Florida Gators vs Kentucky Wildcats Picks and Predictions October 19th 2024

SECN will be covering the action as the Kentucky Wildcats and Florida Gators face off in a week eight matchup on Saturday, October 19th, with kick-off set for 7:45 ET. The game will be played at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. Both teams enter the game with a 3-3 record for the season. The over/under line is currently set at 42.5 points, and the Wildcats are the slight -1 point spread favorite on the road.

Kentucky vs. Florida Key Information

Kentucky enters Week 8 against Florida with a 3-3 record, ranked 32nd in our power rankings. They have a 50.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Wildcats are 2-3 on the road and 1-0 at home this season.

They’ve been favored in four of their six games, going 2-2 as the favorite. Kentucky’s average scoring margin is +6, and they are 4-2 against the spread.

Their over/under record is 1-5, with an average line of 45.8 points. This week’s line is set at 42.5 points, and their games have averaged 35 points per contest.

Heading into week 8, Kentucky’s offense ranks 80th in points per game, averaging 20.5. They are 66th in our offensive power rankings. Their run game is their strength, with 38.3 rushing attempts per game, ranking 24th nationally, and they average 155 rushing yards per game.

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Demie Sumo-Karngbaye leads the rushing attack with 380 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff has thrown for 951 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions, with a passer rating of 88. Dane Key has 452 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Despite their recent 20-13 loss to Vanderbilt, Kentucky’s defense allowed just 20 points, giving up 290 total yards, including 147 rushing yards and 143 passing yards. They also forced an interception in the game.

On the season, Kentucky ranks 8th nationally, allowing just 14.5 points per game. Opponents are averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game and 162.2 passing yards, completing 66% of their passes against Kentucky’s defense.

Florida enters Week 8 against Kentucky with a 3-3 record, ranked 27th in our power rankings. They have a 34.8% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. At home, the Gators are 1-2, while they’ve gone 1-0 on the road this season.

Florida’s average scoring margin is +3.8, and they are 2-2 against the spread. They’ve been favored in just one game this season, covering the spread as favorites (1-0) but going 0-2 ATS as underdogs.

The over/under line for this week is 42.5 points. Florida’s games have averaged 52.2 points, with an average over/under line of 54.8 points. Their over/under record is 3-1 this season.

Florida’s offense ranks 50th in points per game, scoring 28 per contest, and they are 39th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 8. Graham Mertz has thrown for 791 yards and has a passer rating of 113. The Gators are 41st in passing yards per game, averaging 261, and they are 35th in completions, with 20 per game. They are 57th in passing attempts.

Florida ranks 6th in the nation in completion percentage, completing 71.4% of their passes. Mertz has thrown six touchdowns and two interceptions this season. On the ground, the Gators are averaging 144 rushing yards per game. Montrell Johnson Jr. leads the team with 373 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Elijhah Badger has 376 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Florida’s defense allowed 23 points in their recent game against Tennessee, giving up 312 total yards. The Gators allowed 143 rushing yards on 43 attempts and 169 passing yards, but they did manage to force an interception.

On the season, Florida’s defense is ranked 46th nationally, allowing 24.2 points per game. Opponents are averaging 167.8 rushing yards per game and 213.5 passing yards, with quarterbacks posting a 92 passer rating against the Gators.

Florida is the -1 point spread favorite at home in their week eight matchup against Kentucky. We expect the Gators to win straight-up, with a projected final score of 26-21 in their favor.

With the over/under line set at 42.5 points, our projection of 47 combined points suggests that taking the over is the best play on the totals line.

Florida Turns to DJ Lagway in Clash vs. Kentucky

Florida and Kentucky will face off on Saturday night in Gainesville, Fla., as both teams try to bounce back from disappointing losses last week. For each, this Southeastern Conference matchup offers a critical opportunity to steady their seasons after inconsistent starts.

Florida Adjusts After Losing Mertz

The Florida Gators (3-3, 1-2 SEC) are reeling from the loss of starting quarterback Graham Mertz, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury in their 23-17 overtime loss at Tennessee last Saturday. Mertz’s injury adds to Florida’s frustrations, but it also signals the beginning of a new chapter for the team, with freshman quarterback DJ Lagway stepping into the starting role.

Lagway has shown promise in his limited appearances this season, playing in every game. Against Tennessee, he completed 9 of 17 passes for 98 yards, including a touchdown pass and one interception in relief of Mertz.

Florida head coach Billy Napier expressed confidence in Lagway, saying, “I think there’s some excitement in terms of DJ and what he has been able to accomplish. I think he’ll be much better prepared. … He will benefit from taking all the first-team reps for the entire week.”

Lagway’s progression will be crucial for a Florida offense that has struggled to consistently produce points. With Mertz out, the Gators will need their young quarterback to grow quickly under pressure, especially in a game where a homecoming victory could set the tone for the rest of their season.

Kentucky’s Offensive Struggles

Kentucky (3-3, 1-3 SEC) is also coming off a disappointing loss, falling 20-13 at home to Vanderbilt last week. The Wildcats have found it difficult to capitalize on their opportunities, and the loss to the Commodores marked the third time this season they have scored 13 points or less.

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has been frustrated with his team’s offensive inefficiency, particularly in getting the ball into the end zone. Despite racking up 23 first downs against Vanderbilt, the Wildcats were only able to muster 13 points.

“You obviously need to get the ball in the end zone,” Stoops said. “You just got to punch it in.”

Adding to the Wildcats’ woes, they were plagued by 12 penalties against Vanderbilt, a season-high that contributed to their inability to maintain momentum on offense. Stoops acknowledged that his team has been “falling short,” particularly in key moments where penalties and mistakes have disrupted their rhythm.

Offensively, Kentucky has leaned on Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, who leads the team with 380 rushing yards. Sumo-Karngbaye has nearly twice as many rushing yards as any other player on the Wildcats, and his continued development will be key to Kentucky’s chances on Saturday.

“I see a guy who’s gaining more confidence and getting better,” Stoops said of Sumo-Karngbaye.

A Game of Similarities

Both Kentucky and Florida find themselves in similar situations, with Stoops noting the parallels between the two programs.

“They’re a team much like ours; it’s a very thin line between success and failure,” Stoops said. Both teams are battling to find consistency, and with their seasons hanging in the balance, Saturday’s contest could be pivotal.

Florida coach Billy Napier echoed that sentiment, emphasizing the importance of the Gators learning from recent setbacks and responding accordingly.

“There will be an opportunity here for our team to learn and respond,” Napier said. With Lagway leading the offense and the team looking to regain its footing, Florida will need a solid performance at home to build momentum heading into the second half of the season.

Key Players to Watch

DJ Lagway – Florida

All eyes will be on freshman quarterback DJ Lagway as he makes his first start for the Gators. With Mertz out, Lagway’s ability to manage the offense and limit mistakes will be critical to Florida’s chances. Lagway has shown flashes of potential, but he’ll need to prove he can handle the pressure of being the starter in a crucial SEC matchup.

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Demie Sumo-Karngbaye – Kentucky

Sumo-Karngbaye has been Kentucky’s most reliable offensive player, leading the team in rushing and providing consistency in the ground game. If the Wildcats are to break through offensively, they’ll need Sumo-Karngbaye to continue to churn out yards and help take the pressure off quarterback Devin Leary, who has struggled at times this season.

Conclusion: A Must-Win Game for Both Teams

As both teams come off losses, this game has taken on added significance. For Florida, it’s about rallying behind their new quarterback and securing a homecoming victory that could change the course of their season. For Kentucky, it’s about cleaning up offensive inefficiencies and avoiding another stumble that could derail their hopes of a successful campaign.

With both teams searching for answers, Saturday’s clash in Gainesville could prove to be a pivotal moment for each program’s season.