Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions October 3rd 2024

Bucs Visit Raheem Morris’ Falcons in Crucial NFC South Battle

The Falcons are favored at -124 on the money line as they host the Buccaneers in a week five NFC South matchup. The game, being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, kicks off at 8:15 ET and is being televised by AMZN. The Falcons are -1.5 point favorites, and the over/under line is set at 43.5 points. The Falcons and Buccaneers both need to add their current season records.

Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta Key Information

• Teams: Buccaneers at Falcons
• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
• Date: Thursday, October 3rd
• Betting Odds ATL -124 | TB +104 O/U 43.5

The Buccaneers Can Win If…

The Buccaneers improved to 3-1 on the season with a 33-16 win over the Eagles. Tampa Bay jumped out to an early 14-0 lead after Baker Mayfield connected with Mike Evans for a touchdown. Despite Philadelphia scoring, the Buccaneers added 10 more points in the 2nd quarter and led 24-7 at halftime. Even though the Eagles added a touchdown in the 3rd quarter, the Buccaneers responded with a Saquon Barkley 59-yard touchdown run.

Heading into the 4th quarter, the Buccaneers were up 30-16. The Buccaneers were +1 point underdogs heading into the game, and their 17-point victory was more than enough to cover the spread.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield led the Buccaneers to a 33-16 win over the Eagles, throwing for 347 yards and completing 63% of his passes. Tampa Bay’s offense picked up 29 first downs and gained 334 yards through the air. Mayfield threw two touchdowns and was not intercepted.

Mike Evans was a key target for Mayfield, finishing with 94 yards receiving and one touchdown. The Buccaneers didn’t find much success in the running game, with Bucky Irving leading the team with just 49 yards on 10 carries, including one rushing touchdown.

In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed just 114 passing yards, with the Eagles completing 18 passes for 60%. Tampa Bay came away with six sacks and held Philadelphia to just 16 points in their 33-16 win. The Buccaneers’ run defense gave up 113 yards on 20 attempts, and on 46.2% of their third down attempts, the Eagles failed to convert.

The Buccaneers’ pressure on the quarterback was a key factor, as they had a positive differential in QB hits, as well as in tackles for loss. Despite allowing one passing touchdown, their strong pass rush limited the Eagles’ passing game and helped them secure the win.

• Spanning across their last three games, Tampa Bay have gone 2-1. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 1-2.
• The Buccaneers have gone 7-3 over their last ten regular season games. This includes going 7-3 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Falcons Can Win If…

The Falcons picked up a 26-24 win over the Saints to move to 2-2 on the season. Atlanta trailed 14-7 in the 2nd quarter but fought back to take a 17-14 lead with a Kirk Cousins touchdown pass to Bijan Robinson. The Falcons added a field goal in the 3rd quarter and another in the 4th to take a 23-17 lead.

New Orleans made it interesting in the 4th quarter, as Alvin Kamara scored with just 29 seconds left to put the Falcons behind 24-23. However, Atlanta still managed to pull out the win, as Younghoe Koo nailed a 58-yard field goal with seven seconds left. The Falcons were -2.5 point favorites, and the game-winning field goal also pushed the game over the total line of 42.5 points.

Despite their win over the Saints, the Falcons’ offense struggled in their most recent game, managing just 14 first downs and 227 yards on 35 passing attempts. They failed to score a passing touchdown, and Kirk Cousins finished with 238 yards passing, completing 21 of 35 passes and throwing one interception.

Atlanta’s running game was equally ineffective, with only 88 yards on 15 attempts. Tyler Allgeier was their leading rusher with 60 yards, including a 15-yard run. Drake London led the team in receiving with 64 yards.

Atlanta’s defense came up with a key interception in their 26-24 win over the Saints, despite allowing New Orleans to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts. The Falcons gave up 131 rushing yards on 33 attempts, and allowed 235 passing yards on 28 completions (6.5 yards per attempt).

The Falcons’ defense held the Saints without a passing touchdown and forced a turnover. They also managed one sack and won the tackles for loss battle by a margin of +2.

• The Falcons have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. This includes going 0-3 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Atlanta has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). This includes going 2-8 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

The Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are gearing up for a big showdown this Thursday—a game that could set the tone for the rest of the NFC South division this season. Both teams have their sights set on claiming the top spot, with the Falcons at 2-2 and the Buccaneers sitting slightly ahead at 3-1. This highly anticipated clash marks the 62nd time these two rivals meet, and Tampa Bay holds a slim lead in the all-time series, 31-30.

Overview of the NFC South Showdown

Thursday’s game will play a critical role in shaping the future of the NFC South this season. With both teams sporting new strategies and a roster packed with talent, fans can expect an intense battle that could influence who dominates the division.

Current Standings and Stakes

The Buccaneers are chasing their fourth straight NFC South title and they’re determined to keep their edge. On the other side, the Falcons are motivated to show they mean business, with first-year head coach Raheem Morris determined to turn them into serious contenders. This game isn’t just about points or rankings—it’s about the ongoing rivalry and pride that fuels both teams.

The Falcons vs. Buccaneers: A Historic Rivalry

The Falcons and Buccaneers have built up a long history of fierce matchups, with the current all-time head-to-head sitting at 31-30 in Tampa Bay’s favor. The Bucs have had the upper hand recently, taking six of the last eight meetings, but the rivalry remains intense.

Head-to-Head Record: Who Has the Edge?

With just a single win separating these teams in their all-time record, Thursday’s game could either even the score or give the Buccaneers a bit more breathing room. Historically, these games are tight—often coming down to the final moments, which is exactly what fans love about this NFC South rivalry.

Recent Game Highlights and Performance

The Bucs come into this game with a lot of confidence, fresh off a decisive victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. On the other hand, the Falcons are feeling pretty good too, after snatching a thrilling last-second win against the New Orleans Saints with a 58-yard field goal from Younghoe Koo.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Finding Their Groove

Bouncing Back From Week 3

The Buccaneers needed to prove themselves after a tough Week 3 loss to the Denver Broncos. They found their rhythm in Week 4, dominating the Eagles as their offense fired on all cylinders and the defense held strong.

Key Performers Against the Eagles

Baker Mayfield led the charge for the Bucs, throwing for an impressive 347 yards and two touchdowns. His connection with Mike Evans was unstoppable, with Evans putting up eight catches for 94 yards and scoring a touchdown.

Baker Mayfield: Leading the Charge

Mayfield has truly breathed new life into his career with Tampa Bay, showing a blend of composure and efficiency that has kept the Buccaneers’ offense electric. His quick reads and rapid release have been key to maintaining their unpredictable and dynamic style.

Mike Evans Back in Form

Mike Evans proved once again why he’s one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league. After a relatively slow start to the season, he delivered a standout performance, demonstrating his strong chemistry with Mayfield and his natural ability to exploit defensive weaknesses. His playmaking will be crucial if the Buccaneers want to keep their lead in the division.

The Lean

With the point spread sitting at 1.5 in favor of the Falcons, our pick vs. the spread is to take Atlanta to cover as home favorites. We have the Falcons winning this one 21-15, making them a good pick to cover at home.

For the over/under, with the line at 43.5 points, we have a projected combined score of 36 points, making our pick to take the under in this week five matchup between the Falcons and Buccaneers.