Denver Broncos vs L.A. Chargers Picks and Predictions October 13th 2024

Defensive-minded Broncos, Chargers square up for slugfest

The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are gearing up for a pivotal Week 6 AFC West showdown, with both teams coming into the game leaning heavily on their formidable defenses. With the Broncos (3-2) fresh off a momentum-boosting win over the Raiders and the Chargers (2-2) returning from a bye, this matchup is expected to be a slugfest where defensive plays may determine the outcome.

Broncos Riding High After Breaking Raiders Curse

The Broncos are on a high after their 34-18 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, snapping an eight-game losing streak against their rivals. This win pushed Denver to second place in the AFC West, and they’re aiming for their fourth consecutive victory over the Chargers. Their 34-point output was the highest since 2021, signaling potential offensive growth, but the real story of Denver’s success remains their defense.

Chargers Under New Leadership, Looking to Rebound

The Chargers come into Week 6 following a much-needed bye week, eager to get back on track after back-to-back losses. New head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team has been inconsistent, especially on offense, where injuries and penalties have slowed their progress. Harbaugh’s focus is on improving the team’s overall crispness, particularly in offensive execution.

“We’re not where we want to be. We want to be 4-0, but we’re 2-2,” Harbaugh said, highlighting his desire for the team to execute at a higher level in all phases of the game.

Defensive Dominance: The Key to Victory

Defense will be the central theme in this matchup. The Broncos are allowing just 11.8 points per game since Week 1 and have been stellar in taking away the ball, with eight turnovers on the season. Meanwhile, the Chargers boast the league’s best scoring defense, allowing only 12.5 points per game.

Denver’s defense is led by standout cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who earned NFL Defensive Player of the Week honors after a game-sealing 100-yard interception return against the Raiders. He’s also being mentioned as a potential NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate. However, Surtain remains focused on improving each week, saying, “It is a little early for end-of-season awards.”

For the Chargers, their defense is anchored by star players like Joey Bosa, though Bosa’s availability is in question due to injury. The team’s defense has thrived on takeaways, currently tied for third in the league with a plus-five turnover differential.

Offensive Struggles Continue for Both Teams

While both defenses are thriving, the same can’t be said for the offenses. Denver rookie quarterback Nix has managed three consecutive wins but has struggled to consistently move the ball through the air, averaging just 168.3 passing yards per game—30th in the NFL. Despite these limitations, Nix has protected the ball well, going 78 consecutive passes without an interception in his last three starts.

Head coach Sean Payton prefers a run-first approach, and it’s been effective at times, with the Broncos rushing for over 100 yards in each of their past three wins. However, Payton acknowledged the need to open up the passing game more to keep defenses from stacking the box.

“We’ve got to take more shots downfield,” Payton said. “We can’t be one-dimensional if we want to keep winning.”

On the other side, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been battling a high ankle sprain that has limited his mobility and effectiveness in recent weeks. He’s been practicing with his ankle wrapped and was limited in practice ahead of the game. Despite the injury, Herbert remains the focal point of the offense, but the Chargers’ production has dipped significantly. They’ve managed just two touchdowns in their past 10 quarters, with the running game that carried them through the first two weeks grinding to a halt.

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Injuries Impacting Both Sides

Injuries are playing a key role for both teams. For the Broncos, offensive tackle Alex Palczewski, center Luke Wattenberg, and receiver Josh Reynolds have all missed practice, which could affect their offensive line and passing attack.

The Chargers are dealing with their own injury woes. In addition to Bosa’s uncertain status, key defensive backs like Asante Samuel Jr., Deane Leonard, and Kristian Fulton are also sidelined with injuries, potentially leaving their secondary vulnerable to big plays.

Key Factors for Success

Both teams need to clean up their offensive performances to have a chance in this game. For Denver, the focus will be on maintaining balance with a stronger passing game to complement their rushing attack. Nix has shown poise in managing the game, but more will be required against a tough Chargers defense.

For the Chargers, Herbert’s health is the X-factor. If he’s able to play effectively, Los Angeles could challenge Denver’s defense through the air. The Chargers will also need to avoid the penalties and missed assignments that have plagued them in recent weeks.

The Importance of Turnovers

In a game expected to be low-scoring, turnovers could be the deciding factor. Denver has been one of the best in the league at forcing turnovers, and Los Angeles isn’t far behind. With both offenses struggling to sustain long drives, a key interception or fumble recovery could swing the game in either team’s favor.

What’s Next for Both Teams?

After this Week 6 clash, both teams face challenging stretches. The Broncos will hit the road for three of their next four games, including a primetime matchup against the New Orleans Saints in Week 7. Meanwhile, the Chargers will head to Arizona for a Monday Night Football showdown with the Cardinals.

Final Thoughts: Who Has the Edge?

This game is shaping up to be a classic defensive battle where both teams will likely grind for every yard. Denver’s home-field advantage and recent momentum give them a slight edge, but the Chargers, with extra rest and Harbaugh’s strategic mindset, shouldn’t be counted out. The game may come down to which defense can capitalize on mistakes, and which offense can make just enough plays to escape with the win.

Broncos vs. Chargers could easily be a slugfest defined by big defensive plays, turnovers, and clock control, making it a must-watch AFC West showdown.