2024-25 NBA Steals Leader Odds and Predictions

As the 2024-25 NBA season tips off, one of the most exciting statistical races to watch will be the league’s steals leader. Steals can be inherently random, but there is some predictive value. With several top players known for their defensive capabilities, the race for the steals title is wide open.

This season, a range of dynamic defenders – from seasoned veterans to young rising stars – are set to battle it out for the top spot. Below, we’ll break down the NBA odds for each player vying to lead the league in steals per game, offering analysis of their chances and potential value for bettors.

2024-25 NBA Steals Leader Odds

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+550)

Coming off a stellar 2023-24 season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as one of the league’s top two-way guards. His ability to read offensive sets and disrupt passing lanes makes him a prime contender for the steals crown.

Shai averaged 2 steals per game last season. That was good for a virtual tie with De’Aaron Fox for the league lead, though Fox averaged 0.02 more steals per game. So, Fox won the steals crown despite the players having essentially averaged the same amount. Gilgeous-Alexander racked up 150 steals over the course of 75 games, while Fox stole the ball 150 times in 74 games.

Gilgeous-Alexander ranks among the top defenders in the league. At 6’6″, SGA has a significant size advantage over most opposing point guards, and he uses his length and ranginess to his advantage at both ends of the floor. The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to be one of the stingiest defensive teams in the sport again this year thanks to the addition of Alex Caruso, which should make life easier for Gilgeous-Alexander.

SGA’s +550 odds to lead the NBA in steals reflect the high confidence in his defensive prowess, making him a popular bet to lead the league in steals.

Marcus Smart (+550)

Marcus Smart, a former Defensive Player of the Year, remains one of the NBA’s most ferocious defenders. Known for his tenacity, quick hands, and leadership on defense, Smart has consistently been among the top players in steals per game.

Smart was one of the many Memphis Grizzlies to battle injuries last season. He only played in 20 games for his new team, and staying on the floor has been an issue for the Oklahoma State product. Smart has only topped 70 games once in the last 5 years. When he’s on the floor, the 30-year-old is still among the game’s premier perimeter defenders, and he takes pride in hounding opposing ball-handlers.

Smart still averaged an impressive 2.1 steals per game last year, which would’ve been enough to win him the steals title had he stayed healthy. That would’ve also been the highest average of his career, though, so it’s worth wondering whether he’d have been able to keep it up over the course of a full campaign.

Smart routinely averages nearly 2 steals per game, yet he’s surprisingly never won the steals title.

Smart is expected to take on a vital defensive role for Memphis, and the Grizzlies have aspirations of contending this season if their key players can stay on the floor. His ability to guard multiple positions and disrupt the flow of opposing offenses positions him as a strong contender for the steals title. His odds at +550 show that bettors and analysts alike believe in his consistency on the defensive end.

De’Aaron Fox (+650)

Known primarily for his offensive explosiveness, De’Aaron Fox has quietly improved his defensive game over the years. Fox’s quickness allows him to pressure ball-handlers effectively, leading to steals in transition.

As mentioned, he won the steals title in the 2023-24 season, showing that his defensive contributions are becoming more prominent. After all, his nickname is “Swipa,” appropriately.

Fox has averaged at least 1 steal in every season of his career, yet this past year was the first in which he cracked the 2 steals per game threshold. He nearly doubled his average from a couple of seasons ago (1.1). Could last year have been an anomaly?

With the Sacramento Kings entering the new season as a playoff threat, Fox’s role as both a scorer and defender will be critical. Although he’s not as renowned defensively as some others on this list, his athleticism and knack for creating turnovers make him a passable option with solid value at +650.

LaMelo Ball (+900)

LaMelo Ball’s combination of size, court vision, and defensive instincts makes him a unique player in this race. At 6’7″, Ball has the wingspan and agility to disrupt passing lanes and anticipate plays, leading to steals.

Although injuries have slowed him down in recent seasons, his defensive potential has never been in question. If Ball stays healthy, he could be one of the dark horse candidates for the steals title, especially with his Charlotte Hornets team looking to make a leap forward this season.

That ability to stay on the court – or lack thereof – could be crucial, though. LaMelo was outstanding when healthy last season – averaging 1.8 steals per game – but he only appeared in 22 games. That came after a 36-game 2022-23 campaign. In fact, Ball has topped 70 games played just once in his 4 NBA seasons to date.

Until he proves he can stay on the floor, he’ll make for an incredibly risky wager considering you need to play in at least 58 games to qualify for end-of-season statistical leaderboards.

His odds of +900 present an appealing risk-reward scenario for bettors looking for upside. He’ll have to prove he can stay healthy before I get too excited about betting on him, however.

Dejounte Murray (+1300)

Dejounte Murray has been a defensive standout since his early days with the San Antonio Spurs. Now playing for the New Orleans Pelicans, Murray’s defensive impact will likely continue to shine.

Murray racked up 1.4 steals per game last year, and he’s 3 years removed from leading the league with an average of 2.0. Like most other favorites for the steals title, Murray is incredibly tall and lanky (6’6″) for a guard, and he’ll typically be tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter scorer. As was the case in Atlanta, he’ll likely start next to a more traditional point guard – CJ McCollum – now that he’s in New Orleans.

Murray’s long arms and disruptive style of defense make him one of the more feared defenders in the backcourt. Given his established track record of generating steals as a former league leader in this category, Murray offers amazing value at +1300.

Murray has played in at least 66 games in every season since he was a rookie, so staying healthy shouldn’t be a concern.

Alex Caruso (+1400)

Alex Caruso has carved out a niche for himself as one of the league’s top defensive guards, known for his hustle, quick hands, and excellent anticipation. D

Despite playing a secondary role on offense, Caruso’s defensive presence for the Chicago Bulls in recent seasons has been invaluable. After an offseason trade to Oklahoma City, Caruso will play a featured role for what may be the NBA’s best young team.

He’ll slide into the starting unit next to Gilgeous-Alexander in what should be the league’s most tenacious defensive backcourt. Caruso has developed into one of the better defensive guards in the sport despite a relative lack of athleticism. He’s tremendous positionally and uses his strength to his advantage on that end of the floor.

His knack for reading plays and forcing turnovers has made him a staple in defensive metrics. Caruso’s ability to guard multiple positions and make impact plays on defense is well-documented, and at +1400, he represents an intriguing option with solid upside, especially if he maintains significant minutes for a stout defensive squad.

OG Anunoby (+1700)

OG Anunoby is one of the most versatile defenders in the league, capable of guarding positions one through five. His length and strength give him the tools to disrupt even the most skilled offensive players.

Anunoby won the NBA steals title back in 2022-23 with the Toronto Raptors after averaging 1.91 thefts per game. Interestingly enough, that was the fewest steals on average for an NBA steals leader since they started keeping track of this stat back in the 1973-74 season. Anunoby is the only winner to average less than 2 thieveries per game.

Now with the New York Knicks, Anunoby figures to play a massive role for Tom Thibodeau once again. Injuries were an issue for Anunoby toward the end of last season, but minutes shouldn’t be. Thibodeau is notorious for relying heavily on his starters, while Anunoby routinely played 35-plus minutes per night with Nick Nurse as his head coach with the Toronto Raptors. Anunoby logged just under 35 minutes per game in 23 regular-season games with New York and averaged 1.7 steals.

Hopes are sky-high in New York this year, and Anunoby teaming up with Mikal Bridges will give the Knicks one of the best defensive wing tandems in the sport.

With his continued defensive focus and the Knicsk emphasizing defense as part of their identity, Anunoby offers terrific value at +1700. If he remains healthy, his defensive consistency makes him a strong candidate to top the leaderboard.

Who Will Lead the NBA in Steals?

When considering the odds, the top value bets are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+550) and OG Anunoby (+1700).

Shai’s ascending two-way game – combined with his starring role on a young, defensive-minded Thunder team – gives him the best shot at securing the steals title. He was unlucky to lose out to Fox last year, but I’d be shocked if he didn’t finish at or near the top of the leaderboard again in 2024-25.

For bettors looking for a higher payout, Anunoby’s defensive versatility and proven ability to rack up steals make him a compelling long-shot bet. He won the steals title just 2 years ago, and I think the Knicks will be one of the NBA’s stingiest defensive teams again this season. Given his likely huge role, Anunoby is undervalued at +1700.

Ultimately, both players offer a blend of defensive talent and opportunity, making them the best bets to lead the NBA in steals for the 2024-25 season.

Bets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+550) or OG Anunoby (+1700)