San Diego Padres vs La Dodgers Picks and Predictions October 8th 2024

At 9:08 PM ET, the Dodgers and Padres will square off in an NL West matchup. This one is taking place at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Dodgers are the slight underdog on the money line (+129). The Padres are favored at -151, and the money line odds for a win are 5/1.

Los Angeles has won five straight games and is 98-64 overall, while the Padres are 93-69. Michael King is starting for the Padres, and the Dodgers are going with Walker Buehler. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and FS1 will be televising this one.

Los Angeles vs. San Diego Key Information

• Teams: Dodgers at Padres
• Where: PETCO Park San Diego
• Date: Tuesday, October 8th
• Betting Odds SD -151 | LAD +129 O/U 7.5

The Dodgers Can Win If…

As the Dodgers prepare for game three of their NL Divisional Round series against the Padres, they find themselves on the road, with the series tied at one game apiece. Los Angeles finished the regular season with a 98-64 record, going 52-29 at home and 46-35 on the road. They’ve won five straight road games and hold a 5-game overall winning streak.

During the regular season, the Dodgers had a run line record of 82-82, with a +0.9 average run margin per game. On the road, their run line record was 41-40, compared to 41-42 at home. Their over/under record was 92-68, and today’s 7.5-run line is lower than 84.6% of their games this season. The over has hit in their last two games.

Walker Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers today as he faces off against the Padres on the road. So far this season, he has made 16 starts and has a record of 1-6 with an ERA of 5.38. Buehler’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.55. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going five innings and giving up one earned run on five hits. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Buehler has made three quality starts this year.

Shohei Ohtani has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 54 home runs are the 2nd most in the MLB. Ohtani is also batting .310 for the season and has gone 19/39 with three homers over his last nine games. Teoscar Hernández has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/34 with three homers in his last nine games. This has helped him move his season average up to .272.

As a team, the Dodgers are 2nd in scoring at 5.2 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. They have the league’s top OPS and slugging percentage, while also leading the league in isolated power. Overall, they are 3rd in home runs and have the MLB’s top on-base percentage.

• The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Dodgers are 3-2 vs. the run line.
• Los Angeles has an over/under record of 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
• The Dodgers have an average of 7.0 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten road games, the Dodgers are 7-3
• Looking back across the Dodgers last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• Los Angeles has gone 3-0 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Dodgers have averaged 8.4 runs per game on offense

The Padres Can Win If…

As the Padres prepare for game three of their series against the Dodgers, they’ll look to take a 2-1 lead in this best-of-five matchup. San Diego finished the regular season with a 93-69 record, going 45-36 at home and 48-33 on the road. They’ve won six straight home games and two in a row as the favorite.

San Diego’s run line record for the season is 86-80, with a home run margin of +0.1 compared to +1.1 on the road. At home, their run line record is 34-49. The Padres’ over/under record is 85-77, and 59.3% of their games have had higher totals than today’s 7.5 line. The over has hit in their last three games.

Michael King gets the start for the Padres today and is coming off a great outing vs. the Braves, where he didn’t give up a run in seven innings of work. In that outing, he had 12 strikeouts. King has made 30 starts this year and has a record of 13-9, along with an ERA of 2.95. Opponents are batting .217 off King this year. Out of his 30 starts, King has turned in 14 quality starts and is averaging 10.42 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, he has allowed a total of 17 home runs and is averaging 3.26 walks per nine innings.

San Diego comes into the game with the league’s top batting average at .263, and they are also the top home run hitting team in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5 runs per contest.

Manny Machado has been one of the league’s top power threats this season, as his 29 home runs are 15th in the MLB and the most on the Padres. He also comes into the game with a seven-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 12/33 with four homers. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill also have 24 homers this season, and Profar has a team-high 85 RBIs.

• The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games.
• Over their last five games, the Padres are 2-3 vs. the run line.
• San Diego has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
• The Padres have an average of 5.2 runs per game over their last five games.
• Across their last ten home games, the Padres are 6-4
• Looking back across the Padres last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
• San Diego has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
• In their ten most recent road games, the Padres have averaged 4.8 runs per game on offense

A Statement Win for the Padres

Sunday’s victory wasn’t just another game for the San Diego Padres—it was a statement. The team blasted six home runs, showing both offensive and defensive dominance, despite the unruly behavior of Dodgers fans. Outfielders Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. were targeted with thrown baseballs and beverage cans in the seventh inning, yet the Padres stayed focused, rallied together, and let their performance do the talking.

Manny Machado, the emotional heartbeat of this team, took the lead in calming everyone down before the eighth inning. His message? Simple but powerful: control your emotions, stay locked into the game, and let the scoreboard show who’s in charge. And the Padres delivered—surging ahead with six runs in the final two innings, four of which came from home runs.

Machado’s words, as relayed by pitcher Yu Darvish, included “some dirty words here and there.” But the impact was clear. Tatis, who smashed two homers in Game 2, added, “We just gathered up and told each other, especially Manny, to control our emotions. The game was on our side. We know what we’re capable of.”

A Golden Opportunity to Take the Series Lead

With the series now shifting to San Diego, the Padres are in a prime position to ride the wave of their home-field advantage. Padres fans are some of the most electric in baseball, and after the intense emotions of Game 2, they’ll be ready to fuel their team to another victory. With both Games 3 and 4 at home, San Diego has the chance to close out the series without ever having to return to Los Angeles.

This isn’t unfamiliar territory for the Padres. In 2022, they lost Game 1 of the NLDS to the Dodgers, only to win the next three games and punch their ticket to the National League Championship Series (NLCS). If they can replicate that magic again, a trip to the NLCS and a potential shot at the World Series could be right around the corner.

Pitching Matchup: Michael King vs. Walker Buehler

Game 3’s pitching showdown will be critical. Right-hander Michael King will take the mound for San Diego, bringing with him a postseason record that has fans excited. In the wild-card round, King delivered seven scoreless innings and struck out 12 batters in the Padres’ 4-0 win over the Atlanta Braves. He’s also been solid against the Dodgers this season, with a 2-0 record and a 3.10 ERA over four appearances (three starts). Overall, King has a 2.82 ERA in five career appearances against Los Angeles, proving he’s more than capable of taking on this challenge.

On the other side, Walker Buehler will start for the Dodgers. Buehler’s comeback season after his second Tommy John surgery has been rocky. He finished the regular season with a 1-6 record and a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts, but he’s shown flashes of his former brilliance, including a solid outing against the Padres on September 26, where he allowed just one run over five innings. Buehler has the postseason experience to step up, but his inconsistency this year will be a major storyline to watch.

Padres’ Offense: Unstoppable in Game 2

The Padres’ offensive explosion in Game 2 was a masterclass in power hitting. With six home runs, they completely overpowered the Dodgers, and at the heart of it all was Fernando Tatis Jr., who blasted two long balls and kept the Padres focused amidst the chaos in the stands. Manny Machado chipped in with his own home run, further proving why he’s not only a key offensive contributor but also the leader this team leans on when the pressure mounts.

If San Diego’s bats can stay hot, especially against a shaky Dodgers pitching staff, they have the firepower to overwhelm Los Angeles. The balance of power, patience, and taking advantage of the Dodgers’ mistakes will be the keys to success in Game 3.

Dodgers’ Struggles and Injury Woes

The Dodgers, who dominated the regular season, are suddenly facing some serious challenges in the playoffs. In Game 2, their top three hitters—Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman—went a combined 0-for-12. For a team that relies on its star power, that kind of performance is a recipe for disaster, especially in October.

Ohtani, usually a force at the plate, struck out twice, while Betts saw a potential game-changing home run robbed by Jurickson Profar in the first inning. To make matters worse, Freeman left the game in the fifth inning due to discomfort in his right ankle, an injury that’s been bothering him since late in the season. His status for Game 3 is uncertain, and his absence could leave a huge hole in the Dodgers’ lineup.

Betts expressed his frustration after Game 2, saying, “It’s really frustrating, but there’s nothing to do right now. You just have to keep going and hopefully it turns.”

What’s Next: Keys to Game 3

For the Padres, the formula is simple: stay focused, stay aggressive, and feed off the energy of the home crowd. Michael King will need to continue his postseason dominance, and the offense needs to stay hot, especially against a vulnerable Walker Buehler.

As for the Dodgers, they’re counting on their stars—Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman (if he plays)—to bounce back in a big way. The pressure is on Buehler to deliver a strong performance and give Los Angeles a fighting chance. If the Dodgers’ lineup continues to struggle, though, they could find themselves in an even deeper hole.

Key Players to Watch in Game 3

Padres:

• Fernando Tatis Jr.: After a two-home run performance in Game 2, Tatis is locked in and ready to keep making an impact.
• Manny Machado: A leader on and off the field, Machado’s performance at the plate and his ability to keep the team calm are invaluable.
• Michael King: Fresh off an incredible postseason start, King’s Game 3 performance will be crucial for San Diego.

Dodgers:

• Shohei Ohtani: A superstar who needs to snap out of his Game 2 struggles and bring the Dodgers’ offense back to life.
• Mookie Betts: After a tough Game 2, Betts will be looking to make a big impact in Game 3.
• Walker Buehler: With a shaky regular season behind him, Buehler must rise to the occasion and deliver in Game 3.

Padres Hold the Edge After Emotional Game 2

The San Diego Padres are riding high after their dominant Game 2 win over the Dodgers, and now, they have a golden opportunity to seize control of the series with Game 3 at home. With their fanbase behind them and momentum on their side, the Padres are in the driver’s seat. Meanwhile, the Dodgers need to regroup quickly if they hope to avoid falling into a dangerous 2-1 hole. The stakes have never been higher, and both teams know what’s on the line.

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The Lean

Our lean for an over/under pick would be to take the under, as this is our highest projected game in terms of runs scored. As for who we are leaning to take on the money line, we like the Dodgers to come out on top. Los Angeles is also projected to finish with more home runs than the Padres. Michael King is our highest projected starting pitcher in terms of strikeouts, but we still like the Dodgers to come out on top.