quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, a transfer from Campbell University. Williams made the most of his opportunity, putting on an impressive performance in last week’s 59-14 blowout of Fresno State. The new starter completed 13-of-16 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns, while also showcasing his mobility with 12 carries for 119 yards and another score. This dual-threat capability is reminiscent of what Sluka brought to the offense, and it will continue to be a focal point as UNLV moves forward.

Coach Odom’s Vision: Climbing Higher in the Rankings

While UNLV’s ranking is historic, Odom is far from satisfied. He’s made it clear that simply breaking into the Top 25 is not enough. “I think it is exactly where UNLV football should be,” Odom stated. “That’s our goal—one of our goals—is to be in the Top 25 and continue to climb and have a place in the rankings every single week.” Odom’s ambitious approach underscores the team’s desire to not just enjoy their newfound recognition but to sustain and build on it.

The upcoming schedule presents a significant challenge for UNLV. After Friday’s matchup against Syracuse, the Rebels will play three of their next four games on the road, including a critical home game against No. 21 Boise State. Maintaining their ranking will require consistent, strong performances, especially with such a tough slate ahead.

Hajj-Malik Williams: The New Offensive Leader

Williams’ debut as a starter against Fresno State was nothing short of spectacular. His ability to both throw and run effectively makes him a nightmare for opposing defenses, as noted by Syracuse head coach Fran Brown. “It’s tough any time you’re playing against someone like Hajj who can run and throw,” Brown said. “It’s a nightmare for the defensive coordinator and the head coach. You think about it all week.”

Syracuse will undoubtedly focus on containing Williams, but his performance suggests that he is well-equipped to handle the pressure. Williams’ versatility is crucial for UNLV’s success, and as the season progresses, his ability to fill Sluka’s shoes will be under constant scrutiny.

Syracuse’s Defense: A Key Factor

Syracuse enters Friday’s game with a 3-1 record, coming off a convincing 42-14 win over Holy Cross, where they limited the Crusaders to just 203 total yards. Coach Brown has his own aspirations for the team, but he acknowledges that Syracuse has yet to reach its full potential. “I don’t think we’re anywhere near where we can be,” Brown remarked after the Holy Cross game. “We’ve just got to keep growing.”

On defense, Syracuse will need to focus on limiting big plays from UNLV’s top wide receiver, Ricky White. White has been inconsistent this season, recording just five catches for 15 yards in games against Houston and Kansas, but exploding for 15 catches, 238 yards, and five touchdowns in games against Utah Tech and Fresno State. If White can maintain that level of production, Syracuse’s defense will have its hands full.

Syracuse’s Offensive Strength: Kyle McCord and a Deep Receiving Corps

While Syracuse’s defense will be crucial, the offense led by quarterback Kyle McCord will play a significant role in determining the outcome. McCord, an Ohio State transfer, has been generally impressive in his first season with the Orange. He has passed for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns in four games, though he has struggled with turnovers, throwing two interceptions in each of the last two games. Maintaining ball security will be vital for McCord as he faces a capable UNLV defense.

The Orange have a deep and versatile receiving corps, led by Trebor Pena, who has caught 26 passes for 316 yards and five touchdowns this season. McCord has several other reliable targets, including Jackson Meeks, who had a breakout game against Holy Cross with 10 receptions for 161 yards and a touchdown. Syracuse’s offense will look to exploit any weaknesses in UNLV’s secondary, but the key will be McCord’s ability to avoid costly mistakes.

The Stakes for Both Teams

This game is the first-ever meeting between UNLV and Syracuse, and both teams have plenty to gain from a win. For UNLV, a victory would reinforce their status as a Top 25 team and help build momentum heading into a tough stretch of their schedule. For Syracuse, a win on the road against a ranked opponent would be a statement victory and a confidence booster as they prepare for the rest of their season.

UNLV’s ability to handle Syracuse’s offense, particularly McCord’s passing attack, will be critical. Similarly, Syracuse must figure out how to contain Williams and prevent big plays from White. Both teams have the firepower to win, but the game may ultimately come down to which defense can rise to the occasion and limit their opponent’s explosive potential.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Matchup for Both Programs

Friday’s matchup between UNLV and Syracuse is more than just a nonconference game—it’s a litmus test for both teams. UNLV is looking to solidify its place in the Top 25 and prove that they belong among the nation’s best, even after losing their starting quarterback. Syracuse, on the other hand, wants to continue its growth under Coach Brown and notch a key road victory against a ranked opponent.

The result of this game will have significant implications for both teams, setting the tone for the crucial weeks ahead.