Philadelphia Phillies vs Ny Mets Picks and Predictions October 5th 2024

Mets ride magical week into NLDS showdown vs. rival Phillies

From Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, we have the Mets and Phillies facing off in an NL East matchup. The Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -185, while the Mets are at +158. The over/under line is currently at 7 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 4:08 PM ET, and FOX is carrying it on TV. Kodai Senga is starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against Zack Wheeler. The Mets are 2nd in the NL East, and they have a record of 89-73, while the Phillies are 1st at 95-67.

MLB EXPERT PICKS, PREDICTION & BETTING TIPS

New York vs. Philadelphia Key Information

• Teams: Mets at Phillies
• Where: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia
• Date: Saturday, October 5th
• Betting Odds PHI -185 | NYM +158 O/U 7

The Mets Can Win If…

As the Mets prepare to face the Phillies in game one of their NL Divisional Round series, they’ll be on the road, where they went 43-38 this season, compared to 46-35 at home. New York posted a 59-39 record as the favorite this year, while going 32-35 as the underdog.

New York finished the regular season with an 84-81 run line record, including 46-38 against the run line on the road. As underdogs, they went 39-28 against the run line. The Mets had an over/under record of 83-77, and today’s line of 7 runs is well below their season average of 8.

Kodai Senga is on the mound for the Mets as they take on the Phillies on the road. Senga is coming off a win in his first start of the season, where he struck out 9 batters and gave up 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 7th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.7 runs per game. This is also where they are at in terms of home runs, as they have gone deep 207 times this season. The team’s top two power hitters are Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, who have 34 and 33 homers, respectively. Lindor is also the team’s leader in RBIs, with 91. Over his last 10 games, Lindor is batting .308, and he has two homers in this stretch.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor has been swinging a good bat of late, going 8/26 in his last seven games, with two homers. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo is on a six-game hitting streak but is batting just .190 over his last 10 games. Nimmo’s most recent homer came in the game before his current hitting streak.

• The Mets are 5-5 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Mets are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• New York has an over/under record of 4-6 in their last ten games.
• The Mets have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Mets are 4-6
• Looking back across the Mets last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• New York has gone 2-1 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Mets have averaged 3.4 runs per game on offense

The Phillies Can Win If…

As the Phillies prepare to host the Mets in game one of their NL Divisional Round series, Philadelphia will look to take advantage of their home field, where they went 54-27 during the regular season, compared to 41-40 on the road. The Phillies posted a 95-67 overall record this year, including 82-49 as favorites and 13-18 as underdogs.

Philadelphia’s games have averaged 9 runs this season, while today’s over/under line sits at 7, which is lower than 91.4% of their games this year. The Phillies have a 78-84 run line record and a 78-75 over/under mark, with the over hitting in their last five games.

Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces his former team, the Mets. Wheeler has made 32 starts this year and has a record of 16-7 with an ERA of 2.56. So far, he has turned in 26 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a homer. Wheeler’s ERA at home is 2.56, and he has a record of 10-3 at home. The right-hander has done well to limit walks this year, coming in at 2.34 per nine innings. Wheeler’s last outing came on September 28th, where he finished with a no-decision, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs.

As a team, the Phillies are 5th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.8 runs per game, and have been even better at home, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in the league in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the league. Philadelphia also does a good job of avoiding strikeouts and are near the top of the league in walks.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been a great 1-2 punch for the Phillies this season, as Harper is batting .285 with 30 homers, and Schwarber is hitting .248 with a team-high 38 home runs. Schwarber has two homers in his last six games but is just 5/23 (.217) in that stretch. Nick Castellanos has been hot of late, going 8/16 in his last six games.

• The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Phillies are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• Philadelphia has an over/under record of 8-1-1 in their last ten games.
• The Phillies have an average of 4.6 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Phillies are 3-7
• Looking back across the Phillies last five games as the favorite, they are 3-2
• Philadelphia has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Phillies have averaged 4.0 runs per game on offense

The Lean

Look for the Mets to come out on top as they take on the Phillies today, and we are leaning towards the under in this one. This game has the 2nd lowest combined runs projection and 2nd lowest total hits projection. Zack Wheeler is 3rd among today’s starters in projected strikeouts, but we still like Kodai Senga’s chances to work deeper into the game for the Mets.

As the New York Mets prepare to face their fierce rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies, in the National League Division Series (NLDS) this Saturday, they find themselves at the heart of what could be a storybook season. With a series of dramatic moments and clutch performances, the Mets are riding a wave of momentum as they look to continue their Cinderella run into the postseason.

Mets’ Unlikely Playoff Surge

The Mets’ journey to the NLDS has been nothing short of remarkable. Their season seemed on the brink of collapse when they were just 24-35 by June 2, but a determined second-half surge saw them finish with an 89-73 record. This improbable turnaround has captivated fans, as they now stand just a series win away from reaching the National League Championship Series (NLCS).

The latest chapter in their success came on Thursday night when they pulled off a stunning 4-2 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. Pete Alonso, who had been struggling through a 5-for-41 slump since September 19, delivered the critical blow by smashing a three-run, opposite-field home run off Brewers closer Devin Williams in the top of the ninth inning.

“You dream of moments like that,” Alonso said after the game. “You’re a kid, pretending it’s the playoffs, and you’re down by two runs. This is the kind of stuff you can’t put into words.”

Alonso’s homer capped off a comeback after the Mets had been held scoreless with only two hits through the first eight innings. Francisco Lindor sparked the rally with a leadoff walk, followed by Brandon Nimmo‘s crucial single, setting the stage for Alonso’s moment of heroism. The Mets added an insurance run when Starling Marte singled home Jesse Winker to secure the win.

This wasn’t the first time the Mets had stunned their opponents this week. On Monday, Lindor hit a two-run homer in the ninth inning to defeat the Atlanta Braves, securing their postseason berth. In Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, they rode a five-run fifth inning to defeat Milwaukee, though they stumbled in Game 2 before bouncing back.

The Rivalry Renewed: Mets vs. Phillies

Now, the Mets turn their attention to the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that finished six games ahead of them in the National League East and has consistently been one of the best teams in baseball all year. This will be the first postseason meeting between these two bitter division rivals, adding another layer of intensity to an already charged matchup.

The Phillies, with a 95-67 record, are one of the elite teams in the league. Their run differential (+113) was among the best in baseball, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, and Milwaukee Brewers. Having locked up a first-round bye, the Phillies have had time to rest and prepare, but the question looms: Will that rest help or hinder them?

Pitching Showdown: Wheeler vs. Senga

The series opener on Saturday will feature an intriguing pitching duel between two contrasting starters. The Phillies will send their ace, Zack Wheeler, to the mound. Wheeler, a former Met, is having a career year, finishing the regular season 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA and 224 strikeouts across 200 innings. His dominance has put him firmly in the NL Cy Young conversation.

Wheeler, while confident, admitted that the playoffs bring a different level of pressure. “You always get nervous,” Wheeler said. “But once you’re out there, you settle in and just focus on doing your job.”

The Mets will counter with Kodai Senga, the 2023 rookie standout from Japan. Senga’s season has been limited by shoulder and calf injuries, but he was a bright spot when healthy, posting a 12-7 record with a 2.98 ERA. His only start this season came on July 26 against Atlanta, where he allowed just two runs over 5 1/3 innings. The Mets are hoping that Senga’s limited work this year will catch the Phillies off guard, especially given his unique pitching style.

Momentum vs. Rest: Who Has the Edge?

While the Phillies have been resting for the past week, the Mets have been in the thick of the action, playing high-stakes baseball and carrying momentum into the NLDS. History suggests that rest isn’t always an advantage. Since MLB adopted its new playoff format in 2022, teams with first-round byes have often struggled in the divisional round. Of the eight teams that earned first-round byes in the past two seasons, five were eliminated in the NLDS, including the Phillies last year.

Momentum is clearly on the Mets’ side, but will it be enough to topple a Phillies team that has been near the top of the league all season? Recent history between these two teams suggests a competitive series. The Phillies won the season series 7-6, but the Mets have won three of their last four meetings, including a split in their high-profile, two-game series in London back in June.

Phillies’ Postseason Home Advantage

One thing working in the Phillies’ favor is their strong postseason track record at home. They boast an impressive 12-4 record at Citizens Bank Park over the past two postseasons. However, Philadelphia’s fans, known for creating one of the loudest and most intense atmospheres in baseball, have also witnessed their team falter on big stages. In last year’s NLCS, the Phillies held a 3-2 lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, only to lose the final two games at home.

The question remains: Will this year be different for Philadelphia, or can the Mets capitalize on their momentum and the Phillies’ lingering postseason scars?

A Showdown for the Ages

The Mets’ resilience and knack for the dramatic make them a dangerous opponent in this NLDS showdown. They have thrived under pressure, consistently delivering when their backs are against the wall. Meanwhile, the Phillies enter as the favorites but must shake off any potential rust from their extended layoff and live up to their billing as one of the league’s best teams.

With storylines of revenge, rivalry, and redemption swirling, this series promises to be one of the most captivating matchups of the postseason. As the Mets look to keep their magical run alive, the Phillies are out to prove that they’re not just contenders but champions in the making.

One thing is for certain—when these two teams meet, sparks will fly, and history will be written.