2024-25 NBA Scoring Leader Odds and Predictions

The bout for the NBA scoring title is one of the most hard-fought battles in the league every year. Scoring has been steadily on the rise leaguewide in recent years, and there’s no reason to expect the offensive boon to subside any time soon. For just the 2nd time in league history, the scoring title winner has averaged at least 30 points per game in each of the last 9 seasons.

Last year, Luka Doncic won his first career scoring title after averaging a career-best 33.9 points per game. Joel Embiid had his streak of 2 straight scoring crowns snapped. As you’d expect, both players are expected to rank among the league leaders in scoring again this year. The race for the scoring crown is wide open, though, and it’s never too early for you to get those NBA bets placed.

Below, we’ve broken down the latest odds for the 2024-25 NBA scoring leader. Whether you’re considering a safe bet on a proven scorer or looking for a long-shot underdog, these odds reflect the current landscape of NBA scoring potential for the upcoming season. Ready to make your pick? Let’s dive into the numbers.

2024-25 NBA Scoring Leader Odds

The following NBA 6th Man of the Year odds can be found at the best NBA betting sites:

NBA Scoring Leader Favorites

The following NBA superstars are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2024-25 NBA Scoring title, according to the top sportsbooks and handicappers:

Luka Doncic (+140)

Luka Doncic enters the 2024-25 season as the clear favorite to lead the NBA in scoring yet again, carrying +140 odds. Doncic’s remarkable 2023-24 campaign saw him average 33.9 points per game, which was enough to lead the league.

His scoring arsenal is incredibly diverse, ranging from deep 3-pointers to crafty finishes in the paint. Luka has an elite ability to read defenses, which helps him manipulate defenders and get to his preferred spots on the court. Additionally, his ball-handling and passing skills force teams to stay honest, often leaving him with single coverage in isolation. Doncic’s role as the primary scorer and facilitator for the Dallas Mavericks, combined with his high usage rate (36.6%, 2nd-highest in the NBA), suggests he’s likely to sustain or improve his output this season.

Another factor favoring Luka is the offensive scheme in Dallas. As the focal point of the Mavericks’ offense, Luka dictates the pace and flow of the game, and his high volume of shot attempts—averaging 23.6 field goal attempts per game last season—ensures ample opportunities to score. His shooting efficiency also backs up his scoring prowess, with Doncic hitting 48.7% of his shots from the field and a solid 38.2% from 3-point range in 2023-24. That was easily the highest 3-point percentage of Luka’s career.

Moreover, Luka’s ability to get to the free-throw line is a significant contributor to his scoring totals; he averaged 10.6 free-throw attempts per game and converted at a 78.6% clip. If he can further improve his efficiency from the charity stripe, his scoring average could take another leap forward.

Defensively, opponents often struggle to contain Luka due to his size (6’7”) and strength, which allow him to overpower smaller guards. His versatility as a scorer makes him one of the most challenging players to guard in the NBA. Luka’s dominance in both the half-court offense and transition gives him an edge over his competitors, as he can exploit matchups in multiple ways. Barring any major injuries or unexpected roster changes, Doncic is poised to once again challenge for the scoring title, with NBA handicappers favoring him to secure it for a 2nd straight season.

Joel Embiid (+300)

Joel Embiid is a 2-time NBA scoring champion, having led the league in 2022-23 with an outstanding 33.1 PPG. He actually averaged a career-high 34.7 points per game last season, but only appeared in 39 regular-season games. Players have to play in at least 58 games to qualify for end-of-season leaderboards, so Embiid was well off the pace as a result of injuries.

Clearly, staying healthy will be important to Embiid’s chances of winning a 3rd scoring crown this term. Embiid’s offensive versatility is nearly unmatched for a player of his size (7’0”), as he can score efficiently in the post, mid-range, and from the 3-point line. His +300 scoring leader odds reflect his standing as a top-tier scorer in the league, and if he can replicate his performance from last season while playing the requisite number of games, he’ll be in prime position to challenge for the title again.

One of Embiid’s key strengths is his ability to get to the free-throw line. He averaged 11.6 free-throw attempts per game in 2023-24, converting them at an elite 88.3% rate. Defenders simply aren’t big or strong enough to handle Embiid in the post, which is why they’ll often resort to hacking him and sending him to the line instead of giving him easy buckets. Additionally, Embiid shot 52.9% from the field and 38.8% from beyond the arc, making him a reliable scorer at all three levels. His combination of power, skill, and footwork in the paint makes him almost unguardable in one-on-one situations, forcing teams to double-team him regularly.

Another important factor is Embiid’s role in the Philadelphia 76ers offense. As the team’s primary scoring option, he’s expected to maintain a high usage rate, which was north of 40% last season (highest in the NBA). However, the Sixers added Paul George this summer to a lineup that already includes another high-volume scorer in Tyrese Maxey. While Embiid has played alongside high-usage teammates in the past, I expect the addition of George to knife into Embiid’s usage quite a bit.

Injuries have also been a concern throughout Embiid’s career. He missed 43 games in 2023-24, and his ability to stay healthy will be a critical factor in his pursuit of another scoring title. Embiid is expected to prioritize staying healthy for the playoffs over seeking individual accolades during the regular season. As a result, I’m highly skeptical that he’ll play in enough games to qualify for the scoring title. At +300, I don’t think we’re getting enough value for me to pull the trigger on a wager on Embiid.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+450)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took a massive leap forward in 2023-24, finishing 3rd in the NBA in scoring with 30.1 PPG. His odds of +450 reflect the growing belief that he can remain an elite scorer despite the Oklahoma City Thunder having made a few roster tweaks this offseason. The All-Star guard is known for his ability to get to the rim, using his quick first step and incredible body control to finish efficiently around defenders. Last season, Shai shot an impressive 53.5% from the field, a remarkable number for a guard, which speaks to his ability to find high-percentage shots. His knack for creating offense – both on and off the ball – makes him a legitimate contender for the scoring title.

One of Shai’s biggest strengths is his ability to draw fouls and capitalize at the free-throw line. He averaged 8.7 free-throw attempts per game in 2023-24, which was actually a steep decline from the 10.9 he averaged the season prior. Shai’s ability to generate easy points from the line will be crucial if he wants to compete with the likes of Luka and Embiid for the scoring title. Additionally, Shai’s improved mid-range jumper has made him even more difficult to guard, as defenders can no longer sag off him to protect the paint.

As the clear leader of the Thunder, Shai’s role in the offense is secure, and his usage rate (32.5%) is expected to remain high. The Thunder have a young and developing roster, and as they continue to improve, Shai will likely take on more offensive responsibility. OKC parted ways with Josh Giddey this offseason, which means Gilgeous-Alexander should have the ball in his hands even more. Giddey’s direct replacement, Alex Caruso, isn’t much of an offensive threat.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to score in bunches and the fact that he’s the clear number one option, Shai should still remain near the top of the NBA’s scoring leaderboard.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+600)

Giannis Antetokounmpo, despite being primarily known for his all-around dominance, finished 2nd in scoring last season with 30.4 PPG, making him a strong contender for the scoring title in 2024-25 at +600 odds. Giannis’ scoring is driven by his unmatched size and athleticism, which allows him to overpower defenders and score efficiently in the paint. He shot a career-high 61.1% from the field last season – the highest among the top 10 scorers – underscoring his ability to finish efficiently at the rim. Whether in transition or in half-court sets, Giannis is a nightmare to defend thanks to his strength, length, and explosiveness.

While his outside shooting remains inconsistent—he shot just 27.4% from 3 in 2023-24—Giannis makes up for it with his ability to get to the free-throw line. He averaged 10.7 free-throw attempts per game last season, though his 65.7% conversion rate left room for improvement. If Giannis can become a more reliable free-throw shooter, it could significantly boost his scoring numbers, as teams often resort to fouling him to prevent easy baskets. His relentless attacking style and ability to absorb contact while finishing through defenders make him a constant scoring threat.

The addition of Damian Lillard last season didn’t really affect Giannis’ scoring output in a negative way. Antetokounmpo’s scoring average dipped slightly from 31.1 points per game the year prior to 30.4 last season. It’s worth noting Khris Middleton missed significant time due to injury, however. While Middleton isn’t a safe bet to stay healthy at this stage of his career, the Milwaukee Bucks‘ No. 3 scorer having more availability this year could put a dent in Giannis’ scoring average.

If Giannis can maintain his high field-goal percentage while improving his free-throw shooting, he has a legitimate shot at challenging for the scoring title. While he’s still one of the most dominant players in the sport, the holes in Antetokounmpo’s offensive game make him more difficult to trust than some of the other scoring title favorites.

Best NBA Scoring Title Betting Value

The following NBA stars offer betting value based on their recent NBA success and current odds for this NBA prop bet:

Anthony Edwards (+3500)

Anthony Edwards is an exciting young player entering the 2024-25 season with +3500 odds to lead the league in scoring. Needless to say, that’s quite a drop from Giannis at +600 as the player with the 4th-best scoring title odds.

Last season, Edwards averaged 25.9 points per game, but he has shown flashes of brilliance that suggest he could make a leap into elite scoring territory. His performance during the 2023 FIBA World Cup, where he led Team USA in scoring, highlighted his ability to take over games when given the opportunity. Edwards is an explosive athlete, capable of finishing at the rim with authority, and his 3-point shooting has steadily improved, making him a dangerous perimeter threat.

One of Edwards’ biggest strengths is his confidence. He plays with a relentless energy and has shown that he is not afraid to take on a larger role within the Minnesota Timberwolves’ offense. His shot attempts increased to 19.7 per game last season, and with a developing all-around offensive game, Edwards is poised to become the Timberwolves’ primary scoring option.

Crucially, Minnesota traded fellow All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks this offseason. While KAT’s direct replacement – Julius Randle – will assume some of the Wolves’ scoring load, it’s safe to say that Edwards will be the unquestioned alpha dog in this offense all season.

The key to Edwards’ success will be consistency. He has the talent to score 30-plus points on any given night, but becoming a league-leading scorer requires delivering high-level performances game after game. If Edwards can maintain a high shot volume while increasing his efficiency, particularly from beyond the arc (he shot 35.7% from three last season), he could push his scoring average into the upper 20s or even low 30s. Additionally, if the Timberwolves decide to run more of their offense through him, his usage rate, which was 29.0% last season, could climb, giving him more opportunities to score.

While Edwards is a bit of a long shot for the scoring title, he has the potential to exceed expectations. As he continues to grow into his role as the Timberwolves’ star player, don’t be surprised if his scoring output jumps significantly.

Trae Young (+4000)

Trae Young, with +4000 odds, remains one of the most prolific offensive players in the NBA, despite not ranking among the league leaders in the scoring race last season. Young averaged 25.7 points per game in 2023-24, which was his lowest scoring output since 2020-21. The Atlanta Hawks traded Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans this summer, however, which could result in a usage boost for Trae heading into the new campaign.

Young’s elite shooting range and elite passing skills keep defenses on their heels. Young’s ability to launch deep 3-pointers at a high volume is a major component of his scoring arsenal, and he averaged 8.7 3-point attempts per game last season. He’s not exactly Steph Curry from downtown – shooting 37.3% a season ago – but he converts enough of them to force defenders into respecting his floor spacing.

Young’s offensive game is not limited to just 3-point shooting. He excels in the pick-and-roll, using his quickness and ball-handling to get into the paint, where he can finish with floaters or draw fouls. He averaged 7.5 free-throw attempts per game last season, converting at an 85.5% rate, which adds a significant number of points to his totals.

For Trae to make a serious push for the scoring title, improving his shooting efficiency will be key. While he takes a high volume of shots, his field goal percentage was just 43% last season. If he can bring his 3-point shooting back to his 2020-21 levels (when he shot 38.3% from beyond the arc), his scoring average could improve significantly.

Young is still one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league, and with the potential to score in bunches, he remains a solid candidate to break into the top scorers this season. If he can balance his scoring and playmaking while improving his shooting percentages, he could easily see his PPG rise to the 28-30 range. At +4000, Trae makes for an interesting long-shot wager.

Jalen Brunson (+5000)

Jalen Brunson comes into the 2024-25 season as a bit of a sleeper pick for the scoring title with +5000 odds. Brunson had a breakout year with the New York Knicks in 2023-24, averaging 28.7 points per game, his career-high, after taking on a more prominent role in the Knicks’ offense. His ability to score in isolation, particularly in the mid-range, makes him a highly efficient scorer, and his leadership on the floor has made him the focal point of New York’s offense. Despite being undersized for a guard, Brunson consistently finds ways to score against larger defenders, using his footwork and craftiness to create space.

Brunson’s strength lies in his efficiency. He shot nearly 48% from the field and an impressive 40.1% from 3-point range last season, showing that he can score from all areas of the court. Additionally, his ability to get to the free-throw line has improved; he averaged 6.5 free-throw attempts per game, converting at an 84.7% clip. As the Knicks’ go-to scorer, Brunson’s shot attempts and overall scoring volume are likely to increase this season, especially if the team continues to rely heavily on his offensive creation in late-game situations.

For Brunson to truly compete for the scoring title, he will need to maintain his efficiency while increasing his scoring volume. Last season, he averaged 21.4 field goal attempts per game. Julius Randle missed much of last season with an injury, however, which forced Brunson to take on a bigger offensive role. The addition of Towns should take a bite out of Brunson’s scoring average this year, unfortunately.

While Brunson has become one of the most efficient scoring guards in the league, I’m skeptical that he’ll be able to hang with the likes of Doncic and SGA at the top of the league’s scoring charts all season.

Top Longshot To Win NBA Scoring Title

Donovan Mitchell, with +6000 odds, is one of the league’s most explosive scorers and is certainly capable of competing for the scoring title. Last season, Mitchell averaged 26.6 PPG, which would’ve tied him with De’Aaron Fox for 8th in the NBA had he played enough games to qualify. Injuries limited Mitchell to just 55 games, however.

His scoring prowess was on full display during his 2nd year with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Spida excels at creating his own shot, particularly in isolation situations, and his quick first step makes him difficult to defend on the perimeter. Whether it’s a pull-up jumper or a drive to the rim, Mitchell has a wide array of offensive tools at his disposal. He’s averaged 24.8 points per game for his career, and his 28.3 scoring average in his first season in Cleveland was the highest since entering the league.

One of the key factors in Mitchell’s scoring success is his ability to knock down 3-pointers. He averaged 9 3-point attempts per game last season, connecting on 36.8% of them, making him one of the most dangerous deep shooters in the league. His range forces defenders to play him tight, which opens up driving lanes for him to attack the basket. Additionally, Mitchell is adept at drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line, where he averaged 5.8 attempts per game, hitting at an 86.5% rate. That’s not one of the highest free-throw rates in the league, however.

Mitchell’s role in Cleveland’s offense will continue to be substantial, as the Cavaliers rely heavily on him to create scoring opportunities, both for himself and his teammates. His usage rate north of 30% in 2023-24 indicates just how important he is to the team’s offense. If he can maintain his efficiency while increasing his shot volume, Mitchell could easily push his scoring average above 30 PPG.

One potential challenge for Mitchell will be balancing his scoring with the Cavs’ other offensive options, including Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. While Cleveland has a deep roster, Mitchell remains the primary offensive option, and if he can continue to lead the team in scoring while improving his consistency, he has the potential to make a serious push for the top spot among NBA scorers.

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Who Will Win the 2024-25 NBA Scoring Title?

After breaking down the top contenders for the 2024-25 NBA scoring title, Luka Doncic stands out as the best bet to win the crown yet again. Luka has the ball in his hands more than any player in the sport, and the Mavs give him the green light to find his own shot every time down the floor. The addition of Kyrie Irving a couple of years ago did nothing to negatively affect Doncic’s scoring numbers. If anything, Kyrie’s presence gives Doncic more freedom with opposing defenses having to focus on trying to stop both All-Star guards.

While other players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will certainly be in the mix, Luka’s consistency, shot-making ability, and playmaking prowess give him the edge in what is sure to be a competitive scoring race. We’re not getting amazing value on Doncic’s +140 scoring title odds, but I think last year’s scoring crown was the first of many for him. Bet on Doncic to win it again this season.

Best Bet: Luka Doncic (+140)

Recent NBA Scoring Leaders