Arkansas Razorbacks vs Tennessee Volunteers Picks and Predictions October 5th 2024

ESPN will be covering this week six matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and Arkansas Razorbacks, set to kick off at 7:30 ET from Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville. Tennessee is undefeated at 4-0, while Arkansas comes in with a 3-2 record. The Vols are favored at -13.5 points, with the over/under line currently set at 60 points.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas Key Information

Tennessee enters Week 6 with a 4-0 record, sitting 5th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 15.3% chance of winning the Southeastern. The Volunteers have the 4th best odds to make the playoff (78.2%) and the national championship game (18.0%).

The Volunteers have a +47 average scoring margin and are 3-0 against the spread this season. They’ve been favored in three of their four games and have covered each time, going 2-0 ATS on the road and 1-0 at home.

Tennessee’s over/under record is 2-1, with their games averaging 61 points. The average over/under line is 59.3 points, and this week’s line is set at 60 points.

Heading into week 6, Tennessee leads the nation in scoring, averaging 54 points per game. They rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. Their ground game is the focal point, with 293.5 rushing yards per game, 12th in rushing attempts. Dylan Sampson has 449 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns, and averages 6 yards per carry.

Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 892 yards, completing 69.3% of his passes, with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Tennessee ranks 51st in passing yards per game. Dont’e Thornton Jr. leads the receivers with 242 yards and three touchdowns.

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Tennessee’s defense has been impressive this season, ranking second in the nation by allowing just 7 points per game. They’ve also held opponents to an average of 67 rushing yards per game, which is the sixth-lowest in the country, and 125.2 passing yards, also ranking sixth.

In their recent game against Oklahoma, Tennessee’s defense allowed 15 points, giving up 130 rushing yards on 32 carries and 161 passing yards. They held Oklahoma to 11 first downs and didn’t allow a passing touchdown.

• Spanning across their last three games, Tennessee have gone 3-0. Against the spread, the team is 3-0 in these same games while going 2-1 on the over/under.
• Across Tennessee’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 8-2. The team’s record vs the spread was just 7-3, in addition to an over-under mark of 6-4.

Arkansas enters Week 6 against Tennessee with a 3-2 record, ranked 27th in our power rankings. They have a 61.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 0.1% chance to win the Southeastern. At home, they are 1-0 this season.

The Razorbacks have been favored in just one game this season and have a +15.6 average scoring margin. Their ATS record is 2-1, going 2-0 on the road and 0-1 at home.

Arkansas’ over/under record is 1-2, with their games averaging 56 points. This week’s line is set at 60, while their average over/under line has been 56.6 points.

Heading into week 6, Arkansas ranks 28th in scoring, averaging 35.8 points per game, and they sit 38th in our offensive power rankings. Their rushing attack is a key strength, ranking 10th in attempts and 17th in yards, with 214 yards per game. Ja’Quinden Jackson leads the ground game with 509 yards, nine touchdowns, and an impressive 6 yards per carry.

Quarterback Taylen Green has thrown for 1,236 yards, but Arkansas ranks 103rd in passer rating. Green has five touchdowns and five interceptions. The Razorbacks are 16th in passing yards, averaging 283 per game. Andrew Armstrong leads the receivers with 420 yards on 29 catches. Arkansas is 5th nationally in third-down conversions, converting 55.4% of their attempts.

Arkansas’ defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 22nd nationally by allowing just 93.6 rushing yards per game. In their recent matchup against Texas A&M, they gave up 137 rushing yards on 36 attempts and allowed 163 passing yards.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 56.6% of their passes against Arkansas, averaging 226.4 passing yards per game. The Razorbacks rank 38th in the country, giving up 20.2 points per game.

Our projected score for this week six matchup between Tennessee and Arkansas is 35-25 in favor of Tennessee. Even though Arkansas comes in as the +13.5 point underdogs, we see them covering the spread.

With the over/under line sitting right at 60 points, our projection of 60 total points suggests that taking the under is the best play here.

No. 4 Tennessee, Rolling in All Phases, Takes Aim at Arkansas

A dominant Tennessee squad is averaging a national-best 54 points per game while allowing just seven per outing, the latter tied for second-best in the country.

Adding to Arkansas‘ woes is the fact that No. 4 Tennessee will be well-rested after a bye week.

The Volunteers (4-0, 1-0 SEC) will look to maintain their perfect start when they take on the Razorbacks in Southeastern Conference play on Saturday night in Fayetteville, Ark.

Volunteers Eager to Build on Momentum After Bye Week

Tennessee is coming off an impressive 25-15 road win against then-No. 15 Oklahoma on Sept. 21. With the bye week giving the team extra recovery time, the Volunteers feel ready to continue their dominant run.

“The bye week came at a good time, so I will just get my body feeling even better,” said Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson. Sampson has been a crucial part of the offense, rushing for 449 yards and ranking second nationally with 10 rushing touchdowns, trailing only Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty (13).

Despite their hot start, the Volunteers are fully aware that Arkansas poses a challenge, especially with the Razorbacks holding a three-game winning streak over Tennessee.

Nico Iamaleava Looks to Stay Composed on the Road

Redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava will face a tough environment in Fayetteville. So far this season, he has thrown for 892 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions while showing excellent composure on the road.

“The great thing about him at this point is his great competitive composure,” said Tennessee coach Josh Heupel. “He goes and plays the next play independent and free. He’s handled himself well on the road. He and the offense have areas to grow, and this game will be another big challenge.”

Tennessee’s offense ranks third in the nation with 565.8 yards per game, while their defense leads the country by allowing just 176 yards per game. The Volunteers haven’t trailed at any point this season, outscoring their first three opponents 191-13 before their win over Oklahoma.

Arkansas Faces Tough Stretch, Leans on Ja’Quinden Jackson

Arkansas (3-2, 1-1 SEC) is coming off a 21-17 loss to Texas A&M in a neutral-site game at Arlington, Texas. The defeat kicked off a brutal stretch for the Razorbacks, who are set to face three straight ranked opponents and five ranked teams in their next six games.

Standout running back Ja’Quinden Jackson has been a consistent force, rushing for 509 yards and nine touchdowns this season. However, Jackson was held to just 37 yards on 10 carries against Texas A&M, and the Razorbacks will need him to bounce back against Tennessee’s stout defense.

Taylen Green’s Struggles and the Razorbacks’ Offensive Woes

Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green has had an up-and-down season, passing for 1,236 yards, five touchdowns, and five interceptions. His decision-making under pressure has become a concern for Arkansas coach Sam Pittman, as Green has been sacked three times in four straight games.

“I think we’ve had so many pressures that we’ve got a lot of problems,” Pittman said. “We’ve got a confidence problem. We have a quarterback that’s not confident. There are times when he can stand in the pocket, and there are times when he stays in the pocket and gets hit.”

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Green’s standout performance came in a 39-31 double-overtime loss to then-No. 16 Oklahoma State on Sept. 7, where he threw for 416 yards. However, Arkansas will need him to perform at a high level if they hope to keep up with Tennessee.

Key Matchup and Season Implications

The Volunteers are heavy favorites, but the Razorbacks see Saturday’s matchup as a crucial turning point for their season.

“We’ve got a good football team,” Pittman said. “We’ve got to continue to work on how to win these games. I expect our team to be ready to play and our fans to support us with crowd noise and all of that.”

Arkansas is averaging 35.8 points and 495 yards per game, while their defense is allowing 20.2 points and 319.4 yards per game. Against a Tennessee team firing on all cylinders, the Razorbacks will need to play their best football of the season.