San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Predictions October 20th 2024

49ers vs Chiefs October 20th 2024

On Sunday, October 20th, the 49ers will host the Chiefs at 4:25 ET on FOX. The 49ers are favored with a money line of -121 and a point spread of -1.5. This week seven non-conference matchup at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA will see the Chiefs with a money line of +101. The over/under line is set at 46.5 points.

Kansas City vs. San Francisco Key Information

Heading into week 7, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC standings with a 5-0 record, including a 1-0 mark in the division. Our projections give Kansas City a 99.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 93.7% chance of winning the AFC West. They rank 3rd in our NFL power rankings. The Chiefs have been favored in all of their games so far and are 3-1-1 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +6.6 points per game.

Kansas City covered the spread in their week 5 win over the Saints, beating New Orleans 26-13 at home. The O/U line was 43 points, and the teams combined for 39, marking the third straight under in Chiefs games. Their O/U record this season is 2-3.

Patrick Mahomes has been consistent in his last three games, throwing for 331 yards (28/39) in week 5, 245 yards (19/29) in week 4, and 217 yards (26/39) in week 3. However, he has thrown one interception in each of these games, with no touchdowns in week 5. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the team in receiving in week 5, with 7 catches for 130 yards, while Kareem Hunt rushed for 102 yards on 27 carries.

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Heading into week 7, the Chiefs rank 13th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 23.6 points per game. They are 11th in total offense, with 354.6 yards per game, and 9th in passing yards, with 236.8 per game. On the ground, they rank 16th in the league, with 117.8 rushing yards per game.

In their most recent game, the Chiefs’ defense gave up just 46 rushing yards on 15 attempts to the Saints. They also allowed 174 passing yards on 20 completions. Despite this, the Chiefs gave up two passing touchdowns. Overall, the Chiefs’ defense held the Saints to just 220 total yards in their 26-13 win.

The Chiefs’ defense forced one interception and held the Saints to a 40% conversion rate on third down. They managed one sack and had three more quarterback hits than their opponents.

Heading into week 7, the 49ers hold a 3-3 record, which is good enough to put them in first place in the NFC West. After a disappointing home loss to the Cardinals in week 5, San Francisco bounced back with a 36-24 win over the Seahawks in week 6. The 49ers were 3.5-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 3-3. They have been favored in all of their games so far this season.

According to our projections, the 49ers have a 62.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 57.5% chance of winning the NFC West. They rank 4th in our NFL power rankings going into week 7. Their O/U record is 4-2, with their games averaging 48.7 points compared to an average line of 45.8.

In our offensive power rankings, the 49ers sit 6th in the NFL, and they are 7th in scoring, averaging 27 points per game. They have been strong on 3rd down, converting 45.7% of the time, which ranks 5th in the league. San Francisco leads the NFL in red zone attempts, but they rank 23rd in conversion percentage, scoring on just 14.8% of their trips inside the 20.

Against the Seahawks in week 6, the 49ers scored 36 points, including 13 in the 4th quarter. Brock Purdy threw for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns, posting a passer rating of 129. Deebo Samuel Sr. led the team with 102 receiving yards, and Isaac Guerendo rushed for 99 yards on 10 carries.

The 49ers’ defense came up with two interceptions in their most recent game against the Seahawks, despite allowing 306 passing yards. They picked up a 36-24 win, holding Seattle to just 52 rushing yards on 20 attempts. San Francisco defended the pass well, giving up only 5.9 yards per attempt and allowing just one passing touchdown.

Although they allowed the Seahawks to convert on 43.8% of their third downs, the 49ers’ defense managed to limit big plays and kept the pressure on the quarterback, finishing with one sack and winning the quarterback hit battle by one.

For this week seven matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers, we have the 49ers coming out on top by a score of 23-22. Despite the Chiefs being the slight favorites at +1.5, our pick is to take the 49ers to not only win but cover the spread at home.

As for the best bet on the over/under line, we like taking the under, with a projected combined score of 45 points and the O/U line sitting at 46.5 points.

49ers Try Again to Solve Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

The San Francisco 49ers have a daunting challenge ahead as they prepare to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. This matchup offers a chance for redemption after the 49ers’ heartbreak in Super Bowl LVIII, where they fell to the Chiefs in overtime. Kansas City is riding high on an 11-game win streak, including the dramatic 25-22 victory that sealed the Lombardi Trophy last February.

As San Francisco (3-3) comes off a critical 10-day break following a win over NFC West rival Seattle, head coach Kyle Shanahan emphasized the importance of every game, but stopped short of calling this one a “must win.” Still, the desire to defeat Patrick Mahomes and the reigning champions is evident.

Chiefs’ Dominance and Momentum

Kansas City (5-0) remains a juggernaut, seeking a three-peat while showing no signs of slowing down. The Chiefs had a bye last week, which historically bodes well for them under head coach Andy Reid. Reid boasts a remarkable 21-4 record following bye weeks, a daunting stat for the 49ers.

Despite being undefeated, Kansas City has been dealing with injuries, including to top running back Isiah Pacheco and leading wide receivers Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice, who are all on injured reserve. Yet, Mahomes has continued to make magic, recently reconnecting with tight end Travis Kelce and rejuvenating the running game with Kareem Hunt.

“We’re excited for the guys who continue to step up,” Mahomes said. “It’s about improving each week, and I think we’re doing that.”

The 49ers’ Quest for Revenge

The 49ers have struggled to find a way past Mahomes, who holds a 4-0 career record against San Francisco, including the 2020 Super Bowl win. Mahomes has dominated the 49ers, averaging 339 passing yards per game and accounting for 11 touchdowns in those matchups.

Linebacker Fred Warner, frustrated by the inability to beat Mahomes, summed up the challenge: “They still got 15 back there. I have yet to beat him. It’s an important game for us to try and get over that hump.”

San Francisco’s defense has been formidable, but injuries have affected key players. 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey remains sidelined, while backup running back Jordan Mason is also dealing with a shoulder sprain. Wide receiver Jauan Jennings (hip) and kicker Jake Moody (ankle) are both questionable for Sunday.

Mahomes, Chiefs’ Offense Flying Under the Radar

While Mahomes’ statistics haven’t reached his peak production levels, his ability to win remains unmatched. Mahomes has thrown for six touchdowns and six interceptions so far this season, numbers lower than his usual pace. Kansas City’s offense ranks 15th in scoring (23.6 points per game) and ninth in passing yards (236.8 per game). Yet, as Shanahan noted, Mahomes’ ability to come through in critical moments is undeniable.

“He’s as good as it gets,” Shanahan said. “All of their games except for one have come down to the last possession, and he’s as good as it gets in that situation.”

Despite some offensive slumps, Kansas City has benefited from the resurgence of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kelce’s consistent contributions. Kelce has 16 receptions for 159 yards in the past two games, becoming Mahomes’ reliable target when it matters most.

49ers’ Strong Start Offensively, Defensive Tests

Even with a rotating cast of offensive players, the 49ers have put up strong numbers this season. They rank ninth in points (27.0 per game), second in total yards (420 per game), and third in rushing (158 yards per game). San Francisco’s defense, however, will be tested by Mahomes, who has historically found ways to exploit them.

San Francisco’s defense has faced injury setbacks but remains solid. The 49ers’ ability to take the ball away, a weakness of the Chiefs (who have only forced four turnovers this season), could be a key to victory.

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The Stakes for Both Teams

A win for Kansas City would push them to 6-0, making them the 10th defending Super Bowl champion to start a season undefeated through six games. It would also continue Mahomes’ undefeated streak against the 49ers.

For San Francisco, a victory would not only mark an important milestone in their season but could also help Shanahan break his winless streak against Andy Reid. More importantly, it could give the 49ers the confidence they need as they push toward a potential postseason run.

Conclusion

The Chiefs are the team to beat, and the 49ers know it. While Kansas City is missing key offensive weapons, they still have Patrick Mahomes at the helm, and that’s usually enough. For San Francisco, overcoming Mahomes and the Chiefs would be a major statement — and a boost they desperately need in a season filled with ups and downs.