Florida Gators vs Central Florida Knights Picks and Predictions October 5th 2024

SEC Network will be covering this week six non-conference matchup between the UCF Knights and the Florida Gators, set to kick off at 7:45 ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. UCF is coming in with a 3-1 record, while Florida is 2-2. The Gators are the slight +2.5 point underdogs at home, with the over/under line currently at 61.5 points.

UCF vs. Florida Key Information

• Teams: Knights at Gators
• Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Gainesville
• Date: Saturday, October 5th
• Betting Odds UCF -135 | FL +113 O/U 61.5

UCF enters Week 6 against Florida with a 3-1 record, ranked 31st in our power rankings. They have an 88.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Knights are 1-0 on the road and 1-1 at home this season.

UCF’s average scoring margin is +14.8, and they are 2-1 against the spread. They’ve been favored in two games, going 1-1 ATS as the favorite.

The over/under line for this week is 61.5 points. UCF’s games have averaged 64.2 points, with an average line of 58.8 points. Their over/under record is 3-0 this season.

UCF’s offense is heavily focused on their running game, ranking 2nd in the nation with 326 rushing yards per game. They are 6th in rushing attempts, averaging 52.2 per game. RJ Harvey leads the team with 525 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns, and an average of 7 yards per carry. UCF is also 19th in scoring, with 39.5 points per game, and they are 24th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6.

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KJ Jefferson has thrown for 847 yards this season, with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 106. UCF ranks 89th in passing yards per game, averaging 217.2 yards. Kobe Hudson leads the receiving corps with 349 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 catches.

UCF’s defense will look to bounce back after a tough game against Colorado, where they allowed 48 points in a 48-21 loss. The Knights gave up 418 total yards, including 290 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air, though they did manage to force one interception.

Despite the rough outing, UCF’s defense ranks 12th nationally in rushing yards allowed, giving up just 82.2 yards per game on an average of 25.2 attempts, the 8th fewest in the country. However, they have struggled against the pass, allowing 251.5 yards per game, which ranks 128th nationally, with opposing quarterbacks completing 67% of their passes.

Florida enters Week 6 against UCF with a 2-2 record. They are 1-0 on the road but 0-2 at home. The Gators rank 46th in our power rankings, and their chances of becoming bowl-eligible stand at 14.4%.

Florida’s ATS record is 1-2, with an average scoring margin of +4.5 points per game. They are 1-0 against the spread on the road but 0-2 at home. So far, they’ve been favored in just one game this season.

The over/under line for this week is 61.5, higher than any of their previous games. Florida’s over/under record is 3-0, with an average line of 52.3 points and an average total of 59 points per game.

Heading into week 6, Florida’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per game, placing them 42nd nationally. They are ranked 40th in our offensive power rankings. Their run game has been underwhelming, with 147.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 96th.

Montrell Johnson Jr. leads the team with 234 rushing yards, three touchdowns, and an average of 4 yards per carry. Quarterback DJ Lagway has 617 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 109.

Florida’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27.2 points per game. In their recent game against Mississippi State, they gave up 28 points but still managed a 45-28 win. The defense allowed 294 total yards, including 150 rushing yards on 50 attempts and 144 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 189 rushing yards per game against Florida, ranking them 132nd nationally. The secondary has allowed 236.8 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 65.6% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 107.

Florida is the +2.5 point underdog at home in their week six matchup against UCF, but we like the Gators to pull off the upset. Our projected final score is 29-25 in favor of Florida, making them a good bet to win straight-up.

With the over/under line set at 61.5 points, our projection of 54 combined points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this game.

Florida Moves Past Bye, Hurricane to Tackle UCF

Not even the aftermath of one of the most destructive hurricanes in recent memory stopped Florida from getting work done during its open date. Gators head coach Billy Napier made sure his team stayed focused and prepared.

“We didn’t coddle them,” Napier said. “I will tell you that. It was real in there for three days. So we worked extremely hard Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday in full pads. We got after it.”

Napier hopes the extra work pays off as the Gators (2-2) get ready to host in-state rival UCF (3-1) on Saturday night in a nonconference showdown in Gainesville, Fla.

Napier’s Job Security Amidst Rollercoaster Season

Napier entered the bye week on the heels of a much-needed victory. The Gators dismantled Mississippi State 45-28 on Sept. 21 in Starkville, Miss., ending speculation that Napier’s job was in jeopardy had Florida lost to a team widely considered one of the SEC’s weakest.

Quarterback Graham Mertz played a key role in the win, completing 19 of 21 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns. Mertz, who had missed the team’s 45-7 rout of FCS opponent Samford due to a concussion, returned to guide the offense as Florida amassed 503 total yards against Mississippi State.

Mertz has been efficient all season, completing 75 percent of his passes for 487 yards in three games.

Florida’s Extended Preparation vs. UCF’s Recent Struggles

While Florida enjoyed extra preparation time during its bye week, UCF is coming off a lopsided 48-21 defeat at home to Colorado. The Knights, playing in the Big 12 for the first time this season, struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, allowing 418 total yards to the Buffaloes and never holding a lead in the game.

UCF quarterback KJ Jefferson threw a costly interception in the end zone early, squandering a chance for the Knights to gain momentum. He later lost a fumble in the fourth quarter, leading to another Colorado score that sealed the defeat.

“We’ve got to be efficient in the red zone and come away with points,” Jefferson said. “Whether that’s a touchdown or a kick, we’ve got to come away with something. That right there is totally on me.”

UCF’s Powerful Rushing Attack

Despite the disappointing loss, UCF boasts one of the most powerful rushing attacks in college football. The Knights rank third in FBS with an average of 326 rushing yards per game, led by running back RJ Harvey, who has totaled 525 yards this season.

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Harvey will be a key player to watch as the Knights attempt to rebound from their loss and challenge a Gators team that has had extra time to prepare.

Series History and Home Advantage

Florida holds a 2-1 lead in the all-time series against UCF, with both victories coming in Gainesville. The Gators will look to use their home-field advantage to extend that lead and continue building momentum as they head into the heart of their schedule.