2024 NASCAR South Point 400 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, October 20, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the South Point 400. This is the second of two annual trips to Las Vegas. The first trip came in the beginning of March, and it was Kyle Larson that won that race – the Pennzoil 400.

With that in mind, it should come as no surprise that Larson is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend’s South Point 400. Not only is he one of the best drivers at this Vegas track, but he’s also coming off a win in the Bank of America ROVAL 400 last weekend, which closed out the Round of 12.

Sunday’s South Point 400 marks the 33^rd race of the season, the seventh of the Playoffs, and the first of the Round of 8. Following the conclusion of Charlotte’s road race last weekend, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez were all eliminated. That means only eight drivers remain in contention for the 2024 NASCAR Championship. 

In addition to Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick round out the Top 5 betting favorites for this weekend’s Las Vegas race.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest South Point 400 odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway race.

South Point 400 Race Profile

In 2017, it was announced that Las Vegas would get a second race on the Cup Series calendar. NASCAR decided to move the New Hampshire fall race to Las Vegas by 2018. Since then, this fall Vegas event has moved around the calendar from opening the second round of the Playoffs to its current slot of opening the third round of the postseason.

The Las Vegas Motor Speedway (LVMS) is a classic tri-oval, asphalt track with a lap distance of 1.5 miles. The banking is 20 degrees in the turns and nine degrees for both the frontstretch and backstretch.

Sunday’s South Point 400 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400.5 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: 80 laps
• Stage 2: 80 laps
• Final Stage: 107 laps

The South Point 400 is set to begin at 2:30 pm ET and will air live on NBC.

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Previous South Point 400 Winners

Since the inaugural race took place in 2018, there has only been six editions of the South Point 400. Currently, there have been six different winners of this race. However, if we’re looking at the overall winners for both races at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, then Jimmie Johnson has the most wins with four.

Among active drivers, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Kyle Larson all have three career wins at Las Vegas. Additionally, as you will see below, all three of these drivers have also won the South Point 400.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2023: Kyle Larson
• 2022: Joey Logano
• 2021: Denny Hamlin
• 2020: Kurt Busch
• 2019: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2018: Brad Keselowski

NASCAR South Point 400 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Bank of America ROVAL 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR South Point 400 Playoff Drivers

The following drivers are in the 8-car Playoff field. Let’s take a look at how these drivers have fared in the postseason so far, and how they might do at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend:

Kyle Larson (+350)

• Playoff Standings: 1
• Wins: 6
• Top 5: 13
• Top 10: 16

Despite not winning the regular season Cup Series title, Kyle Larson was the best driver. The #5 car has continued his success from the regular season into the Playoffs. Granted, it didn’t start off so wonderful as he crashed out of the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta and dropped in the Playoff standings.

Nevertheless, Larson bounced back to put on an all-time great performance in winning Bristol’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race to close out the Round of 16.

He started off the second round with some subpar racing before finishing 4^th at Talladega, which was a small miracle. And, as mentioned in the intro of this betting preview, Larson would go on to win the Bank of America ROVAL 400 race to conclude the Round of 12.  

With two wins and three Top 5s in the Playoffs so far, Larson is not only the race favorite for this weekend in Las Vegas, but he’s also the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

In 16 starts at Vegas, Larson has three wins, eight Top 5s, and 12 Top 10s. He also has a 9.3 average finish which leads active drivers and he’s won the last two Vegas races. This includes last year’s South Point 400 as well.

Larson is clearly the driver to beat on Sunday and should be at least a Top 5 driver with a race-winning ceiling.

Christopher Bell (+1000)

• Playoff Standings: 2
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 20

Christopher Bell comes into the Round of 8 sitting in second place for the Playoff Standings. He’s had the most consistent run of any driver with Top 15 finishes in all six Playoff races to date.

Furthermore, the #20 car has three Top 5s and five Top 10s in those races. He’s also closing out the Playoff Rounds with strong finishes as Bell was 5^th at Bristol and 2^nd at Charlotte last weekend.

I fully expect Bell’s run of consistency to continue throughout the Round of 8 as he should score at least three Top 15 finishes, if not better.

At Vegas, Bell has two Top 5s and four Top 10s in nine starts. Now, his 19.1 average finish is not great especially when comparing it to other Playoff drivers. However, prior to this spring’s Vegas race, Bell finished 2^nd in the South Point 400 last year and was 5^th in the 2023 spring Vegas race.

I like for Bell to be a Top 15 driver with a Top 5 ceiling this weekend.

Tyler Reddick (+900)

• Playoff Standings: 3
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19

Heading into the Cup Series postseason, I had high hopes for Tyler Reddick and was a strong believer that he would make the Final 4 race. That conviction has waned with Reddick’s subpar racing in the Playoffs over the first two rounds.

In six Playoff races, the #45 car has one Top 10 and four finishes of 20^th or worse. It’s hard to imagine a driver with these results making it to the Championship race when you consider how well other contenders like Larson, Bell and Byron are racing.

With that said, if Reddick wants any chance of advancing to the Final 4, he needs a strong run in Las Vegas this weekend. Fortunately for the #45 car, Vegas is a track where he’s had some success at.

In nine LVMS starts, Reddick has one Top 5 and five Top 10s with a 13.6 average finish, which is 8^th best among the field. Looking deeper, we see that Reddick has five Top 8 finishes in the last six Vegas races. Additionally, he was second to Larson in this year’s spring Vegas race, while finishing 8^th in the 2023 South Point 400.

I think Reddick can be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling this weekend.

William Byron (+800) 

• Playoff Standings: 4
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 17

I have not been a big believer in William Byron throughout this season. However, he’s really convinced me to come over to his side during the Playoffs. More specifically, Byron’s run during the Round of 12 has been fantastic and I’m not on the #24 bandwagon.

Last weekend, I made the following predictions about Byron at the ROVAL:

“For as hard as it is to predict Talladega and Daytona races, Byron should be a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling this Sunday… Guess who finished 3rd at Talladega last Sunday? Yep, it was the #24 car. That’s two straight Top 3 finishes for Byron as he looks primed for a spot in the Round of 8.

We’re going to go back to the well once again, by picking Byron to be a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling at the ROVAL.”

Guess who finished 3^rd at Charlotte last weekend. Yep, it was Byron and his #24 car. Guess what my prediction is for Byron this weekend. Yep, you guessed right. He will be a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling.

There are top handicappers that continue to count out William Byron for the Final 4, but not me. I think he eliminates Reddick in the Round 8.

As for Vegas, Byron has one win, two Top 5s, six Top 10s and a 15.1 average finish in 13 starts. He’s 9^th in average finish and won the spring 2023 Vegas race. Byron was 10^th in the Pennzoil 400, while finishing 7^th in last year’s South Point 400.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

• Playoff Standings: 5
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 15

As detailed in my updated Cup Series Championship blog, I think that Ryan Blaney is overvalued at +600 odds to win the 2024 Championship. Blaney has been too inconsistent in the Playoffs to warrant odds that high.

To shine a light on this inconsistency, Blaney has four Top 10s in six Playoff races. However, sprinkled into those six races are two crashes where he didn’t finish the race.

Last weekend, I made the following prediction about Blaney at the ROVAL: “I like for Blaney to be a Top 15 driver with a Top 5 ceiling this weekend.”

Blaney would go on to finish 10^th. I feel the same about Blaney this weekend in Vegas. In 16 LVMS starts, Blaney has six Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and an 11.4 average finish which is 5^th best among active drivers.

Denny Hamlin (+900) 

• Playoff Standings: 6
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 15

Denny Hamlin was one of the best regular season drivers along with Larson, Bell and Reddick. However, was lucky to make it out of the first round of the Playoffs, and he has yet to really contend for a race win in the postseason.

With that said, Hamlin appears to have picked up some momentum, as he heads into the Round of 8. Last weekend, I declared the following for Hamlin at ROVAL: “I like for Hamlin to be a Top 15 driver with a Top 10 ceiling.”

Hamlin ended up 14^th. This weekend, I think that Hamlin can be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling. In 25 Vegas starts, Hamlin has one win, six Top 5s, 13 Top 10s, and a 12.5 average finish which is 7^th best among the field.

He’s scored four consecutive Top 11 finishes and won the 2021 South Point 400. Although I don’t see Hamlin winning this weekend’s race, I do still believe he can advance to the Final 4.

Chase Elliott (+1400)  

• Playoff Standings: 7
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 16

Chase Elliott has not lived up to preseason and postseason expectations as of yet. A good example of this was Elliott’s subpar results in the two Playoff road races. He finished 19^th at the Go Bowling at the Glen in Watkins Glen and was 5^th at Charlotte’s ROVAL. Elliott has won at both tracks in his career.

I don’t know if it’s the driver, car, or team, but something is missing from Elliott this year. And, it’s a big reason why I don’t see him making it out of this Playoff round.

Additionally, I don’t see Elliott being a contender for this weekend’s event. In fact, Elliott will be lucky to finish in the Top 15 considering he’s had just three Top 5s, five Top 10s, and an 18.6 average finish in 14 Las Vegas appearances.

Joey Logano (+1400)

• Playoff Standings: 8
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

Not only do I think Joey Logano is a sleeper to win the Championship, but I also think he’s a sleeper to win this race on Sunday.

As mentioned in the intro, Logano has three Las Vegas victories including winning the South Point 400 in 2022. In 22 Vegas starts, he has three wins, seven Top 5s, 13 Top 10s and a 9.9 average finish which is third best among the field.

Keep in mind, Logano already has a Playoff victory by winning in Atlanta. And, he’s coming into this weekend’s race with some momentum. Last Sunday, I predicted the following for Logano: “The #22 car will be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling this weekend.”

Logano didn’t let me down as he finished 8^th. Now, he was very fortunate to make it to the Round of 8 due to Alex Bowman getting disqualified. Otherwise, Logano would’ve been eliminated.

So, I also think that the two-time Cup Series champ rides this luck and wave of momentum to a Top 10 finish. In fact, I think he has a Top 3 ceiling and wouldn’t be surprised if he used some of that luck to win this race.

South Point 400 Best of The Rest

The following drivers are not qualified for the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, but they still offer value at Charlotte:

Kyle Busch (+1600)

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

Kyle Busch has definitely had a down season per his standards. Not only did he fail to make the Playoffs, but he’s also failed to win a race this year. With just four opportunities left, Busch is running out of chances.

Fortunately for the #6 car, he’s been a strong driver at Las Vegas. He and his older brother Kurt, now retired, consider Vegas to be their hometown track.

For the younger Busch, he has one win, 12 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s and an 11.2 average finish in 26 starts. Over the last eight Vegas races, Busch has five Top 5s, six Top 10s, and seven Top 15s.

I think Busch can sneak into the Top 10 this weekend. He will need some luck to crack the Top 5. However, he was 3^rd in this race in 2023, 2022, and 2021. That’s three straight Top 3 finishes in the South Point 400.

Brad Keselowski (+2500)

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 13

Like Busch, Brad Keselowski has been a strong driver at Las Vegas. However, unlike Busch, Keselowski has actually won a race this year and made the Playoffs. Unfortunately, the #6 car was eliminated at the conclusion of the opening round.

With that said, Keselowski is one of three active drivers to have three career Las Vegas wins. Additionally, he’s won both races at this track. In 22 starts, Keselowski also has nine Top 5s, 13 Top 10s and an 11.6 average finish.

The #6 car finished 4^th last year and could follow Busch into the Top 10 this weekend.

The Best Top 5 Bet for the South Point 400

William Byron (+150) is my choice for the best Top 5 bet this weekend in Las Vegas. There are a few reasons why I’m taking the #24 car. First, his odds provide great value. Guys like Larson have highly overvalued odds to finish in the Top 5, which is why we’re avoiding betting on them.

Second, Byron has three consecutive Top 3 finishes in the Playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if he extended that streak to four in a row.

The third and final reason why I’m taking Byron as my Top 5 bet, is that he’s put together a decent run at Vegas over the last five races. During that span, he has a win, a Top 5, and four Top 10s. He’s not a slam dunk like Larson is, but his value is just too good to pass up.

The Best Top 10 Bet for the South Point 400

Kyle Busch (-125) is my choice for a Top 10 bet this weekend. Yes, there are other drivers that have a better shot at finishing in the Top 10 but their odds are absurdly high. There’s no value to them. Busch still offers decent value.

In 26 starts, Busch has 15 Top 10s, which is a 57.7% Top 10 finishing rate. However, he has six Top 10s in the last eight Vegas races. Furthermore, in the last four South Point 400 races, Busch has four Top 6 finishes.

NASCAR South Point 400 Predictions: Who Wins?

The pressure is mounting for the eight final drivers. They all have just three chances to advance to the Final 4 round. With that said, everyone of them needs a strong start to the Round of 8.

I like for Larson, Byron, Logano, Blaney, and Reddick, Keselowski or Busch to finish in the Top 5. From there, I think the race comes down to Larson, Byron or Logano.

Can Larson actually win three Las Vegas races in a row? Yes, he can. But, do we really want to bet on that happening? And, lastly, do we think Larson is going to win two Playoff races in a row?

Larson is my favorite driver, but I’m going to buck the trend and take Byron to win. I don’t think you can go wrong on any of these three drivers.

Bet: William Byron (+800)

NASCAR South Point 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR South Point 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3: Byron or Logano (+120)

As you can see from above, I’m very high on both William Byron and Joey Logano. Both drivers have won at this track before. Additionally, both drivers are in the Top 9 for average finishes at Las Vegas.

Byron has been on a tear in the Playoffs with three consecutive Top 3 finishes. Logano has surprised many this postseason and he can continue that trend this weekend.

Bet: Either Byron or Logano To Finish in Top 3 (+120)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+100)
• Toyota (+175)
• Ford (+325)

I picked Byron’s Chevy to win this race. However, it could easily be Larson’s Chevy as well. With that said, I am going to hedge my bets here, by taking Ford.

I love the value that Ford offers considering that Logano, Keselowski, and Blaney all drive Fords. All three drivers could potentially finish in the Top 5 and challenge for the checkered flag. Let’s not forget that Keselowski and Logano have combined for six victories at Las Vegas.

Bet: Ford (+325)

South Point 400 Race Group Winner

• Christopher Bell (+180)
• Joey Logano (+280)
• Chase Elliott (+280)
• Kyle Busch (+325)

I’m very high on Joey Logano this weekend. I think Vegas is a track that suits him well. His odds for this group prop bet are too appealing for me to pass up.

I’m also big on Kyle Busch this weekend. Yet, Busch’s lack of wins, Playoff appearance, and overall success this year, makes me less confident in his chances to beat out Logano.

Furthermore, Bell (19.1) and Elliott (18.6) have far worse average finishes than Logano (9.9) and Busch (11.2). The two latter drivers rank third and fourth respectively for average finishes among the field.

I like Logano’s chances to contend for the checkered flag and to win this group bet.

Bet: Joey Logano (+280)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+135)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+250)
• Team Penske (+550)
• 23XI Racing (+650)
• RFK Racing (+1400)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1400)
• Richard Childress Racing (+1600)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+2200)
• Spire Motorsports (+5000)

I think that Byron and Larson will finish in the Top 3 and challenge for the win. Although I have Byron winning the race, both drivers are teammates on Hendrick Motorsports.

I hedged my race winning wager on the previous prop bet, so I feel more confident in sticking with the favorites for this NASCAR prop. Additionally, Hendrick Motorsports also features Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott. Wouldn’t it be cool if Bowman could get revenge by upstaging the Playoff field this weekend?

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+135)

Winning Car Number

• Over 13.5 (-110)
• Under 13.5 (-110)

Last weekend, my favorite bet for the entire Bank of America at the ROVAL 400 race was Under 16.5. This weekend, I’m looking at the Under once again. Although, this week it’s a little bit tougher than the Charlotte race last Sunday.

Yes, Byron (24) and Logano (22) are two drivers that I picked to finish in the Top 5 and the Top 3. However, the Under just includes more contenders. So, taking the Under makes for a smarter play on this race.

The Under includes: Larson (5), Keselowski (6), Busch (8), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11) and Blaney (12). As you can see, there are several drivers in this list that I picked for my Top 5.

Bet: Under 13.5 (-110)