Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Picks and Predictions October 20th 2024

On 4-game skid, Browns get Nick Chubb back vs. Bengals

The Bengals are favored on the road in their week seven matchup against the Browns. The game, set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 20th at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, is an important one for both teams. The Bengals are -231 on the money line, with the Browns at +189. Cincinnati has a point spread of -5, and the over/under line is 43 points. You can catch this one on CBS.

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland Key Information

• Teams: Bengals at Browns
• Where: Huntington Bank Field Cleveland
• Date: Sunday, October 20th
• Betting Odds CIN -231 | CLE +189 O/U 43

The Bengals Can Win If…

Heading into week 7, the Bengals have a 2-4 record, putting them 3rd in the AFC North. They are 0-3 at home but 2-1 on the road, including a 17-7 win over the Giants in week 6. Cincinnati was favored by 4.5 points and covered the spread with a 10-point victory. The O/U line was 46 points, and the teams combined for 24.

Our projections give the Bengals a 35.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 5.5% chance of winning the division. They rank 14th in our NFL power rankings. Cincinnati has a +0.8 scoring margin and is 3-3 ATS. Their O/U record is 4-2, with their games averaging 51.5 points.

Joe Burrow threw for 208 yards in week 6, completing 19 of 28 passes without a touchdown or interception, but he was sacked 4 times. Burrow’s top target was Tee Higgins, who caught 7 passes for 77 yards. In week 5, Burrow had a huge game, throwing for 392 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Ravens, with Ja’Marr Chase catching 10 passes for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Heading into week 7, the Bengals rank 8th in the NFL with 26.2 points per game. They are 12th in yards per game (349.8) and 7th in passing yards per game (249.7), despite ranking 27th in rushing attempts and 26th in rushing yards per game. Cincinnati ranks 4th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 45.8% success rate.

In their 17-7 win over the Giants, the Bengals’ defense allowed just 190 passing yards on 4.6 yards per attempt. They defended 33.3% of the Giants’ third down attempts, and limited them to 53.7% completions. Additionally, they didn’t allow any passing touchdowns.

On the ground, the Giants had 119 rushing yards on 31 attempts against Cincinnati, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt. The Bengals’ defense also came up with one interception and two sacks in the game.

• Through their last three games, the Bengals have a record of 2-1. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 2-1 in those same games.
• Cincinnati has put together a record of 4-6 in their last ten games (regular season). The team’s record vs the spread was just 4-5-1, in addition to an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Browns Can Win If…

The Browns head into week 7 against the Bengals looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which includes a 20-16 loss to the Eagles in week 6. Cleveland was unable to pull off the upset but did cover the spread, entering the game as 8.5-point underdogs. This puts their ATS record at 2-4, with both of their wins coming as underdogs.

With a 1-5 record, the Browns currently rank 27th in our NFL power rankings and have just a 2.7% chance of making the playoffs. Their O/U record stands at 2-4, with an average of 39.3 points scored in their games this season.

Heading into week 7, the Browns are 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They rank 27th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 15.8, and are last in the league in yards per game with 240.2. Cleveland is 30th in passing yards per game (143) despite being 10th in passing attempts. They are 28th in rushing yards per game (97.2) and 24th in rushing attempts.

Deshaun Watson had a passer rating of 90 in week 6, going 16/23 for 168 yards. He was sacked 5 times after being sacked 7 times in week 5. Amari Cooper led the Browns with 42 receiving yards in week 6, and Pierre Strong Jr. had 43 rushing yards. Cleveland converted 25% of their 3rd downs in week 6 after a 7.7% conversion rate in week 5.

In their 20-16 loss to the Eagles, the Browns’ defense allowed 256 passing yards on just 16 completions. Philadelphia managed to convert on 35.7% of their third down attempts. The Browns’ secondary gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed the Eagles to gain 10.2 yards per passing attempt.

On the ground, the Browns’ defense held the Eagles to 116 yards on 36 attempts, giving them a yards per attempt average of just 3.2. Despite this, the Browns were only able to come away with one sack in the game.

• Across Cleveland’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Against the spread, Cleveland went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Browns have gone 7-3 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-3 and an over-under mark of 3-6-1.

The Lean

With the point spread sitting at 43, we are leaning towards taking the under for this week seven matchup between the Browns and Bengals. Our prediction is that these teams finish with 40 combined points, making the under a solid play with some value based on the current line.

For a point-spread pick, we like the Browns to not only win this one, but to cover as home underdogs. Our projected final score is 25-15 in favor of Cleveland, making them a good bet at +5.

Running back Nick Chubb is set to make his much-anticipated return for the Cleveland Browns, aiming to reignite their offense when they face the visiting Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon. Chubb’s comeback could provide a crucial boost to a Browns team struggling to find its footing after four consecutive losses.

NFL Latest Picks & Previews

Nick Chubb’s Impact on the Browns’ Offense

Nick Chubb, one of the NFL’s premier running backs, will step onto the field for the first time since suffering a knee injury in Week 2 that prematurely ended his 2023 season. His absence has been a key factor in Cleveland’s offensive woes. The Browns currently rank near the bottom of the league, averaging only 15.8 points per game, the third fewest in the NFL.

With a 1-5 record and a sputtering offense, Chubb’s return could not come at a more opportune moment. Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson expressed how vital Chubb is not only to the team’s performance but also to the morale of the entire organization and its fanbase.

“Having Nick back is huge,” Watson said. “He brings energy, leadership, and a level of toughness that we’ve been missing. Hopefully, he can give us that spark to get things going.”

Chubb’s return, however, is just part of the puzzle. Despite his presence, the Browns’ offensive struggles run deeper, with inconsistencies in their passing game and an offensive line that has faced challenges in protecting Watson and creating opportunities for their running backs.

Challenges Ahead for Cleveland

Head coach Kevin Stefanski is aware that simply having Chubb back on the field won’t solve all of Cleveland’s issues. Stefanski emphasized the need for “sound offensive football,” citing the importance of ball security, efficiency, and execution on critical downs.

“We have to play smart, efficient football to help ourselves out of this hole,” Stefanski said. “It’s not just about one player; it’s about everyone doing their job to move the ball and put points on the board.”

The Browns will also need to adjust to recent roster changes. Star wide receiver Amari Cooper was traded to the Buffalo Bills earlier this week, leaving a void in their passing game. Compounding matters, running back Jerome Ford, who had been filling in for Chubb, sustained a hamstring injury in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and did not practice Wednesday.

Cleveland’s injury report adds further complications, with key defensive players such as Myles Garrett (Achilles) and Denzel Ward (hamstring) limited in practice. These setbacks put additional pressure on the team to perform on both sides of the ball.

Bengals Seek to Break Cleveland Losing Streak

The Cincinnati Bengals, who are also dealing with their own early-season struggles, come into this game with a 2-4 record. After starting the season 0-3, Cincinnati has turned things around, winning two of their last three games, including a 17-7 victory over the New York Giants in Week 6. The Bengals’ defense, which has struggled for much of the season, finally held an opponent under 24 points in that game.

Despite this progress, Cincinnati faces a significant challenge when playing in Cleveland. The Bengals have lost six consecutive games on the road against the Browns, allowing an average of 27.5 points per contest in those matchups.

Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo made sure his players are aware of their struggles at Cleveland’s FirstEnergy Stadium.

“We talked about it in our defensive meetings. We haven’t left that stadium happy in a long time, and that needs to change,” Anarumo said. “We know what this Cleveland team can do, especially with Chubb back in the lineup. It’s on us to step up and play better.”

Key Matchup: Browns’ Rushing Attack vs. Bengals’ Defense

A crucial factor in this game will be how well Chubb performs against a Bengals defense that has been inconsistent throughout the season. Cincinnati’s ability to contain the Browns’ ground game could dictate the outcome, especially with Cleveland’s passing game weakened by injuries and the trade of Cooper.

For Cincinnati, a solid defensive performance is essential to keep Cleveland from controlling the pace of the game. Their defensive line will need to focus on shutting down Chubb early, preventing him from breaking long runs that could give the Browns the offensive balance they desperately need.

Injury Concerns for Both Teams

Both teams come into Sunday’s game dealing with significant injuries. For the Browns, the aforementioned hamstring injury to Jerome Ford leaves them relying even more heavily on Chubb. Additionally, defensive stars Garrett and Ward remain limited in practice, while running back D’Onta Foreman (groin) is also on the injury list.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are in a relatively better position, with cornerback DJ Turner II (ankle) the only major injury concern. Turner was limited in practice on Wednesday but is expected to be available for Sunday’s game.

Division Stakes: First AFC North Game for the Browns

Sunday’s matchup is Cleveland’s first AFC North divisional game of the season, and it carries added weight. In 2023, the Browns went 3-3 in division play, and another loss here could severely hamper their chances of turning the season around. For Cincinnati, a win in Cleveland would not only break their losing streak but also position them better in the competitive AFC North race.

Conclusion

As Nick Chubb returns to the lineup, all eyes will be on whether he can spark a Browns team desperate to end a four-game losing streak. While his presence gives Cleveland a major boost, the team’s broader offensive struggles and mounting injuries present significant challenges. Meanwhile, the Bengals, coming off a win and aiming to break their six-game losing streak in Cleveland, will need a strong defensive effort to contain Chubb and keep the Browns’ offense in check.

In a matchup that could set the tone for the rest of the season for both teams, this game is pivotal. Can the Browns rally around Chubb’s return and reverse their fortunes, or will the Bengals finally conquer their Cleveland curse and continue their climb back into contention?