Guardians Aim to Even ALCS Against Yankees After Game 3 Thriller

At 8:08 PM ET, the Yankees and Guardians will face off in an AL matchup. This one is taking place at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the Guardians will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Yankees are currently 1st in the AL East with a record of 94-68, while the Guardians are 1st in the AL Central at 92-69.

New York is starting Luis Gil, while the Guardians have Gavin Williams on the mound. The money line odds have the Yankees at -123 compared to the Guardians at +105. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

New York vs. Cleveland Key Information

Teams: Yankees at Guardians
Where: Progressive Field Cleveland
Date: Friday, October 18th
Betting Odds NYY -123 | CLE +105 O/U 8

The Yankees Can Win If…

As the Yankees prepare for game four of their series against Cleveland, they hold a 2-1 lead and are on the road. New York went 50-31 away from home this season, compared to 44-37 at home. As road favorites, they posted a 35-26 record.

New York’s run line record for the season is 87-82, including 50-34 on the road. When favored, they went 65-78 against the run line. Their games have averaged 9.1 total runs this season, while today’s over/under line sits at 8 runs. The Yankees’ over/under record is 89-75, and the over has hit in their last two games.

New York is sending right-hander Luis Gil to the mound today vs. the Guardians. He has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 15-7 with an ERA of 3.50. Gil’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his 29 appearances, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 10.15 strikeouts per nine innings. Gil’s last outing came on September 28th, where he took the loss, giving up six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

So far this season, the Yankees have been the best home run hitting team in the league, and they are also near the top of the league in runs per game, at 5.0. New York’s offense has been especially good on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in team batting average and have the league’s 3rd best on-base percentage.

Not only do the Yankees have the league’s top offense, but they also have the league’s top two home run hitters in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Judge has gone deep 58 times this season, while Soto has 41 homers. Judge is also leading the MLB in RBIs, with 144. In his last five games, Giancarlo Stanton has gone 7/18 with three homers.

The Yankees are 6-4 in their last ten games.
Over their last five games, the Yankees are 3-2 vs. the run line.
New York has an over/under record of 5-5 in their last ten games.
The Yankees have an average of 4.4 runs per game over their last five games.
Across their last ten road games, the Yankees are 7-3
Looking back across the Yankees last five games as the favorite, they are 4-1
New York has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
In their ten most recent road games, the Yankees have averaged 4.8 runs per game on offense

The Guardians Can Win If…

Facing a must-win game four at home, the Guardians are looking to avoid falling behind 3-1 in their series against the Yankees. Cleveland finished the regular season with a 92-69 record, including a 50-30 mark at home and 42-39 on the road. They’ve lost two straight games in this series but have won their last two at home.

Cleveland’s run line record for the season is 85-84, with a home run-scoring margin of +0.8 compared to +0.3 on the road. They’ve also covered the run line in their last two home games. The Guardians’ over/under record is 72-85, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line of 8 runs matches their season average, with 44.1% of their games having higher totals.

Gavin Williams will be looking to pitch better at home as he comes into the game with a record of 0-7 and an ERA of 6.98 at home. Overall, he is 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA. Williams has made 16 starts and three of them have been quality starts. His most recent outing came against the Cardinals, where he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up one earned run on four hits. Williams finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Williams’ ERA for the season is 4.86, and he has a WHIP of 1.37.

Jose Ramirez is having a strong season at the plate for the Guardians, as he is batting .279 with 39 homers and 118 RBIs. However, he has gone just 4/19 in his last five games. Josh Naylor is also near the top of the league in RBIs, as his 108 RBIs is 6th best in the MLB. Naylor is batting .243 for the season and has gone deep 31 times.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are among the league leaders in fewest strikeouts. They are batting just .238 as a team, which is 14th in the league. Cleveland is 8th in home runs and has the league’s 11th best home run total.

The Guardians are 4-6 in their last ten games.
Over their last five games, the Guardians are 2-3 vs. the run line.
Cleveland has an over/under record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.
The Guardians have an average of 4.8 runs per game over their last five games.
Across their last ten home games, the Guardians are 5-5
Looking back across the Guardians last five games as the favorite, they are 2-3
Cleveland has gone 1-2 in their last three games as the underdog
In their ten most recent road games, the Guardians have averaged 3.7 runs per game on offense

The Lean

For a money-line pick, our lean would be to take the Yankees to come out on top. And as for how we would play the over/under line, we would go with the under, as this is our lowest projected scoring game of the day. The Yankees offense is projected to finish with more home runs than the Guardians, and Gavin Williams is our highest projected strikeout pitcher of the day.

Guardians Aim to Level ALCS vs. Yankees After Game 3 Stunner

The Cleveland Guardians are riding high after a dramatic comeback in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS), overcoming a late-game deficit to secure a thrilling 7-5 extra-inning win over the New York Yankees. Now, with the series at 2-1 in favor of the Yankees, Cleveland looks to tie things up in Game 4 on Friday night.

The Guardians were one out away from falling into a 3-0 series hole, but Jhonkensy Noel hit a two-run pinch-hit homer in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game. Then, in the 10th inning, David Fry delivered a two-run blast to seal the win, sending Cleveland fans into a frenzy.

“It sucks losing like that, but it was kind of a classic game,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “We’ll be ready to roll tomorrow.”

Despite a late surge from New York—highlighted by back-to-back homers from Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton—Cleveland showed their trademark resilience. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt praised his team’s fight: “That’s exactly who we are. We never quit.”

Game 4 Starters: Williams vs. Gil

Game 4 will see two young pitchers face off as Cleveland sends rookie Gavin Williams to the mound, while New York counters with fellow rookie Luis Gil.

Williams, who went 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA during the regular season, hasn’t pitched since Sept. 22 but is confident heading into his playoff debut. “They’ve got a tough lineup,” Williams said of the Yankees, “but I faced them earlier in the year… I’m just going to attack them.”

Gil, who posted a 15-7 record with a 3.50 ERA this season, will also make his postseason debut. In his two career starts against Cleveland, Gil struggled with a 6.14 ERA, and he’ll need to tighten his command to avoid giving the Guardians any free passes.

Bullpen Management and Injuries

With both teams relying heavily on their bullpens in Game 3, managing those arms will be crucial in Game 4. The Yankees could be forced to adjust their bullpen strategy if right-hander Ian Hamilton is unavailable due to calf tightness, potentially calling up Clayton Beeter or Mark Leiter Jr..

Cleveland’s bullpen will be under pressure after using seven pitchers in the previous game, and they’ll need another strong showing to back up Williams.

Key Matchups to Watch

Yankees’ Power Bats vs. Gavin Williams

The Yankees’ sluggers were key in Game 3 with homers from Judge and Stanton. Williams must avoid falling behind in counts and giving the Yankees opportunities to capitalize on his mistakes.

Guardians’ Resilience

The Guardians have proven they can come back in any game, as seen in Game 3. With momentum on their side and contributions from all areas of the lineup, Cleveland will look to keep the pressure on New York.

Luis Gil’s Control vs. Guardians’ Patience

Gil’s command issues, including six walks in his last outing against Cleveland, could spell trouble for the Yankees if the Guardians remain patient at the plate.

Game Outlook

Following the emotional high of Game 3, both teams will aim for a quick rebound. The Guardians are riding the momentum of a huge win and will look to even the series at home, while the Yankees are hoping for a solid performance from their rookie starter and bullpen to regain control.

With two relatively untested pitchers on the mound, expect the bullpens to play a significant role in this game. Both teams will be eager to gain an edge, knowing the importance of every game in this tightly contested series.

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Prediction

The Guardians’ resilience and home crowd energy could push them to another dramatic win in Game 4. If Williams can navigate the Yankees’ dangerous lineup and Cleveland’s bullpen holds strong, the series may head back to New York tied.

Cleveland Guardians vs Ny Yankees Picks and Predictions October 18th 2024