UFC Fight Night 245 Odds and Predictions

After a couple of nice weeks of MMA picks, I kept the ball rolling with some solid UFC Fight Night 244 picks. 

I admittedly struggled on the main card, though, going just 2-3. It was one with some arguable bad beats, as two of my favorite bets were ruined by Splits Decisions.

As for the card as a whole, I ended up going a stellar 8-3. One fight saw a replacement fighter, and another one was canceled. I didn’t deliver on the main card, but an 8-3 record across the board is something we can feel good about.

The goal is to keep the good times going, as we can do that with a fun event going down in Las Vegas at the UFC APEX. Anthony Hernandez and Michael Pereira headline a solid main card, with the top-shelf action firing off at 6:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

The Prelims get the ball rolling at 3:00 pm EST, so make sure you don’t wait too long to get your bets in. With that, let’s look at the latest UFC Fight Night 245 odds and get to my fight predictions.

UFC Fight Night 245 Odds

Make sure you shop around at the top MMA betting sites for the best UFC Fight Night 245 odds. Here’s the latest pricing:

This is probably the weakest card in a while, and yet it’s still pretty strong. The main event could be an instant classic, as Anthony Hernandez and Michael Pereira continue to try to carve out their spot in UFC history.

The pricing looks good for UFC Fight Night 245, as just one fight on the main card projects to be terribly lopsided. There’s solid betting value across the rest of the card, too, so it really comes down to which MMA betting sites you call home, and which MMA picks you’re rolling with.

I’ve been handing out plenty of wins, so the goal is to keep things humming along. To do that, let’s break down the main card and the Prelims and see how I think these fights shake out.

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UFC Fight Night 245 Main Card Predictions

The main card for UFC FN 245 fires off at 6:00 pm EST on ESPN+. Here are the top fights and my picks.

Anthony Hernandez (-137) vs. Michael Pereira (+117)

Hernandez is a respectable 12-2 and is coming in hot, winning each of his last five fights. He is a handful on the canvas (8 submission wins), and he’s ousted some massive names, finishing Roman Lopylov and Edmen Shahbazyan specifically.

The man known as Fluffy is favored for a reason, as he also happens to have the reach edge over his opponent, Michael Pereira. Pereira is the much more experienced fighter, however, and he does have the edge in takedown percentage and significant strikes landed per minute (5.16).

Pereira is also on fire these days. He stands in with a stellar 31-11 career record, and he’s in even better form than Hernandez with eight straight wins. His opponents are no slouches, either, as he just got done choking out Ihor Pitieria last May.

This should be a banger, but I am taking the experience, versatility, and value that Pereira provides.

Bet: Michael Pereira +117

Kyler Phillips (-450) vs. Rob Font (+325)

The only one-sided affair on the main card has Kyler Phillips as an overwhelming betting favorite. He comes in with a nice 12-2 overall record, and he does appear to have a sizable advantage in takedown ability, as well as reach and overall striking.

He’s also much younger than Font, who is a respectable 20-8 and a veteran of the industry. I hate to go against Font’s experience, but at 37, he simply isn’t what he once was. Now, losing to the likes of Deiveson Figueiredo and Cory Sandgagen isn’t shameful in the least, but he’s still just 1-4 over his last five bouts.

Font is good enough to hang around and make this thing go the distance, but the finishing ability just isn’t what it used to be. I don’t really want to bet on Phillips at his -450 price, but he’s the likely winner here.

Bet: Kyler Phillips -450

Charles Johnson (-210) vs. Sumudaerji (+180)

This third match is a bit more palatable for sports bettors, as it projects as a good fight and you’re getting a decent price no matter which side you like.

Johnson enters as the favorite at -210, and he’s been solid with a 16-6 record. The 33-year old has five years on his challenger, but he also has a mild striking edge. He comes in hot with three straight wins, but it’s worth noting that he is just 3-3 over his last six fights.

On the other side is Sumudaerji, who is also 16-6, and still offers comparable striking numbers, while holding a clear edge in takedown ability. He’s a very dangerous fighter (13 KOs), but his recent form is suspect (lost two straight) and he is vulnerable on the mat (6 submission losses).

Johnson is the more technically skilled fighter and he’s a bit more well-rounded, plus he’s yet to be stopped early. I’m not betting on that happening here.

Bet: Charles Johnson -210

Brady Hiestand (-131) vs. Jake Hadley (+111)

Hiestand enters UFC FN 245 as the slight favorite in his battle with Jake Hadley. Hiestand is a respectable 9-2 to this point, and he does have a mild reach advantage. He’ll also carry a sizable edge in takedown offense and also has the edge in striking accuracy.

While that’s all true, Hadley has that dog in him. He is a feisty fighter with zero quit, as he’s never been finished and he has ended the fight early in eight of his 11 wins.

His recent form isn’t amazing, but Decision losses to Charles Johnson and Cody Durden aren’t what I’d call disappointing defeats. It’s a close one, but give me the value with Hadley.

Bet: Jake Hadley +111

Daniel Pineda (-115) vs. Darren Elkins (-105)

Wrapping up the UFC Fight Night 245 main card is a fight of the night candidate, with two battle tested veterans duking it out.

Pineda is nearing the end at age 39, but he’s 28-16 for his career and has ended all of his wins early (19 by submission). He’s still very dangerous, as evidenced by a submission win against Tucker Lutz in March of last year.

He’s 0-2 since then, but he’s at least fought the entire way, dropping Decisions to Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres.

Elkins is actually older than Pineda, but he has a better record at 28-11 and he’s been a bit more dangerous a little more recently. He got a nice submission win in October of last year against T.J. Brown, and he’s 4-2 over his last six fights.

Pineda has gone on record saying he’ll retire if he loses this fight. Anytime someone has one foot out the door, bettors should be concerned. It should be a bloodbath and go down to the wire, but I’ll take the value with Elkins.

Bet: Darren Elkins -105

UFC Fight Night 245 Preliminary Card Predictions

The Prelims get this show started at 3:00 pm EST on ESPN+. See who is on the early card and how I’m betting this portion of the UFC Fight Night event.

Asu Almabaev (-190) vs. Matheus Nicolau (+165)

The action gets started early with a pretty tightly contested bout between Asu Almabaev and Matheus Nicolau. The former is a -190 betting favorite thanks to a staggering 20-2 record and nine career submission wins.

Zulfikhar has not lost since 2017, and has impressed under the UFC banner, going 3-0 and securing a submission win. He’s looked good, but the level of competition jumps a bit against this week’s opponent.

Nicolau is a skilled fighter that could match Asu on the ground, and he’s a stellar 19-4 for his career. He’s displayed a soft chin (4 career KO defeats), but he’s never been submitted.

His recent form is a bit troubling, of course, as he has dropped two in a row. Both of those losses did come against quality fighters, but once you factor in Asu’s superior striking accuracy, this one starts feeling dicey.

All things considered, Almabaev feels like a value at -190.

Bet: Asu Almabaev -190

Jean Matsumoto (-235) vs. Brad Katona (+200)

Onward and upward we go, as we see the odds spike a bit with Jean Matsumoto being favored quite a bit. Matsumoto is undefeated (15-0), which explains the price, and he also has a four inch reach edge and offers superior takedown offense.

Matsumoto has obviously never been finished, but he has scored nine early stops in his career and debuted in the UFC in style with a Guillotine Choke last April.

Brad Katona (14-3) is not a scrub. He lacks explosive, inside the distance upside (10 career Decision wins), but he’s also never been stopped early, himself. I think there’s a decent chance he staves off early stoppage here, but not without taking on a considerable amount of damage.

Matsumoto feels like a home run here and the -235 odds are pretty palatable.

Bet: Jean Matsumoto -235

Joselyne Edwards (-250) vs. Tamires Vidal (+210)

Edwards (13-6) comes into this fight as a fairly big favorite, as she has more experience, has a two-inch reach edge, and has never been KO’d. She’s done a solid job of finishing fights, too, while she also possesses nice versatility.

Vidal is younger, but lacks the same experience or polish. She only has one KO win to her name, so while she has a versatile skill-set, she may not be a great bet to shock with an early stoppage victory in this one.

Tratora has had a tough go of it so far in the UFC (1-2), so she could have her hands full in this one. I don’t love the price on Edwards, but she’s probably the correct pick. Ideally, you can shop around for a bet on this one to go the distance.

Bet: Joselyn Edwards -250

Melissa Martinez (-131) vs. Alice Ardelean (+111)

Martinez should arguably be favored by more, as she’s a stout 7-1 so far and has a four-inch reach advantage in this one. She offers superior striking accuracy and solid knockout ability (5 KO wins).

It’s worth noting that Elise Reed gave her a lot of trouble in her UFC debut, which she lost via Decision. Her talent and production leading up to that point suggests she might be under-priced here, however.

Her opponent is more experienced, but Alice Ardelean is 9-6 and hasn’t faced a ton of impressive competition. She’s never been knocked out, but that could change in this one.

Bet: Melissa Martinez -131

Robelis Despaigne (-450) vs. Austen Lane (+350)

One of the biggest UFC FN favorites is Robelis Despaigne. He’s 36 and has fought just six fights, but he’s 5-1 in those bouts and he does have the height and reach edge against his opponent.

Despaigne packs a serious punch (5 KO wins) and has yet to be KO’d himself. His UFC debut was admittedly not great (Decision loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta), but that may just mean he has to work a bit harder for it the second time around.

He is set up for success against Austen Lane, who has a history of big finishes (11 KO wins), but has also been knocked out five times. His time has come and gone, as he hasn’t notched a win in any of his last three bouts and last KO’d someone back in 2022.

Lane is live for the upset, but Despaigne is a heavy favorite for a reason. He’s the pick, but I’d definitely be looking for an inside the distance or KO wager.

Bet: Robelis Despaigne -450

Elise Reed (-180) vs. Jessica Penne (+155)

Lastly, we have Elise Reed (7-4) favored to take out Jessica Penne. Reed is 10 years younger, and the data shows she is the more reliable option when it comes to takedown offense and striking accuracy.

Reed’s record is not impressive, of course. She has two KO wins and no submissions on her resume, so early stoppage is no lock for her. She has been finished in all four of her losses, however. Her recent form also isn’t very encouraging, as she’s just 2-2 over her last four fights.

That said, Penne is 41 years old and her 14-7 record isn’t overly inspiring. She is a problem on the canvas (8 career submissions), but she’s just 2-5 over her last seven fights and she has just one submission win since 2014.

This fight feels gross, but nothing Reed has done excites me. She’s younger, but she can be stopped early and if this fight goes to the ground she could be in trouble. Penne also has the height and reach edge, which could contribute to takedowns.

I didn’t think I’d be backing a 41-year old going into UFC Fight Night 245, but in the name of Darren Elkins, why not do it twice?

Bet: Jessica Penne +155

UFC Fight Night 245 Fight Card