Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints Picks and Predictions October 7th 2024

Unbeaten Chiefs enjoying better fortune than 2-2 Saints

Monday Night Football on ESPN will feature the Saints and Chiefs, with the game kicking off at 8:15 ET. The Chiefs are the heavy favorite with a money line of -227, and they are -5 point favorites on the road. The over/under line is currently at 42.5 points.

New Orleans vs. Kansas City Key Information

• Teams: Saints at Chiefs
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City
• Date: Monday, October 7th
• Betting Odds KC -227 | NO +187 O/U 42.5

The Saints Can Win If…

The Saints’ most recent game ended in a 26-24 loss to the Falcons, dropping their record to 2-2 for the season. Despite the loss, New Orleans covered the spread as 2.5-point underdogs, with the combined 50 points going over the total line of 42.5 points. New Orleans missed a chance to win this one, as Alvin Kamara gave them a 24-23 lead with 29 seconds left in the 4th quarter, but the Falcons were able to kick a game-winning 58-yard field goal with 7 seconds remaining.

Heading into the 4th quarter, the Saints were trailing 20-17 before Kamara’s late touchdown. Taysom Hill scored twice for the Saints in the 2nd quarter to give them a 14-7 lead, and the Falcons tied it up before halftime and took the lead in the 3rd quarter.

The Saints’ offense had 25 first downs in their 26-24 loss to the Falcons, and they gained 315 yards on 63 plays. Despite not scoring any passing touchdowns, they did move the ball efficiently, with a 77.8% completion rate. New Orleans’ running game saw Alvin Kamara rush for 77 yards on 19 attempts, including one touchdown and a long run of 15 yards. Kamara also added 42 receiving yards.

Chris Olave led the team with 87 receiving yards on eight catches. The Saints’ offense was effective on third down, converting 53.8% of their chances, but they did take one sack and turned the ball over once on an interception.

In their 26-24 loss to the Falcons, the Saints’ defense gave up 227 passing yards and 88 rushing yards on just 15 attempts. They held Atlanta to a 36.4% third-down conversion rate and didn’t allow any passing touchdowns, although the Falcons did score 26 points.New Orleans’ defense also came up with one interception and limited the Falcons to 60% completions. They managed only one sack and came out even in the quarterback hit differential but did have two fewer tackles for loss than Atlanta.

• The Saints have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS, and posting an over-under record of 2-1.
• The Saints have gone 6-4 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, New Orleans went 7-3 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Chiefs Can Win If…

Despite falling behind early, the Chiefs came back to beat the Chargers 17-10, improving to 4-0 for the season. Ladd McConkey’s touchdown for the Chargers in the 1st quarter put the Chiefs down 7-0, and a Cameron Dicker field goal extended the deficit to 10-0. However, Kansas City fought back to tie the game at 10 going into the 4th quarter, and Samaje Perine’s touchdown sealed the win in the 4th.

Heading into the game, the Chiefs were 3-0, and they were on the road for this one. The over/under line was set at 41.5 points, and the teams combined for just 27. Kansas City was seven-point favorites in this one, resulting in a push against the spread.

Patrick Mahomes threw for 228 yards in the Chiefs’ 17-10 win over the Chargers, completing 65.5% of his passes. He threw one touchdown and was sacked three times. Mahomes was intercepted once and finished with a passer rating of 89.

Travis Kelce led the Chiefs with 89 yards receiving, while Kareem Hunt rushed for 69 yards on 14 attempts. Kansas City’s offense had 16 first downs and 245 total yards. They struggled in the running game, finishing with just 101 yards on 26 attempts.

In their 17-10 win over the Chargers, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 169 passing yards and 55 rushing yards on 24 attempts. The Chiefs held the Chargers to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down and came away with two sacks. Despite this, the Chiefs did allow one passing touchdown and gave up 224 total yards.Kansas City’s defense also won the battle in the trenches, as they had six more quarterback hits than the Chargers and three more tackles for loss. The Chiefs limited the Chargers to 16 completions on 27 attempts (59.3%).

• Kansas City will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-0-1 over-under mark.
• Across Kansas City’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 7-3. In these contests, the team went just 6-4 against the spread, while going 2-6-2 on the over-under.

The Lean

Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chiefs to cover as home favorites, as they are currently sitting at -5 point favorites. Our projected final score has the Chiefs coming out on top by a score of 21-15.

For this week five matchup between the Saints and Chiefs, we have a point spread pick and a projected final score. As for the over/under, with the line at 42.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 36 points.

NFL Expert Picks and Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs and New Orleans Saints enter their Monday night showdown in Kansas City under vastly different circumstances. Despite both teams facing adversity, their fortunes couldn’t be more contrasting. The Chiefs are riding high with an unbeaten 4-0 record, while the Saints find themselves at 2-2, ruing missed opportunities. The matchup brings into focus two teams facing different challenges: one with the ability to win close games and another that has struggled to finish strong.

Chiefs’ Resilience Amid Injuries: A Formula for Success

The Chiefs have found themselves in tight contests week after week, playing in four one-score games to start the season. Despite this, the reigning Super Bowl champions have emerged victorious each time, relying on a balanced team effort that has overcome injuries to key offensive players.

• Offensive Woes and Injuries: Kansas City’s injury list includes several high-impact players. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has yet to play, still on the non-football illness list, though his return to practice this week offers hope. Meanwhile, running back Isiah Pacheco (fibula) and wide receivers Hollywood Brown (back) and Rashee Rice (knee) are sidelined on injured reserve.”There’s not another Rashee,” Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said about Rice’s absence, “but there are other guys that are very good, so we’ll be fine.”
• Depth and Mahomes’ Trust: Despite these injuries, the Chiefs have managed to maintain productivity. Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who is averaging 17.1 yards per catch, has stepped up with two touchdown receptions. Tight end Travis Kelce, Kansas City’s leading healthy receiver, continues to be the cornerstone of the offense. Veteran wideouts Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster have also earned quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ confidence.”Those guys do it the right way,” Mahomes explained. “They’re always in the right position. They do what they’re supposed to do, and I think having those guys is a luxury because you know they’ll make plays when their numbers are called.”
• Defensive Backbone: While the offense hasn’t been as dominant as in previous years, ranking 14th in scoring offense (23 points per game) and total offense (328.3 yards per game), the Chiefs’ defense has played a vital role. Ranking 7th in scoring defense, allowing just 18 points per game, the defense’s ability to hold opponents has been crucial in maintaining their undefeated record.

Saints’ Late-Game Struggles: A Tale of Missed Opportunities

On the other side of the equation, the New Orleans Saints have shown glimpses of being an elite team, yet they’ve stumbled in critical moments. Starting the season with back-to-back dominant victories, the Saints now sit at 2-2 after squandering leads late in their last two games.

• Offensive Prowess, Defensive Frustrations: The Saints have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, currently ranked 1st in scoring (31.8 points per game) and 9th in yards per game (349.0). Early in the season, they demolished the Carolina Panthers 47-10 and followed that with a 44-19 blowout against the Cowboys. However, the last two games have been a different story.In Week 3, after the Saints took a late lead against the Philadelphia Eagles, they allowed a 69-yard drive, giving up a touchdown with just over a minute left. Philadelphia won 15-12. The following week, New Orleans scored a go-ahead touchdown with one minute remaining, only to watch the Atlanta Falcons march down the field and kick a game-winning 58-yard field goal with two seconds left, resulting in a 26-24 loss.”I’m encouraged that we’ve given ourselves an opportunity to win every single game,” Saints head coach Dennis Allen said. “We could be sitting here 4-0, but that’s not the case and that’s the discouraging thing.”
• Costly Mistakes: The Saints’ recent loss to Atlanta was particularly frustrating, as the defense didn’t give up a single touchdown. However, self-inflicted mistakes — including a muffed punt recovered in the end zone for a Falcons touchdown and a pick-six off a deflected Derek Carr pass — proved to be the difference. In addition, a defensive pass interference penalty set up Atlanta for the game-winning field goal.”When you want to be a good team you’re going to play in a lot of tightly contested games,” Allen said, “and we’ve got to find ways to win those things.”
• Injuries Impacting the Saints: Injuries have also contributed to the Saints’ struggles. Five starters, including tight end Taysom Hill (ribs) and center Shane Lemieux (ankle), missed practice this week. Kicker Blake Grupe (hip) and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. (hand) are also nursing injuries, complicating the team’s preparation ahead of the Chiefs matchup.

Chiefs’ Winning Formula: Execution and Experience

The Chiefs’ ability to win close games comes down to experience, discipline, and clutch performances from their core players. Mahomes, in particular, has benefited from a veteran supporting cast that consistently performs under pressure. Kelce, Watson, and Smith-Schuster have all been reliable targets in key moments, with Mahomes praising their precision and commitment to being in the right place at the right time.

This reliance on veteran leadership and smart football has allowed the Chiefs to remain undefeated, despite facing challenges on the offensive side. Their balanced approach — relying on both the offense and defense — has made them a formidable opponent, even if they aren’t producing the eye-popping numbers of previous seasons.

Saints’ Path Forward: Correcting Mistakes and Closing Games

For the Saints, the solution to turning their season around is straightforward but difficult: eliminate the late-game mistakes and protect leads. Dennis Allen’s team has shown it can compete with the best, but the miscues on special teams and in critical defensive moments have been costly.

Despite the frustrations, Allen remains optimistic, knowing that his team has had the opportunity to win every game. If the Saints can correct their errors, they have the offensive firepower to go toe-to-toe with any team in the league. Their upcoming game against the Chiefs will test their resilience and ability to learn from previous mistakes.

Outlook: A Clash of Contrasting Fortunes

The Monday night matchup between the unbeaten Chiefs and the struggling Saints presents an intriguing storyline. The Chiefs have proven adept at finding ways to win close games, even when not at full strength. The Saints, on the other hand, have struggled to finish games but remain a dangerous team with an explosive offense.

For New Orleans to reverse their fortunes, they’ll need to play mistake-free football and find a way to close out a game against a battle-tested Chiefs team. Meanwhile, Kansas City will look to continue their winning ways by leaning on their experience and balanced attack.

Conclusion:

As these two teams prepare to meet, the game will serve as a litmus test for both. Will the Chiefs continue their unbeaten streak, or will the Saints finally learn how to close out a game and avoid late-game heartbreak? One thing is certain: it’s set to be a thrilling matchup.