Kentucky Wildcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores Picks and Predictions October 12th 2024

SEC Network will be covering the Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Kentucky Wildcats matchup, set to kick off at 7:45 ET from Kroger Field in Lexington. Both teams enter this one with a 3-2 record, and the Wildcats are the -13.5 point favorites at home. The over/under line is currently at 46.5 points.

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Key Information

Vanderbilt enters Week 7 against Kentucky with a 3-2 record. They rank 41st in our power rankings and have a 54.3% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. So far, they are 1-0 at home and 0-1 on the road this season.

The Commodores have been favored in just one of their five games, and their average scoring margin is +12 points per game. Against the spread, they are 1-1, with a 1-0 record at home and 0-1 on the road.

Vanderbilt’s over/under record is 2-0, with their games averaging 63.2 points. Their average over/under line has been 49.8 points, and this week’s line is set at 46.5 points.

Vanderbilt’s offense has been strong heading into week 7, ranking 15th in our offensive power rankings and scoring 37.6 points per game, placing them 20th nationally. Quarterback Diego Pavia has a passer rating of 121, with 973 passing yards and eight touchdowns without an interception. Vanderbilt ranks 9th in passer rating and 17th in third down conversions, converting 49.3% of their attempts.

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Vanderbilt is averaging 169.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 26th in rushing attempts. Sedrick Alexander leads the team with 281 rushing yards and five touchdowns, averaging 3 yards per carry. Quincy Skinner Jr. has 170 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 25.6 points per game this season, ranking 48th nationally. In their recent game against Alabama, they gave up 35 points but managed to secure a 40-35 win. The defense allowed 396 total yards, including 310 passing yards, while also forcing one interception.

Opponents have averaged 231.6 passing yards per game against Vanderbilt, completing 63.1% of their passes. On the ground, Vanderbilt has allowed just 115.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 41st in the country. They’ve faced an average of 30.2 rushing attempts per game, which is the 24th fewest nationally.

Kentucky enters Week 7 with a 3-2 record, ranked 25th in our power rankings. They have a 79% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but no shot at winning the Southeastern, according to projections. At home, they are 2-2, while they are 1-0 on the road this season.

The Wildcats have gone 4-1 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +8.6 points per game. They are 3-1 ATS at home and 1-0 on the road, covering twice as favorites and twice as underdogs.

Kentucky’s over/under record is 1-4, with their games averaging 35.4 points. This week’s line is 46.5 points, slightly above their average line of 46 points, and they’ve seen three games with higher totals and four with lower ones.

Heading into week 7, Kentucky’s offense ranks 60th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 22 points per game, placing them 77th nationally. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff has thrown for 793 yards, with a passer rating of 87, and has completed 59.8% of his passes. He has four touchdowns and two interceptions this season.

Kentucky ranks 112th in passing yards per game, averaging 170.4 yards, and they are 74th in passing attempts. On the ground, they average 152.8 rushing yards per game. Demie Sumo-Karngbaye leads the rushing attack with 321 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Dane Key is the leading receiver with 369 yards and one touchdown.

Kentucky’s defense has been impressive this season, ranking 9th nationally by allowing just 13.4 points per game. They’ve given up only 79.2 rushing yards per game, the 6th fewest in the country, on 26.8 attempts per game, which is the 10th fewest. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged a 62.6% completion rate and a passer rating of 80.4, with Kentucky allowing 166 passing yards per game, ranking 25th nationally.

In their recent game against Ole Miss, Kentucky’s defense allowed 17 points but managed to keep the Rebels out of the end zone through the air. Ole Miss ran the ball 41 times for 140 yards, while Kentucky’s secondary gave up 285 passing yards on 14 completions.

Our projections have Kentucky winning this matchup 30-14, which is right in line with the current point spread of -13.5 in favor of Kentucky. We expect them to cover as the home favorite.

With the over/under line set at 46.5 points, our analysis suggests that taking the under is the best play, as our projections have these teams combining for 44 points.

Resurgent Vanderbilt Poses Tough Test for Kentucky

Two teams coming off monumental victories will square off on Saturday night in Lexington, Ky., as Kentucky hosts Vanderbilt in an exciting Southeastern Conference matchup. Both teams are riding high after pulling off significant upsets and will be eager to continue their momentum as they face each other in what promises to be a competitive clash.

Vanderbilt Riding High After Stunning Win Over Alabama

Vanderbilt (3-2, 1-1 SEC) made headlines last week with the biggest win in the program’s history, defeating then-No. 1 Alabama 40-35. The Commodores delivered a near-flawless performance against one of the SEC’s powerhouses, making a statement that they should not be taken lightly as the season progresses.

Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia was efficient and composed in the victory, completing 16 of 20 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns. Pavia also contributed on the ground, rushing for 56 yards. Crucially, Vanderbilt did not turn the ball over, and their ability to control possession was key to their success, holding the ball for just over 42 minutes.

Vanderbilt’s offense clicked on all cylinders, and their defense stepped up when it mattered most, limiting Alabama’s chances and frustrating their offensive attack. The Commodores are looking to build on that success as they head into Lexington to face another tough opponent.

“We’ve got to double down on our technique, double down on what we do regardless of who we play,” said Vanderbilt running back Sedrick Alexander, emphasizing the importance of consistency moving forward.

Kentucky’s Resilience After Defeating Ole Miss

Kentucky (3-2, 1-2 SEC) is also coming off a stunning victory, having taken down then-No. 6 Ole Miss 20-17 on the road in Oxford, Miss. The Wildcats showed resilience and toughness to secure the win, with quarterback Brock Vandagriff having his best performance of the season. Vandagriff threw for 243 yards and a touchdown, leading the Wildcats’ offense to a much-needed victory.

On the defensive side, Kentucky held Ole Miss to just 353 yards, displaying the grit and determination that has defined their season. The Wildcats’ defense has been a strong point all year, allowing just 13.4 points per game, which ranks them 11th nationally in points allowed.

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops knows his team has grown since their early-season struggles, including a 31-6 loss to South Carolina in their conference opener. But Stoops also understands that Vanderbilt, coming off a program-defining win, is a much-improved squad.

“Coming into this press conference, I don’t have to work about selling Vanderbilt anymore and telling you how good they are,” Stoops said, acknowledging the impressive job Commodores head coach Clark Lea has done with the team.

Key Matchup: Vanderbilt’s Offense vs. Kentucky’s Defense

The most intriguing battle in this game will be Vanderbilt’s resurgent offense going up against Kentucky’s stingy defense. Vanderbilt has shown they can execute at a high level, especially with Pavia leading the offense and utilizing option-based plays that confused Alabama last week.

Tight end Eli Stowers has been a dynamic weapon for Vanderbilt, catching 25 passes for 333 yards this season and even throwing for a touchdown. Stowers played a crucial role in last week’s win, and his versatility will be something Kentucky’s defense will need to be prepared for.

On the flip side, Kentucky boasts one of the nation’s best defenses, anchored by defensive tackle Deone Walker, who stands at 6-foot-6 and 345 pounds. The Wildcats also feature experienced edge players in D’Eryk Jackson, who leads the team with 26 tackles, and J.J. Weaver, who has recorded three sacks on the season. In the secondary, cornerback Maxwell Hairston is a playmaker who had two pick-6s against Vanderbilt last season.

Kentucky’s defense will aim to slow down Vanderbilt’s option offense and limit their time of possession, something Alabama struggled to do. If the Wildcats can force Pavia into difficult situations and contain Stowers, they will have a strong chance of controlling the game.

Kentucky’s Offensive Opportunities

While Kentucky’s defense will be a focal point, their offense will also need to step up, especially against a Vanderbilt defense that has had its fair share of struggles. The Wildcats’ receiving corps, led by Dane Key, Barion Brown, and Ja’Mori Maclin, will look to exploit a Vanderbilt secondary that has had trouble containing athletic wideouts.

However, Kentucky’s offense has had issues protecting the quarterback, allowing 15 sacks through five games. Vandagriff, who has thrown four interceptions this season, will need to be mindful of a Vanderbilt defense that forced two turnovers against Alabama, including a Randon Fontenette pick-6.

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Despite these concerns, Kentucky’s offensive firepower could cause problems for Vanderbilt’s defense, especially if the Wildcats’ offensive line can give Vandagriff enough time to connect with his talented receivers. The Wildcats have the weapons to put up points, but they will need to avoid costly turnovers and protect the ball.

A Test of Consistency

Both teams have shown they can pull off upsets, but the key for each will be consistency. Vanderbilt’s monumental win over Alabama proved they can hang with the best, but the Commodores will need to maintain that level of play if they hope to take down another strong SEC opponent.

For Kentucky, the win over Ole Miss provided a confidence boost, but the Wildcats must continue to improve and eliminate mistakes if they want to stay competitive in the conference. Head coach Mark Stoops has emphasized the need for his team to stay focused and build on the momentum from last week.

What’s at Stake

With both teams sitting at 3-2 and looking to climb the SEC standings, Saturday’s matchup is crucial for determining their paths forward. A win for Vanderbilt would cement their resurgence and mark back-to-back wins over top SEC programs, while a Kentucky victory would help the Wildcats establish themselves as contenders in the conference.

As the SEC season intensifies, this matchup between two teams on the rise promises to be a hard-fought battle. Both squads have proven they can compete with the best, and Saturday’s game will be a test of which team can continue its winning ways.