Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders Picks and Predictions October 6th 2024

FOX will broadcast the week five AFC West matchup between the Raiders and Broncos from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. The Broncos are favored at -152 on the money line, and the Raiders are +126. The game is set for 4:05 ET, with the Broncos favored by -2.5 points. The over/under line is at 36.5 points. Both teams need to add their current records.

Las Vegas vs. Denver Key Information

• Teams: Raiders at Broncos
• Where: Empower Field at Mile High Denver
• Date: Sunday, October 6th
• Betting Odds DEN -152 | LV +126 O/U 36.5

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The Raiders Can Win If…

Despite falling behind 10-0 in the first quarter, the Raiders came back to tie the game at 10 going into halftime and eventually pulled out a 20-16 win over the Browns. Las Vegas took a 20-10 lead heading into the 4th quarter after a strong 3rd quarter performance.

The Raiders’ offense came alive in the 2nd quarter, with Tre Tucker finding the endzone on a 3-yard touchdown run and Daniel Carlson adding a 52-yard field goal. In the 3rd quarter, Carlson added another field goal, and DJ Turner scored on an 18-yard touchdown run. The Raiders improved to 2-2 with the win, and they covered the spread as 2.5-point underdogs in their 20-16 victory.

In their 20-16 win over the Browns, the Raiders’ offense struggled to move the ball through the air, finishing with just 116 passing yards. Gardner Minshew II went 14/24 for 130 yards, and the team was unable to find the endzone through the air. Las Vegas managed 152 rushing yards on 29 attempts, with Alexander Mattison leading the way with 60 yards, including a 24-yard run. Jakobi Meyers was the top receiver with 49 yards.

On the day, the Raiders had 17 first downs and 241 total yards. They were 2 times and went 33.3% on third down. Minshew finished with a passer rating of 73.

In their 20-16 win over the Browns, the Raiders’ defense allowed just 149 passing yards on 24 completions. Cleveland managed just 92 yards on 22 rushing attempts. Las Vegas defended the pass well, allowing only 4.7 yards per attempt and holding the Browns to a 30% third-down conversion rate. They also came up with three sacks and one interception.

The Raiders’ defense did give up one passing touchdown, as the Browns completed 75% of their passes. However, Las Vegas limited big plays and made things difficult for Cleveland in the passing game.

• Through their last three games, the Raiders have a record of 2-1. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Across Las Vegas’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 5-5. The team’s record vs the spread was just 6-3-1, in addition to an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Broncos Can Win If…

Despite not scoring until the 3rd quarter, the Broncos pulled out a 10-9 win over the Jets to move to 2-2 on the season. The Broncos were +8 point underdogs heading into the game, and with the 1-point win, they covered the spread. The game was low-scoring, with the combined 19 points well below the over/under line of 39.5 points.

The Broncos trailed 6-0 at halftime but took a 7-6 lead in the 3rd quarter on a 7-yard touchdown pass from Bo Nix to Courtland Sutton. The Jets retook the lead with a field goal early in the 4th, but Denver answered with a field goal from Wil Lutz with 8:59 remaining to secure the win.

The Broncos’ offense struggled in the passing game in their 10-9 win over the Jets, with just 60 yards through the air. Denver managed only 12 first downs and 126 yards on 31 rushing attempts. Bo Nix completed 12 of 25 passes for 60 yards and one touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 67.

Javonte Williams led the team in rushing with 77 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, while Courtland Sutton caught three passes for 60 yards, including a 29-yard touchdown reception. Denver converted only 21.4% of their third down attempts and didn’t take any sacks in the game.

In their most recent game, the Broncos’ defense came up with five sacks and held the Jets to just 184 yards passing in a 10-9 victory. The Broncos’ defense was tough against the run, allowing just 64 yards on 23 attempts. They also limited the Jets to a 23.5% conversion rate on third down and didn’t allow a touchdown.

Denver’s defense was also effective in generating pressure, winning the quarterback hit differential by 12 and coming up with five sacks. In the passing game, they allowed just 4.4 yards per attempt, and the Jets managed to complete only 57.1% of their passes.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Denver has a record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread sits at 1-2 in these matchups, while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
• The Broncos have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. This includes going 4-6 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 4-6.

Can Raiders Ditch Drama in Time for Trip to Denver?

The Las Vegas Raiders are preparing for a critical AFC West matchup against the Denver Broncos, but off-field distractions threaten to derail their focus. Head coach Antonio Pierce remains determined to keep his eyes on the game, despite recent turmoil involving star wide receiver Davante Adams. With both teams sitting at 2-2, Sunday’s clash in Denver could have significant implications for both franchises as they try to gain ground in a tightly contested division.

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Raiders’ Davante Adams Drama Looms Large

The biggest storyline for the Raiders heading into this week is the uncertainty surrounding Davante Adams. Reports emerged earlier in the week suggesting that Adams wants out of Las Vegas, adding yet another layer of drama to an already turbulent start to the season. The star wide receiver, who missed last week’s 20-16 win over the Cleveland Browns due to a hamstring injury, also did not practice on Wednesday, raising further questions about his status for Sunday’s game against the Broncos.

Adding to the intrigue, head coach Antonio Pierce “liked” an Instagram post implying Adams might soon be leaving Las Vegas. When questioned about the incident, Pierce quickly dismissed it, saying, “Yeah, I’m focused on Denver.” He further emphasized his focus on preparing for the Broncos: “I get paid here to get ready each and every week for the opponent. I don’t blink. I don’t flinch.”

While Pierce may remain undistracted, the Raiders will be tested as they try to leave these distractions behind and concentrate on a Denver team featuring one of the NFL’s toughest defenses.

Raiders’ Offense Without Adams

The absence of Davante Adams presents a major challenge for the Raiders. Adams is a cornerstone of the Raiders’ passing attack, and without him, the offensive outlook becomes far less certain. Denver’s defense, which has been stellar through the first four weeks, could make life difficult for a Raiders offense that has already struggled with inconsistency.

The Broncos rank third in the league in both points allowed per game (13.8) and passing yards allowed per game (146.0). This formidable defense could spell trouble for Las Vegas, especially if Adams remains sidelined. Without their star receiver, the Raiders must find alternative ways to generate offense.

One potential bright spot is rookie tight end Brock Bowers. Despite his limited NFL experience, Bowers has shown promise, currently sitting second among all NFL tight ends with 20 receptions and 216 receiving yards. However, he is still searching for his first touchdown and is coming off his quietest game as a pro, with just two catches for 19 yards against Cleveland. If Adams is unavailable, the Raiders will need Bowers to take on a bigger role, along with increased production from other skill players like Hunter Renfrow and Zamir White.

Broncos Looking to Snap Losing Streak vs. Raiders

The Denver Broncos have their own motivation heading into this game, aiming to snap an eight-game losing streak against the Raiders—a streak that dates back to 2020. Denver’s recent win against the New York Jets—a narrow 10-9 victory—featured a solid performance from wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who caught three passes for 60 yards, including the game’s only touchdown. Sutton remains unfazed by Denver’s struggles against the Raiders in recent years, stating, “The most important game is the one we’re about to get ready to go play. Whatever happened in the past is the past.”

The Broncos will also look to continue developing rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who is set to experience his first game in this storied rivalry. Nix threw his first career touchdown pass last week against the Jets, completing 12 of 25 passes for 60 yards. Though the numbers were modest, the experience gained from last week will be invaluable as Nix prepares for his first taste of the Raiders-Broncos rivalry.

Injury Concerns on Both Sides

Both the Raiders and the Broncos are dealing with significant injuries, which could heavily impact Sunday’s contest. Denver’s backfield may be without Tyler Badie, who missed practice on Wednesday due to a back injury, while safety JL Skinner was limited with an ankle issue. The Broncos will need their defense to maintain its impressive start, especially if they are forced to play shorthanded.

The Raiders are facing even more significant injury problems, with nine players missing practice on Wednesday and another three limited participants. Among those sitting out were defensive end Maxx Crosby (ankle) and linebackers Divine Deablo (oblique) and Kana’i Mauga (calf). Crosby’s absence would be a major blow to the Raiders’ defense, as he is one of their most effective pass rushers. Additionally, running back Zamir White was limited with a groin injury, which could further hamper the Raiders’ offensive depth.

Injury Report: Raiders Report - Broncos Report

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Broncos Defense vs. Raiders Offense Without Adams

The Broncos have been one of the NFL’s most effective defensive units this season, and they will face a Raiders offense that might be missing its biggest playmaker. Denver’s ability to shut down the passing attack and apply pressure on quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be critical. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers will need to step up, but the Broncos’ defense has proven capable of neutralizing their opponents’ passing options effectively.

2. Bo Nix vs. Raiders Pass Rush

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix will be put to the test by the Raiders’ defense, particularly if Maxx Crosby is able to play. Nix has shown promise, but he has yet to face a defense with a strong pass rush like the Raiders. Denver’s offensive line must provide Nix with enough time to make plays, as any lapse in protection could lead to costly mistakes.

3. Raiders’ Ground Game vs. Broncos Front Seven

With Adams potentially sidelined, the Raiders may have to lean more heavily on their rushing attack. However, Zamir White is dealing with a groin injury, leaving Las Vegas short on offensive options. Denver’s front seven will aim to take advantage of this situation by limiting rushing yards and forcing the Raiders into difficult third-down situations.

Prediction and Expectations

This AFC West showdown is crucial for both the Raiders and the Broncos as they look to gain an edge in the divisional race. The drama surrounding Davante Adams, combined with the hamstring injury that kept him out of practice, makes the Raiders’ offensive game plan highly uncertain. If Adams is unavailable, Las Vegas will need to rely on its depth—especially rookie tight end Brock Bowers and running back Zamir White—to carry the load.

Denver, meanwhile, has the advantage of playing at home and boasts one of the league’s top defenses. The Broncos have excelled at limiting points and yards through the air, and they will be facing a depleted Raiders receiving corps. With Bo Nix gaining confidence after throwing his first career touchdown pass, Denver’s offense will aim to do just enough to secure the win.

The key to this game will be which team can overcome its distractions and injuries more effectively. If Denver’s defense continues to play at a high level and Bo Nix avoids costly errors, the Broncos should have the upper hand. The Raiders, on the other hand, need quick answers on both sides of the ball, especially if Adams remains out.

In what could be a low-scoring, tightly contested matchup, Denver’s defense gives them the edge to snap their losing streak against the Raiders. Expect a defensive battle, with the Broncos ultimately taking advantage of Las Vegas’ off-field turmoil and injuries to come out on top.

The Lean

For this week five matchup between the Raiders and Broncos, we have the Raiders coming out on top by a score of 22-21. Even though the Broncos are the home team, our pick is to take the Raiders to cover the spread, as they are currently sitting at +2.5.

As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 36.5 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 43 points. This makes the over an attractive pick in this Raiders vs. Broncos matchup.