UFC Fight Night 244 Odds and Predictions

My MMA betting picks for UFC 307 were spot on, as I nailed the main event and went 4-1 overall on the main card. That alone would have had bettors feeling great, as I correctly predicted two underdog wins (and even vouched for a Pereira KO).

I only went 4-3 in the Prelims, but a couple of those losses were questionable Decisions. Still, a 7-4 overall record is a winning night, and hopefully you were along for the ride.

There’s more where that came from, as the UFC Fight Night 244 odds are live at most UFC betting sites and it’s time to place some bets. This week’s MMA action goes down at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the Prelims firing off on ESPN+ at 3:00 pm EST. You can catch the main card on the same channel, starting at 6:00 pm EST.

Ready to place some winning MMA bets? Let’s look over the main card first, starting with the latest UFC on ESPN+ 102 odds.

UFC Fight Night 244 Odds

Be sure to shop around for the latest UFC FN odds. Here are the prices at MMA betting sites:

The UFC is such a great MMA promotion and it’s painfully obvious how good Dana White and co. are when you get another stacked event after UFC 307.

UFC Fight Night 244 has a banger of a main event with Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira facing off, while the rest of the main card is filled with some savvy veterans and fighters looking to prove their worth.

The early UFC FN odds are pretty appealing from both sides of a lot of these matchups, but beauty (and betting value) is often in the eye of the beholder.

It really does depend on which side of each fight you prefer to be on, but I still think you’re going to be getting value across the board. But how should you bet? You can lean on some sports betting handicappers for this event, or you can just roll with my UFC Fight Night 244 picks.

UFC Fight Night 244 Main Card Predictions

The main event is without a doubt the big draw at UFC on ESPN+ 102. The big fights get started on ESPN+ at 6:00 pm EST.

Tatsuro Taira (-222) vs. Brandon Royval (+187)

The main event is an interesting one, as the 24-year old Taira puts an undefeated 16-0 record on the line. He’s climbed to #5 in the flyweight division in the UFC, racking up wins in a number of ways (5 Kos, 7 submissions).

Taira has been very impressive, going 6-0 in the UFC, and is fresh off of back-to-back TKO wins over the likes of Alex Perez and Carlos Hernandez. He does get a stiff test against Brandon Royval, but he has the edge in youth, reach (70 to 68) and has superior significant strike accuracy.

Of course, Royval is as battle tested as they come. The 32-year old is 16-7 for his career, but most of his losses have come during a 4-3 stretch over his last seven bouts. And they’ve come against elite talent like Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Moreno.

Royval remains a threat on the canvas (9 career submissions), and he is an aggressive fighter with 13 of his 16 wins coming inside the distance. He does lose the striking battle against Taira, who is clearly one of the rising stars in the industry.

Here’s the reality; Taira wins on the feet, and Royval wins on the ground. There’s no way of knowing how this fight plays out, so my preferred bet is to simply bank on this one ending early. 

That said, Taira is the more exciting fighter with a bright future ahead of him. If this fight stays standing up, I think he can get a knockout. 

Bet: Tatsuro Taira -222

Jun Yong Park (-175) vs. Brad Tavares (+150)

Jun Yong Park, aka The Iron Turtle, will attempt to rebound from a loss to Andre Muniz. He last fought in December of last year, so he might also have to shake off a little rust. His overall recent form is solid, though, as he’s 4-1 over his last five bouts and hasn’t been finished since 2021.

Park is a versatile fighter who can win in a number of ways, and has ended fights early in 11 of 17 wins. He has the edge in age, striking, and takedown accuracy, but he loses height and reach to Brad Tavares.

Tavares is a little more experienced at 20-9, and while he got TKO’d in February, he fought a little more recently than his opponent. His recent form is poor, however, as he’s just 1-3 over his last four fights, and he’s been finished early twice in that span.

He has a softer chin than Yong Park, as he’s been KO’d five times in his career. He also isn’t as much of a threat to end this one early, as 13 of his 20 wins have gone the distance. I think this one should be close, but Yong Park offers a little more upside. My favorite bet is for this one to go the distance, but I also like Park at his -175 UFC Fight Night 244 odds.

Bet: Jun Yong Park -175

Grant Dawson (-460) vs. Rafa Garcia (+360)

Grant Dawson is a huge betting favorite going into UFC on ESPN+ 102, as he has a mild reach edge (72 to 70), is considerably taller (by three inches), and has a significant striking advantage.

The man known as KGD is an impressive 21-2 in his MMA career, and he’s been a serious problem on the canvas with an insane 13 submissions. He’s been finished twice, but more often than not, he’s a really good bet to win and do so on the ground.

Dawson’s recent form is rock solid. He earned a Decision win in June of this year and he’s 4-1 over his last five fights. His lone loss is to the hard-hitting Bobby Green over that span.

The funny thing is Dawson is facing a similar opponent, as Rafa Garcia is also dangerous (8 submissions) on the ground. He’s 16-3 for his career, but unlike Dawson, has never been finished early.

Garcia got off to a slow start in the UFC, but he’s now 5-3 in the promotion, going 4-1 over his last five fights. I do think Garcia is live for the upset here, and his +360 price is alluring.

I’m going to go out on a limb and pick a massive upset here. Garcia looks to have the edge in striking, and he has a solid enough floor game that he can possibly match wits with Dawson there. You don’t want to bet on Dawson at his gross -460 odds, anyways. A fine secondary bet is for this fight to end via submission, too.

Bet: Rafa Garcia +360

Julia Polastri (-135) vs. Cory McKenna (+115)

This is a solid fight when it comes to value, as I’d argue that Julia Polastri should be a much bigger favorite. She did drop a tough Decision in her last fight this past June, but she’s otherwise looked good, going 12-4 overall and 4-1 over her last five bouts.

Polastri has a major reach advantage (63 inches to 58.5) and she also has been more dominant with strikes landed (5.45 to 3.00). She only has one fight so far in the UFC, though, so her sample size at this level is admittedly tiny.

McKenna is 3-2 in the UFC and 8-3 overall, but she got submitted in her last fight back in March. I wouldn’t hold that loss against her too much, but I do think the reach edge could be a problem for her, especially since Polastri is more experienced and a bit more versatile.

It’s worth noting that Polastri has never been finished, either. I like Polastri to win at this price, and a nice secondary bet is for this one to go the distance.

Bet: Julia Polastri -135

Daniel Rodriguez (-200) vs. Alex Morono (+170)

This is arguably the best fight of the UFC FN main card, if you ask me. You have two massive UFC names in Rodriguez and Morono, and neither of these dudes is an easy out.

Moreno has slipped in recent years, as he’s just 3-3 over his last six bouts. However, he remains as tough as ever. He has been KO’d three times in his career, though, so he’s not immune to being taken out.

Morono is a versatile fighter, but for the most part, he’s a likely bet to grind his way to a Decision win. That’s how he’s notched 10 of his wins, including four of his last five.

Daniel Rodriguez is an even tougher nut to crack. He’s been KO’s just once in his career and has 8 knockouts to his name. He isn’t a great bet to let this fight go the distance, as 12 of his 17 wins have seen things end early.

That said, the recent form for Rodriquez is troubling. After a 17-2 start to his career, he’s lost three in a row, including two by early stoppage. He’s the older fighter, although he does have the edge in reach, striking, and takedown offense.

While Rodriguez might have the skill-set edge, the recent form is worrisome. Getting a talented and gritty Morono at +170 feels like a steal.

Bet: Alex Morono +170

Abdul Razak Alhassan (-163) vs. Josh Fremd (+143)

This bout between Abdul Razak Alhassan and Josh Fremd wraps up the main card fights. Alhassan is the favorite in this one, but this one will be difficult to call, as both fighters have similar records and come in with suspect form.

Alhassan is certainly the more explosive fighter, though. He is far older and loses three inches in reach, while Fremd towers over him at 6 ‘4″. However, all 12 of Alhassan’s victories have come via KO and he does have the striking edge.

You’re getting an all-or-nothing fighter in Alhassan, so Fremd is live for the upset just because of the style he brings to the table. Still, Fremd only has four career KOs and of the two, he’s the less impressive fighter.

Alhassan feels like the play here, but I might shop around and go either for an inside the distance bet, or Alhassan to win via KO.

Bet: Abdul Razak Alhassan -163

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UFC Fight Night 244 Preliminary Card Predictions

Want to bet on the early action for this card? Don’t miss the Prelims, which hit the Octagon at 3:00 pm EST in Vegas.

Chidi Njokuani (-185) vs. Jared Gooden (+160)

The UFC Fight Night 244 Prelims card should make for solid entertainment, as this evenly matched bout can attest to. Chidi Njokuani (23-10) enters as a deserving -185 favorite, even though he’s gone just 1-3 over his last four fights.

He’s been quite the force throughout his career, racking up an insane 14 KO wins. He is a bit of a one-trick pony, but he is very aggressive and can close space extremely quickly. Of course, his fighting style does leave him open to getting slapped around (5 KO losses) a good bit.

Chidi Bang Bang has the height and reach edge here, so considering the way he fights, it’s easy to see why he is the favorite. That said, I can’t ignore Gooden, who has KO power (11 knockout wins), and has proven to be the more well-rounded fighter (7 submissions).

Gooden provides interesting value, as he’s in far better form (3-1 over his last four fights), and does grade out pretty well when looking at striking and takedown accuracy. I think playing both sides of this one could make sense, but I fear Chidi’s power too much.

I like Njokuani to win, but I’d also be hunting down his KO odds, as well as this fight to finish inside the distance.

Bet: Chidi Njokuani -185

Ramazonbek Temirov (-310) vs. CJ Vergara (+260)

This next bout isn’t expected to be nearly as tough to call, as Ramazonbek Temirov (17-2) is priced as the sizable favorite. He’s an exciting prospect at just 27 years of age and comes in with an imposing 15-2 MMA record.

Temirov has proven to be quite dangerous (6 KO wins) and has displayed a strong chin and stellar defense, with just one early stoppage coming against him. He’s also on fire, coming into his UFC debut riding a 9-fight winning streak.

It’s always tough to trust a massive favorite in their promotion debut, but CJ Vergara looks like a one-dimensional tune-up opponent. Vergara can get the job done (7 KOs), but he’s not especially versatile. He’s also just 3-3 in the UFC and has just one KO to his name in this promotion.

I wouldn’t completely dismiss Vergara, but I think this is a mismatch and the odds arguably tell us all we need to know.

Bet: Ramazonbek Temirov -310

Jonathan Pearce (-150) vs. Pat Sabatini (+130)

If I was ranking my top 5 fights going into UFC on ESPN+ 102, this showdown between Jonathan Pearce (14-6) and Pat Sabatini (18-5) would make the cut.

Pearce is the mild betting favorite, as he is a bit taller and has a slight edge in reach. He’s also been quite a dangerous fighter, as evidenced by his 9 career KOs. He’s on a mini slide after losing to Joanderson Brito and David Onama, but he will be looking to right the ship.

Considering Pearce has the clear advantage in significant strikes landed per minute and takedown accuracy, I can see why he’s favored. However, Sabatini is the more feared canvas artist (11 career submissions), and actually grades out as the more efficient striker by quite a bit.

Ultimately, I have a lean toward Sabatini. He isn’t the type of guy Pearce can have his way en route to a ground and pound, and he might be able to hold his own from a striking perspective. If this fight gets to the floor, though, it’s Sabatini’s to lose.

This card has a lot of nice prices, and it all comes down to picking our spots. This is one fight where I like rolling with the underdog. Sabatini to win via submission is a fine secondary bet, too.

Bet: Pat Sabatini +130

Themba Gorimbo (-315) vs. Niko Price (+265)

From a tight contest to a possible blowout, we go. Niko Price did score an impressive Decision win against Alex Morono in his last bout, but he’s just 2-3 over his last five fights.

Price also grades out poorly when compared to his opponent when it comes to significant strikes landed per minute, striking accuracy, and takedown accuracy. He has an explosive resume (10 career KOs), but he’s also been KO’d five times and hasn’t stopped anyone early since 2019.

Price’s best days may very well be behind him, while Themba Gorimbo (13-4) is a pretty tough customer. He has a versatile skill-set, and is simply not going to be an easy guy to crack. 

Gorimbo’s form is superior, as he’s won three in a row. He has the height and reach edge by just a bit, too. I do think it’s possible this fight is closer than the odds suggest, but Gorimbo is too tough and too skilled to be stopped early. I think we get a Decision, and that will favor Gorimbo in this bout.

Bet: Themba Gorimbo -315

Junior Tafa (-400) vs. Chris Barnett (+300)

Here’s another fight that is a bit out of control when it comes to price, as Junior Tafa (5-3) is not very experienced, but has serious KO ability. All five of his wins have come via knockout, so while he’s just 1-3 so far in the UFC, you have to respect his power.

Tafa is the much younger fighter here (by a decade), but he does lose three inches in reach despite being much taller than Chris Barnett. There’s no denying Barnett’s power, either. He may be 38 years old at this point, but he has an astonishing 18 career knockouts for a reason.

Barnett’s recent form is a bit suspect, as he’s just 2-2 over his last four fights. However, he still brings it, as he has two TKO wins in that span. Given Tafa’s struggles in the UFC to this point, I love the idea of gambling on Barnett as a +300 dog.

There’s no denying he isn’t a physical marvel and that he’s one-dimensional, but if his punches land, he’s about as live of an underdog as anyone on this card.

Bet: Chris Barnett +300

Cody Haddon (-190) vs. Daniel Argueta (+165)

This pricing is a bit more palatable, which brings us back to a bout that won’t be easy to get right. Cody Haddon (7-1) enters with a nearly perfect record, with the only blemish on his MMA resume being a tough Decision loss to Steve Erceg back in 2021.

Erceg is a tough nut to crack, so I don’t personally hold that loss against Haddon, who has displayed solid striking (5 KOs) and nice toughness. He’s a skilled fighter who could be quickly on the rise if he can take care of business in his UFC debut.

It won’t be easy, of course, as Daniel Argueta (9-2) is a versatile opponent with better takedown accuracy and more experience in the promotion. He has run into some trouble with his fights, however, as he’s scored just one win in his last five bouts.

Haddon’s star is on the rise, and this feels like a good time to hop aboard the hype train. The good news is his -190 odds are light enough that we can just bet on him straight up.

Bet: Cody Haddon -190

Clayton Carpenter (-188) vs. Lucas Rocha (+163)

Lastly, we have another close fight between Clayton Carpenter (7-0) and Lucas Rocha (17-1). There is just one loss between these two gentlemen, so good luck feeling good about who you end up betting on.

Carpenter is the mild favorite because he’s yet to lose, but he also has three inches in height and four inches in reach. Carpenter had an impressive submission win in his UFC debut in February of 2023, so the long layoff is a mild concern, but he does have a nice skill-set.

Rocha is obviously way more experienced overall, but it’s worth noting that this will be his debut under the UFC banner. He has 10 KO wins to his name and also has a versatile skill-set, so he absolutely has a shot here.

I do like Rocha’s price, but I am trusting in the talent here. Neither fighter has fought since 2023, so the layoff issue is a wash. Tie goes to the undefeated kid who can be an absolute menace.

While I love him as a straight up UFC Fight Night 244 pick, I’d also look for a wager for this one to finish inside the distance.

Bet: Clayton Carpenter -188

UFC Fight Night 244 Fight Card