Tennessee Volunteers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Picks and Predictions October 19th 2024

At 3:30 ET, Alabama and Tennessee will be facing off in a week eight matchup, with ABC handling the television broadcast. The game will be played at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. The over/under line is currently set at 56 points. The money line odds are +115 for Tennessee and -138 for Alabama, who are the slight -2.5 point favorites on the road. Both teams come in with a 5-1 record this season.

Alabama vs. Tennessee Key Information

Alabama heads into Week 8 against Tennessee with a 5-1 record, ranked 3rd in our power rankings. They are 4-0 at home and 1-1 on the road this season. Alabama has a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 14.5% chance of winning the SEC. They have the 6th best odds to make the playoff at 69.5% and the 3rd best odds to win the national championship at 8.7%.

The Crimson Tide’s ATS record is 3-3, with a +20.8 average scoring margin. They are 2-3 against the spread as the favorite and 1-0 as the underdog. At home, Alabama is 1-2 ATS as the favorite and 1-0 as the underdog.

Alabama’s over/under record is 5-1, with their games averaging 62.5 points. Their average over/under line is 54.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 56 points.

Alabama’s offense is ranked 10th in our power rankings heading into week 8, and they are also 10th in points per game, scoring 41.7. Jalen Milroe has thrown for 1,488 yards and has a passer rating of 127. Alabama is 7th in passer rating nationally and 3rd in completion percentage, connecting on 72.1% of their passes.

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Milroe has 12 touchdown passes and four interceptions this season. Jam Miller leads the rushing attack with 360 yards, averaging 7 yards per carry. Ryan Williams has 576 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 23 catches.

Alabama’s defense has allowed 20.8 points per game this season, ranking 32nd nationally. In their recent game against South Carolina, they gave up 25 points, allowing 374 total yards, including 242 passing yards and one rushing touchdown. Alabama’s defense also forced an interception in the game.

Opponents have averaged 130.7 rushing yards per game against Alabama, while quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of 83.5, completing 60.4% of their throws. Alabama’s defense has faced an average of 35 pass attempts and 38.2 rushing attempts per game this season.

Sitting at 5-1, Tennessee is set to face Alabama in Week 8. They are ranked 7th in our power rankings and have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible. The Volunteers have a 6.5% chance of winning the SEC but hold the 11th best odds to make the CFB playoff at 44.9%.

Tennessee has been favored in four of their six games this season, going 3-1 as the favorite. They have a +31.5 average scoring margin and a 3-1 record against the spread.

This week’s over/under line is 56 points. Tennessee’s games have averaged 52.8 points, with an average line of 58.2 points. Their over/under record stands at 2-2 for the season.

Heading into week 8, Tennessee’s offense ranks 9th in points per game, averaging 42.2. They are 7th in rushing, with 248.5 yards per game on 45.5 attempts. Dylan Sampson leads the ground game with 699 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Nico Iamaleava has thrown for 1,219 yards, and Tennessee is 59th in passing yards. Iamaleava has seven touchdowns and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 99. Dont’e Thornton Jr. has 295 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Tennessee’s defense has been impressive this season, allowing just 10.7 points per game, ranking third nationally. They’ve given up 90.8 rushing yards per game, which is 14th fewest in the country, and 170.2 passing yards per game.

In their recent game against Florida, Tennessee allowed 17 points, giving up 361 total yards, including 138 rushing yards on 40 attempts and 223 passing yards. The defense also forced an interception during the game.

Our projections have Tennessee winning this matchup 32-28 over Alabama. The Vols are currently +2.5 point underdogs, making them a great bet to not only win straight-up but also against the spread.

With the over/under line set at 56 points, we recommend taking the over, as our score projection of 60 points suggests there is good value in this bet.

Jalen Milroe, No. 7 Alabama Set Sights on No. 11 Tennessee

As the third Saturday in October approaches, the stakes are high for both No. 7 Alabama and No. 11 Tennessee. In previous seasons, losing a second game by this point in the year would be a major setback for teams aiming for the College Football Playoff. But with the new 12-team playoff format, a second loss doesn’t necessarily spell doom for a team’s postseason aspirations. Both the Crimson Tide and the Volunteers will battle on Saturday in Knoxville, Tenn., to keep their playoff hopes alive and maintain a shot at one of the coveted four first-round byes.

Tennessee Looks to Reverse the Tide

Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC) enters this crucial Southeastern Conference (SEC) matchup aiming to turn the tide in a series it has struggled with in recent years. The Volunteers have lost 16 of their last 17 games against Alabama, including a 52-49 thriller two years ago when they last hosted the Crimson Tide. Tennessee coach Josh Heupel understands the importance of the rivalry and is eager to change the narrative.

“Another huge contest here for us,” Heupel said on Monday. “Rivalry game and college football as good as it gets here with these two teams playing. So looking forward to seeing our fans out on Saturday and needing a great week of practice preparation for a really good football team that we’re playing.”

This will be Heupel’s fourth time facing Alabama as Tennessee’s coach, and he’s well aware of the historic significance of the rivalry.

“This rivalry has been around a long time before Nick Saban was a part of it or I was a part of it,” Heupel said. “The magnitude of this rivalry is the historical nature and what it’s meant inside of this league a lot.”

Alabama Navigates a Rocky Road

First-year Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has quickly learned the significance of the Alabama-Tennessee rivalry, a game that has long been circled on the calendar by fans and players alike.

“I’ve been told it’s a big deal, and I know it’s a big deal. You see it from afar,” DeBoer said on Monday. “As a coach, they’re all big and you take one at a time. But certainly understand the significance of the rivalry. Guys are going to be very motivated to go out and do their best and prepare well and be great on Saturday.”

However, Alabama (5-1, 2-1) hasn’t been as dominant as in years past. Two weeks ago, the Crimson Tide were ranked No. 1 before a shocking 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt. Last week, Alabama narrowly avoided another slip-up, escaping South Carolina with a 27-25 victory, thanks to a failed two-point conversion by the Gamecocks.

Despite the recent struggles, Alabama’s standout quarterback Jalen Milroe has continued to shine. Milroe has accounted for 23 total touchdowns this season (12 passing, 11 rushing), demonstrating his dual-threat capabilities. Notably, Milroe has averaged 41.4 yards per passing touchdown and is completing 72.4 percent of his passes.

However, Milroe showed some vulnerability in last week’s win over South Carolina, throwing two interceptions, adding to the four he’s thrown all season. Coach DeBoer emphasized the importance of learning from mistakes.

“We just keep stacking these moments on top of these moments,” DeBoer said. “He’ll remember anything that happened this game. He’s gonna remember what happened to him four weeks ago, and that’s what I love about him.”

Key Players to Watch

Jalen Milroe – Alabama

Milroe’s performance will be key to Alabama’s success. His ability to make explosive plays—particularly deep passes to wide receiver Ryan Williams, who is averaging 25.0 yards per catch—will be crucial in breaking down Tennessee’s formidable defense. Milroe’s poise in the pocket and ability to limit turnovers will also be important as the Crimson Tide aim to avoid another close call.

Ryan Williams – Alabama

The freshman wide receiver has become a major deep threat for Alabama. Williams has racked up 23 catches, with seven of those going for 43 or more yards. His big-play ability will be needed against a Tennessee defense that ranks among the best in the nation.

Dylan Sampson – Tennessee

The Volunteers’ running back Dylan Sampson is enjoying a stellar season, having rushed for 699 yards and 15 touchdowns. His 15 scores rank second nationally, and his ability to move the chains and find the end zone will be critical in Tennessee’s efforts to control the tempo of the game. Sampson rushed for 112 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 23-17 overtime win over Florida, marking his fifth 100-yard game of the season.

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Tennessee’s Defensive Strength

While Tennessee’s offense, led by Sampson, has been potent, their defense has been one of the nation’s best. The Volunteers are allowing just 10.7 points per game, ranking fourth in the country, while their total defense ranks second, giving up just 249.8 yards per game.

However, Tennessee’s defense took a hit when linebacker Keenan Pili suffered a knee injury in the win over Florida. Pili is out for the rest of the season, and his absence could weaken a defense that will need all hands on deck to contain Milroe and the Alabama offense.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Rivalry Showdown

Saturday’s showdown between Alabama and Tennessee carries significant implications for both teams’ playoff hopes. Alabama, with Jalen Milroe at the helm, will need to clean up recent mistakes to avoid falling further behind in the SEC standings. Meanwhile, Tennessee will look to avenge years of frustration in this rivalry and continue its climb up the rankings with a signature win.

With both teams fighting to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation, this matchup promises to be one of the weekend’s most compelling contests.