La Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions October 5th 2024

Shohei Ohtani primed for playoff debut in Dodgers-Padres NLDS

At 8:38 PM ET, the Padres and Dodgers face off in an NL West matchup. This one is taking place at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -137 compared to the Padres at +118. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

FS1 will be televising this game, and the Dodgers are currently on a five-game winning streak. They are 1st in the NL West with a record of 98-64, while the Padres are 2nd at 93-69. Dylan Cease is starting for the Padres, and he is facing off against Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers.

San Diego vs. Los Angeles Key Information

• Teams: Padres at Dodgers
• Where: Dodger Stadium Los Angeles
• Date: Saturday, October 5th
• Betting Odds LAD -137 | SD +118 O/U 7.5

The Padres Can Win If…

As the Padres begin their series against the Dodgers, they’ll be on the road, where they posted a 48-33 record this season, compared to 45-36 at home. San Diego went 62-43 as favorites and 33-26 as underdogs.

San Diego finished the regular season with an 85-79 run line record, including 51-30 on the road. As underdogs, they went 41-18 against the run line. The Padres’ games averaged 8.8 total runs this season, while today’s over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Their over/under record is 83-77.

Dylan Cease will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Dodgers on September 25th, Cease went five innings, giving up three earned runs on four hits. Before that outing, Cease had won three straight starts. His record for the season is 14-11, and he has an ERA of 3.47. Cease’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.07. Out of his 33 starts, Cease has turned in 16 quality starts, one shutout, and one complete game. The right-hander is averaging 10.65 strikeouts per nine innings.

San Diego’s offense has been one of the league’s best this season, as they are the top hitting team in the league and are 8th in runs scored at 4.7 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. They also have the league’s best team slugging percentage and are 7th in on-base percentage. The team’s top power threat is Manny Machado, who is 15th in the league with 29 homers and is 7th in the MLB with 105 RBIs.

Jackson Merrill has been swinging a hot bat for the Padres of late, going 8/24 in his last seven games. This stretch has helped him move into 2nd on the team in home runs, as he has 24 homers this season. Kyle Higashioka has also been swinging the bat well, with three homers and a .286 average in his last seven games.

• The Padres are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 3-6-1 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 4.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Padres are 6-4
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• San Diego has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Dodgers Can Win If…

As the Dodgers prepare to host the Padres in the opening game of their NL Divisional Round series, Los Angeles is riding a five-game winning streak. They finished the regular season with a 98-64 record, including a strong 52-29 mark at home and 46-35 on the road. As favorites, the Dodgers went 92-52 this year.

Los Angeles posted a 81-81 run line record this season, with a +0.9 average run margin at home and +1.1 on the road. Their over/under record is 90-68, while 84% of their games had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line.

Right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the start for the Dodgers today as he faces the Padres at home. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Yamamoto has a WHIP of 1.11 and opponents are batting .228 this season. In his 18 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Yamamoto’s last outing came on September 28th vs. the Rockies, where he got the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up an earned run.

Shohei Ohtani has been on an absolute tear for the Dodgers, going 27/43 in his last 10 games with six homers and 20 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .310 with 54 homers and 130 RBIs. Teoscar Hernandez is also a significant power threat in the lineup, as he has gone deep 33 times this season and is batting .272.

As a team, the Dodgers are 2nd in scoring at 5.2 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. They are also the league’s top power-hitting lineup, as they lead the MLB in slugging percentage and have the best OPS in the league. Overall, the Dodgers have the league’s best Isolated Power figure.

• The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Dodgers are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Los Angeles has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Dodgers have an average of 7.4 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Dodgers are 7-3
• Looking back across the Dodgers last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Los Angeles has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Dodgers have averaged 8.4 runs per game on offense

The Lean

We have the Dodgers as our projected winner in this one, and we are leaning towards taking them on the money line. As for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the under, as this is our 2nd highest projected game in terms of combined strikeouts. Looking at today’s starters, we have Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the better strikeout option over Dylan Cease.

The stage is set for a fiery National League Division Series (NLDS) matchup as the Los Angeles Dodgers, the best team in Major League Baseball (MLB) this season, take on the surging San Diego Padres. While both teams boast deep rosters and strong playoff resumes, all eyes are on Shohei Ohtani as he prepares for his highly anticipated playoff debut. The series, kicking off Saturday along the Pacific coast, promises drama, intensity, and historic moments.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

Dodgers vs. Padres: A Heated Rivalry Rekindled

The Dodgers and Padres have faced off multiple times this season, with San Diego making an impressive push in the second half. The Padres come into the series with a 43-20 record since the All-Star break, having swept the Atlanta Braves in the wild-card round. Despite finishing second to the Dodgers in the NL West, the Padres won the season series 8-5—marking the first time since 2010 that they’ve bested their divisional rival during the regular season.

Building on their recent success, including a series victory over the Dodgers in the 2022 NLDS, the Padres have shed the “little brother” label and now stand as a legitimate postseason contender. “We’ve been winning a lot of games against the Dodgers already, and we’re prepared,” said Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar, who had a career season with 24 home runs, 85 RBIs, and a .280 batting average.

Shohei Ohtani’s Playoff Debut: A Dream Realized

After an unprecedented regular season, Shohei Ohtani is ready to take the postseason stage for the first time in his career. Ohtani’s standout performance on September 19—where he collected six hits, three home runs, two stolen bases, and 10 RBIs against the Miami Marlins—punched the Dodgers’ ticket to the playoffs. In the process, he became the first player in MLB history to reach 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a single season.

For Ohtani, this moment is the culmination of a lifelong dream. “It’s always been my childhood dream to be able to be in an important situation, to play in important games,” Ohtani said through his interpreter, Will Ireton. “The excitement of that is greater than anything else that I could possibly feel.”

While the postseason spotlight will undoubtedly shine on Ohtani, it’s worth noting his impressive track record against the Padres. In 2023, he batted .326 with a .922 OPS against them and is 4-for-15 in his career against Padres’ Game 1 starter Dylan Cease, including two home runs.

Padres’ Confidence: The Dylan Cease Factor

The Padres will send right-hander Dylan Cease to the mound in the series opener. Cease, who posted a 14-11 record with a 3.47 ERA during the regular season, has been reliable, including a strong performance in the Padres’ wild-card series sweep of the Braves. Against the Dodgers, Cease has been effective, with a 3.38 ERA in two starts this season.

“We know Ohtani’s having a historic year, but we feel confident in our plan,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said, emphasizing that while Ohtani is a major threat, preparation and execution are key. Cease will need to bring his best against a Dodgers lineup that, despite injuries, remains potent.

Dodgers’ Health Concerns: Can Depth Overcome Injuries?

While Ohtani has been the picture of health following his elbow surgery, other key Dodgers players are dealing with injuries that could affect the series. First baseman Freddie Freeman has been sidelined since September 26 with an ankle injury, and starting shortstop Miguel Rojas suffered a groin injury just days before. Both veterans are expected to play, though neither will be at 100%.

The Dodgers’ pitching staff is also dealing with absences. Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw are both out, leaving right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to take the mound in Game 1. Yamamoto had a solid rookie campaign, going 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 18 starts, but his two previous outings against the Padres this season were shaky. In his MLB debut back in March in South Korea, he gave up five runs in just one inning, and in an April matchup, he allowed three runs over five innings.

Despite these setbacks, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts remains optimistic. “I think unfinished business is something that resonates with our guys,” Roberts said, alluding to the team’s recent playoff disappointments. “It’s an edgy group right now, which I think is a good thing.”

The Padres’ Momentum and Strategic Edge

The Padres head into the NLDS full of confidence, and with good reason. Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto are all producing at high levels, and Dylan Cease’s effectiveness gives them a chance to steal Game 1 in Los Angeles. Cease’s ability to neutralize Ohtani will be key to the Padres’ success.

Moreover, the Padres’ stellar play since the All-Star break, coupled with their recent playoff experience, provides them with a psychological edge. Their 2022 NLDS win over the Dodgers remains fresh in their minds, and as they seek to advance deeper into the postseason, they are not intimidated by the task ahead.

Series Outlook: High Stakes and Historic Moments Await

The Dodgers-Padres NLDS has all the ingredients for a memorable postseason series. Shohei Ohtani’s playoff debut is a storybook moment, capping off an incredible season, but the Padres, with their momentum and success against the Dodgers, pose a serious challenge. The outcome will depend not only on individual star performances but also on which team can best manage its injuries and execute in key moments.

With star power on both sides, an intense rivalry, and the unpredictability of October baseball, this series promises to deliver high drama, starting with Game 1. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts put it best: “We’ve got to go out there and be about it.” As Ohtani and the Dodgers look to realize their championship aspirations, the Padres stand in their way, ready for another upset.