Milwaukee Brewers vs Ny Mets Picks and Predictions October 2nd 2024

Brewers turn to Frankie Montas to save season vs. Mets

Wednesday’s matchup between the Mets and Brewers is set for 7:38 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Mets are 89-73 and are 2nd in the NL East, while the Brewers are 93-69 and are 1st in the NL Central.

Sean Manaea will start for the Mets, while the Brewers are sending Frankie Montas to the mound. On the money line, the Mets are the slight favorite, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. This game will be televised on ESPN.

New York vs. Milwaukee Key Information

• Teams: Mets at Brewers
• Where: American Family Field Milwaukee
• Date: Wednesday, October 2nd
• Betting Odds NYM -110 | MIL -109 O/U 7.5

The Mets Can Win If…

Heading into game two of their series against the Brewers, the Mets hold a 1-0 lead and are looking to close things out on the road. New York finished the regular season with an 89-73 record, going 46-35 at home and 43-38 on the road. As favorites, they posted a 59-39 mark, while they went 31-34 as underdogs.

New York’s run line record for the season is 83-80, with a 45-37 mark against the run line on the road. As favorites, their run line record is 45-53, while they’re 38-27 as underdogs. The Mets’ games have averaged 9.1 total runs this year, and their over/under record is 82-76. Today’s 7.5-run line is lower than 67.3% of their games this season.

Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA. Manaea’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.08, and opponents are batting .195 off the left-hander this year. In his last outing, Manaea took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Manaea has made 16 starts on the road and has a record of 6-3 with a 3.69 ERA.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Lindor has 33 homers and Alonso has 34. Lindor is also batting .273 for the season, and Alonso is at .240. Lindor has been swinging the bat well of late, going 6/21 in his last five games with two homers. Jose Iglesias has also been hot, hitting .333 over his last eight games.

As a team, the Mets are 7th in the league in runs scored at 4.7 runs per game. They have been good at home and on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road and 4.7 at home. For the season, they are batting .246, which is 8th in the league.

• The Mets are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 4-6
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 4.2 runs per game on offense

The Brewers Can Win If…

Facing a must-win situation, the Brewers are looking to even their series against the Mets, who hold a 1-0 lead heading into game three. Milwaukee posted a 93-69 record during the regular season, going 47-34 at home and 46-35 on the road. As favorites, they went 54-39, while their record as underdogs was 39-31.

Milwaukee’s run line record for the season is 82-81, and they’ve dropped their last two home games against the run line. At home, their average run margin is +0.5, compared to +1.1 on the road. The Brewers’ over/under record is 82-71, and today’s 7.5-run line is below their season average of 8 runs.

Frankie Montas will be looking to pitch more like he did on September 12th, where he didn’t allow a run in six innings of work and got the win. In his most recent outing, Montas finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in four innings of work. Against the Mets today, he will be looking to bounce back from his outing on September 22nd, where he gave up seven earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work. Montas’ overall record this year is 7-11, and his ERA is 4.84. So far, he has made nine quality starts and is averaging 8.84 strikeouts per nine innings.

William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, as Adames’ 32 homers is 1st on the team and 12th in the league, while Contreras is 3rd on the team with 23 homers. Adames’ 112 RBIs is 4th in the league and the top mark on the Brewers. Rhys Hoskins has also been a solid power threat this season, with 26 homers, but he is batting just .214.

Over his last four games, Brice Turang has gone 8/18, including scoring five runs. Gary Sanchez is also swinging a hot bat, going 4/10 in his last four games. However, Rhys Hoskins has struggled a bit of late, going just 2/13.

• The Brewers are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Brewers are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Milwaukee has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Brewers have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Brewers are 6-4
• Looking back across the Brewers last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Milwaukee has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Brewers have averaged 5.1 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Today’s Mets vs. Brewers matchup should be a low-scoring game, and our lean would be to take the under. As for who is going to take this one straight up, we have our lean on the Mets to pick up the win. Between the two starters, we have Sean Manaea as the better strikeout option than Frankie Montas for the Brewers.

The Milwaukee Brewers are relying on midseason acquisition Frankie Montas to prevent another heartbreaking postseason exit as they face the New York Mets in a must-win Game 2 of the National League wild-card series on Wednesday. Following a tough 8-4 loss in Game 1, the Brewers are now fighting to stay alive in the series, with Montas on the mound hoping to reverse their playoff misfortunes.

Montas (7-11, 4.84 ERA) faces off against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47 ERA) in a matchup that could define the Brewers’ season.

High-Stakes Battle for Milwaukee

The Brewers, fresh off clinching the NL Central, find themselves on the brink of elimination after dropping Game 1 to the Mets. The team is desperately seeking to avoid extending its postseason losing streak to seven games, with a poor 1-10 playoff record dating back to 2018.

Manager Pat Murphy remains optimistic, citing his team’s resilience during the regular season. “This team has responded in all those [adversities],” Murphy said. “We’ve bounced back against tough opponents before, and I believe we’ll do it again.”

Montas is being entrusted to keep the Brewers’ playoff hopes alive, despite an up-and-down season and postseason struggles. In three career postseason appearances, Montas holds a 9.45 ERA, including one start. His overall performance against the Mets in the regular season hasn’t been stellar either, with a 5.06 ERA in three games (two starts).

Game 1: Mets Show Grit in Comeback Victory

The Mets took control of the series after a come-from-behind victory in Game 1, winning 8-4. The Brewers initially led twice, but a five-run fifth inning from the Mets turned the tide. The Mets capitalized on Brewers’ bullpen struggles, with key contributions from Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez. Winker, who hit just .199 for Milwaukee last season, drove in the Mets’ first two runs with a crucial triple.

Mets starter Luis Severino, though not dominant, managed to contain the Brewers, going six innings and allowing four runs (three earned) on 105 pitches. His ability to grind through six frames allowed the Mets to reset their bullpen for Game 2, with Jose Butto and Ryne Stanek combining to retire the final 17 Brewers in order.

“The game was back and forth, but we stayed aggressive,” said Mets manager Carlos Mendoza. “We put the ball in play when it mattered and ran the bases well. That kept the pressure on them, and we never backed down.”

Manaea vs. Montas: A Rematch on the Mound

Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea are no strangers to facing off. The two pitchers squared off just days ago, in a game the Brewers won 8-4. Montas allowed two runs over four innings, while Manaea struggled, giving up six runs (five earned) in just 3 2/3 innings. Despite Manaea’s poor performance in that game, he enters Wednesday’s matchup having been solid throughout September, posting a 3.32 ERA in six starts.

However, Manaea has not fared well in the postseason. In three career playoff appearances (two starts), he has an alarming 15.26 ERA across 7 2/3 innings. His regular-season history against Milwaukee is also mixed, with a 5.48 ERA over five games (four starts). Manaea will be hoping to shake off those demons and send the Mets to their first postseason series win since 2015.

Montas, on the other hand, has shown inconsistency throughout the year and enters with a 4.84 ERA. The Brewers will need him to elevate his game in this crucial elimination scenario, but his postseason track record leaves questions about his ability to deliver in high-pressure situations.

Brewers’ Playoff Woes

Milwaukee’s recent postseason history has been rough. Since their Game 7 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2018 NLCS, the Brewers have struggled to perform in October. They lost six consecutive playoff games and have failed to win a postseason series since that 2018 run. Last season, they were swept at home in the NL wild-card round by the Arizona Diamondbacks, despite winning their division.

Manager Murphy is counting on the team’s regular-season resilience to translate into postseason success. “Remember, we’ve faced adversity before,” Murphy said, recalling times the Brewers bounced back after being dominated by teams like the Dodgers and Yankees during the season.

Mets Eyeing Long-Awaited Postseason Success

For the Mets, Wednesday presents an opportunity to secure their first postseason series victory since sweeping the Chicago Cubs in the 2015 NLCS. After sneaking into the playoffs with a win in a makeup game against the Atlanta Braves, the Mets are hoping to ride their momentum into the next round.

J.D. Martinez, who had a pivotal two-run single in the Mets’ decisive fifth inning in Game 1, spoke about the team’s postseason mentality. “Once you get to these games, the adrenaline and the energy from the fans take over. You don’t think about anything but winning. It’s just about execution now.”

The Mets’ aggressive playstyle, evident in their ability to come back multiple times in Game 1, will be key as they look to close out the series in Game 2. With their bullpen reset and their confidence soaring, they’ll aim to punch their ticket to the next round.

Montas Must Deliver

For the Brewers to force a Game 3, Montas will need to deliver one of his best performances of the season. While his track record raises concerns, Milwaukee is banking on Montas to provide a stabilizing presence on the mound and keep the Mets’ dangerous lineup at bay.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Milwaukee’s offense will need to break through against Manaea and the Mets’ bullpen, while Montas must give the Brewers a fighting chance to extend their season and avoid another disappointing postseason exit.

Will the Brewers finally break their postseason curse, or will the Mets continue their surge toward October glory?

Conclusion

As the Brewers face elimination, Frankie Montas holds the key to their postseason survival. The Brewers need to overcome their playoff demons and match the Mets’ aggressive style in order to stay in the hunt for a championship. Meanwhile, the Mets, riding high on their Game 1 victory, will look to Manaea and their bullpen to carry them into the next round.

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